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klw

NNE Winter 2014-2015 Thread Part 2

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So no talking about Sunday night?

 

The BTV NWS is certainly talking about the possibilities of Sunday through Tuesday in their forecast discussion, but it will probably be a while before precipitation types and timing will be set down:

 

"…DETAILS WILL BECOME IMPORTANT BUT ARE DIFFICULT TO FULLY RESOLVE AT THIS TIME."

 

Obviously the best result for the Central and Northern Greens would be to get snow as the main system passes, and then have that upslope potential develop.  I'm sure PF, adk, and others will start talking about upslope possibilities as we get closer, but when the BTV NWS starts talking about deep, vertically stacked lows getting into positions to the northeast of us, that can be good:

 

"DEEP...VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW PULLS SLOWLY AWAY THROUGH SRN QUEBEC/ST. LAWRENCE SEAWAY DURING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AFTER A LULL WITH THE POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL DRYSLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON... BROAD REGION OF 90+% 1000-500MB RH REMAINS WITHIN NWLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF OROGRAPHIC/UPSLOPE SNOWFALL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW IN UPSLOPE AREAS INCLUDING THE NRN ADIRONDACKS....AND CENTRAL/NRN GREENS (AND WESTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES)."

 

At least as it stands, the Greens could get into the synoptic and/or upslope, and two chances for snow is better than just one.

 

Full long term forecast discussion from the BTV NWS pasted below:

 

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AS OF 346 AM EST THURSDAY...AN ACTIVE PERIOD EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWN BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS...AND MOST RECENT FORECAST CYCLE ALSO DISPLAYING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS TRANQUIL WITH LARGE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE MOVING EWD OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD SET UP A S-SWLY RETURN FLOW...AND SOUTHERLY TO SWLY WINDS (ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS) SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A BIT COMPARED TO EXPECTED LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT. SAT NIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS...BUT MAY SEE A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NERN VT.

 

DEEP MERIDIONAL TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY BECOMES

THE PRIMARY FOCUS LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE THE 500MB TROUGH WILL ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AND RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE NC/VA COASTLINES SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THIS LOW SPINS UP QUICKLY AND PUSHES NNEWD. THE ECMWF IS A BIT QUICKER AND FURTHER INLAND WITH THE LOW TRACK...SUGGESTING EARLIER ONSET OF SNOW SUNDAY AFTN...FOLLOWED BY MORE OF A WINTRY MIX AND EVEN SOME RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES A 986MB LOW NEAR ALB AT 12Z MONDAY...WHEREAS THE 00Z GFS HAS A 991MB SURFACE LOW OVER ERN CT AT 12Z MONDAY. THE GFS SUGGESTS A SOMEWHAT COLDER SOLUTION WITH MAINLY SNOW FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD ACROSS NRN NY...AND A MIX OF SNOW WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES FOR CENTRAL/ERN VT. THESE DETAILS WILL BECOME IMPORTANT BUT ARE DIFFICULT TO FULLY RESOLVE AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES LIKELY POPS (60-70%) SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY MORNING AND IS BASED ON THE COLDER GFS THERMAL PROFILES AT THIS POINT. SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AND LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES TAP SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN QPF VALUES OF 1-1.5" (LIQUID EQUIVALENT). QUESTION WILL BE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THAT AXIS AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL PROFILES. THERE IS THE PROSPECT OF SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM SNOW/MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR ALL SNOW ACROSS NRN NY. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS DETAILS BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED.

 

DEEP...VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW PULLS SLOWLY AWAY THROUGH SRN QUEBEC/ST. LAWRENCE SEAWAY DURING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AFTER A LULL WITH THE POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL DRYSLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON... BROAD REGION OF 90+% 1000-500MB RH REMAINS WITHIN NWLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF OROGRAPHIC/UPSLOPE SNOWFALL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW IN UPSLOPE AREAS INCLUDING THE NRN ADIRONDACKS....AND CENTRAL/NRN GREENS (AND WESTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES).

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Sunday is interesting. I'm getting the sense it will be a messy storm for much of the Green spine and points eastward.  With the negative tilt indicated in the 500mb trough the surface low feature will be inclined to track n/nw inland through Mass and So. VT with a surge of moisture laden atlantic air. That spells snow to sleet to rain for spine east.  I think the big winner as it stands now is the ADK high peaks...at least from synoptic snowfall.

 

There is a pretty strong orographic feature appearing monday night -tuesday am but that of course is contingent on the track of the low.  

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Meh. Read gyx discussion and no consensus yet. Maybe just more cold and dry.

 

06z gfs still seems as self-contradictory as we saw yesterday.  Cold high to the north, LP tracks off NJ, then over ACK and EPO, central Maine getting NE winds...and rain?  (Maybe mix in foothills, paste bomb in mts and north.)  If it were April 15 rather than Jan, I could see such a track producing a mess, but Sun-Mon is in the coldest week (on avg) of winter.

 

Edit:  What a difference some clouds make.  Yesterday my -24 was nearly as cold as BML.  This morning, they were clear and got to -20 or below, while I had clouds and low teens, at least 30F milder than them.

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i recall a storm scenario like this maybe 5-6 years ago.  I usually drive up the taconic, but drove east and took 91 to 89 instead.  It was snow in the hudson valley  but changed to rain as I went east.. All rain the whole way up 91/89 until I cut back west where i  hit snow coming over the roxbury gap.  all snow on route 100.  i'd sign for that right now.

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Meh. Read gyx discussion and no consensus yet. Maybe just more cold and dry.

I got a completely different impression....

 

From HPC:

SUCCESSIVE CYCLES OF GUIDANCE ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING CONFIDENCE

IN THE EXISTENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT STORM THAT SHOULD DEEPEN AS IT

TRACKS NWD NEAR THE EAST COAST SUN-MON. HOWEVER CRUCIAL DETAILS

IN TRACK/STRENGTH WILL TAKE ADDED TIME TO WORK OUT SINCE THE

SOURCE ENERGY ALOFT IS STILL OVER THE ERN PAC AND NOT SCHEDULED TO

REACH THE WEST COAST UNTIL AROUND EARLY FRI. STEADILY DEEPER

TREND OF THE SFC LOW IN ECMWF MEANS OVER THE PAST 24-36 HRS SEEMS

TO SUPPORT PARTIAL WEIGHT OF OPERATIONAL SOLNS THAT ARE STRONGER

THAN THE MEANS.

 

From GYX:

THE MEAT OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD COMES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO

MONDAY /DAY 4 TO 5/ WITH A STORM. AGAIN TONIGHT A WIDE VARIETY OF

OPTIONS. GFS AND EURO BOTH BRING A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE UP

THE COAST...WITH AN UPSTREAM TILTED TROUGH ALOFT RESULTING IN A

LOW TRACKING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WITH A VERY

WARM AND WET AIR MASS. AT THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM THE

CANADIAN KEEPS UP THE STATUS QUO WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW AND

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY

IS INCREASING BUT REMAIN SKEPTICAL OF THE VERY WARM SOLUTION. THIS

ENTIRE STORM IS DEPENDENT ON THE BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST

BREAKING DOWN AND THEN A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC

PUSHING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS IN TIME TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE

SOUTHEAST US. WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME MORE CONSISTENCY BEFORE FULLY

BUYING INTO THE WARM AIR. IF THE WARM AIR DOES COME IN THE FINAL

CONSIDERATION WILL BE WHETHER IT MAKES IT DOWN TO GROUND LEVEL.

WITH SOLID SNOW COVER AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD TRAPPING THE

COLD AT THE GROUND FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE GOING TO

RAIN IS AN OPTION TO THROWN IN THE MIX AS WELL. 

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Without looking at all the maps but going off of what the results sounds like, the scenario for Sun/Mon sounds a bit like the one a couple of weeks ago that lead to the big snows in western VT and NNY but a mixed bag to the east of the CT River.

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i recall a storm scenario like this maybe 5-6 years ago.  I usually drive up the taconic, but drove east and took 91 to 89 instead.  It was snow in the hudson valley  but changed to rain as I went east.. All rain the whole way up 91/89 until I cut back west where i  hit snow coming over the roxbury gap.  all snow on route 100.  i'd sign for that right now.

Bite your tongue :gun_bandana: .  I'm on the wrong side of Roxbury Gap in that scenario. 

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Without looking at all the maps but going off of what the results sounds like, the scenario for Sun/Mon sounds a bit like the one a couple of weeks ago that lead to the big snows in western VT and NNY but a mixed bag to the east of the CT River.

 

I would sign on for that.  However, some of the solutions show a slightly further east SLP and a really skinny precip. shield.  I'm not sure how real that is but in those solutions it looks like light snow for the eastern slope of the greens and nothing for anyone to the west.

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I would sign on for that.  However, some of the solutions show a slightly further east SLP and a really skinny precip. shield.  I'm not sure how real that is but in those solutions it looks like light snow for the eastern slope of the greens and nothing for anyone to the west.

you and me, floating in powder on monday morning.

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Without looking at all the maps but going off of what the results sounds like, the scenario for Sun/Mon sounds a bit like the one a couple of weeks ago that lead to the big snows in western VT and NNY but a mixed bag to the east of the CT River.

 

I think it pushes east, wouldn't surprise me if we don't get much precip at all except wrap around orographic snow showers.  The ECMWF is definitely the westward outlier.  The zone of heavy snow will be very very narrow.

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  The zone of heavy snow will be very very narrow.

That looks to be the problem.  Such a narrow area that will get snow.  Slight shifts change that strip so big bust potential.  I have not been paying too much attention till this PM but the trend seems to be east, correct?   If we miss out up here would be fun to watch the game in Foxboro if they got in on the action.  A heavy wet snow would lead to all kinds of logistic problems but the selfish side of me says "let it happen!"  

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I think it pushes east, wouldn't surprise me if we don't get much precip at all except wrap around orographic snow showers. The ECMWF is definitely the westward outlier. The zone of heavy snow will be very very narrow.

As the old addage goes, you don't want to be in the bullseye this far out. Anyway, like I said, I just want a net gain from any system that blows through.

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As the old addage goes, you don't want to be in the bullseye this far out. Anyway, like I said, I just want a net gain from any system that blows through.

 

Agreed.  I just think this system will bring us some flurries or light snow as it slides east... the 00z ECM and yesterday's 12z ECM were like over an inch of rain, so I'm all set with that.  A whiff is fine with some light snow around.  I mean maybe we thread the very small needle and end up with appreciable snowfall, but my best guess would be the Maine mountains at this point. 

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Hey whaddya know, maybe another penny or nickel coming out way with the front...haha.

Friday...Cloudy with snow showers likely in the morning...then partly sunny with a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Total snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Highs around 17. Temperature falling to around 7 above in the afternoon. West winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.

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Agreed.  I just think this system will bring us some flurries or light snow as it slides east... the 00z ECM and yesterday's 12z ECM were like over an inch of rain, so I'm all set with that.  A whiff is fine with some light snow around.  I mean maybe we thread the very small needle and end up with appreciable snowfall, but my best guess would be the Maine mountains at this point.

Yeah yeah yeah. You're just licking your chops over that negative titlty thing sparking up some upslope after all the tourists are gone so you and adk get fresh fluff Tuesday morning.

Me, I need some action for Monday. But agreed, rather dry than r&$)(&in.

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For the GYX crew...

 

Any idea if the CON data from 12/30 and 12/31 will be fixed/estimated from when the ASOS temp sensor failed? The night of the 30th into the 31st was a cold one. I had a min of 6.5F and CON is always a few colder than me on radiational cooling nights. They seem to run pretty closely with those Bear Brook (BERN3), Suncook River (NCHN3), and Soucook River (SOUN3) sites relatively near the airport.

 

CON failed after the 302351Z ob (assuming the 0Z ob is correct) and had a low temp of 18F at that point and was still falling. I see in the NOWdata that the min for the 30th went in as that 18F.

 

00Z temps at the other sites and the late midnight min at 5Z...

BERN3 14F @ 302358Z...min 5F @ 310458Z

SOUN3 16.5F @ 302345Z...min 10.1F @ 310500Z

NCHN3 14.3F @ 302345Z...min 6.4F @ 310500Z

 

I hit 11.2F before 5Z so I'd guess CON was probably closer to 6-8F for a min than 18F.

 

The following day's morning mins...

BERN3 3F

SOUN3 6.6F

NCHN3 4.0F

 

CON was given a late min of 8F after the ASOS temp came back up midday. I had a min of 6.5F so I'd assume they were actually 3-4F during the morning.

 

That's ~15F of error on the summation of the monthly mins which equates to about a 0.5F error on the monthly avg min.

 

Just curious.

Bump for Chris

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Half inch here at the office, and they dropped the turnpike to 45 mph, so a bit of an over-performer.

 

About the same here and still falling at a decent rate

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