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1/7-1/8 Brief, Intense Cold Shot


Hoosier

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LOT... 

 

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
326 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015


THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD AIR. WITH THE AREA BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND THE BUILDING HIGH TO THE WEST BREEZY WETS
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING SOUTHWEST. THE
INITIAL ISSUE WILL BE BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VSBY LEADING TO
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL SO WILL NEED TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS LATER TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL FALL TO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH LITTLE RECOVERY WEDNESDAY...THEN FALL TO -5 TO -15 OR SO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED WIND CHILL HEADLINES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS WILL
HOLD OFF ON THIS FOR NOW DUE TO THE ARRIVING SNOW EVENT. MOST AREAS
OF ILLINOIS LOOK TO MEET WARNING CRITERIA AND SOUTHERN AREAS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA MAY BE IN HIGH END ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERALL
EXPECT WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO AROUND -35 DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

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we have a window with WC Warning criteria in my hourly P and C .. for roughly 8 hours...IIRC the criteria is -30 WC's for us

Wondering why that would be?  I can understand snow advisory and winter storm warnings being different but I would think wind chill would be the same.   Maybe more likely to have more winter gear up there?  I think -25 is warning criteria here.

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Wondering why that would be? I can understand snow advisory and winter storm warnings being different but I would think wind chill would be the same. Maybe more likely to have more winter gear up there? I think -25 is warning criteria here.

Wind chill headlines are different for the same reason snow headlines are.
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Sorry, I think my post was not clear.  My question was why would WC advisory and warning criteria be different among WFO's?

 

as an extreme example....

 

NWS Tallahassee CWA .... Wind Chill Advisory with wind chills of 15°F or lower for 2 or more hours.

 

compare that to your criteria for a Wind Chill Advisory in your WFO...

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Sorry, I think my post was not clear. My question was why would WC advisory and warning criteria be different among WFO's?

Because as you go north harsh conditions occur more often and people are used to and more prepared for it.

Same thing with snow headlines. Then in the summer for heat headlines it's the same as well, though flipped.

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as an extreme example....

 

NWS Tallahassee CWA .... Wind Chill Advisory with wind chills of 15°F or lower for 2 or more hours.

 

compare that to your criteria for a Wind Chill Advisory in your WFO...

OK.  I was just wondering if it was a comfort issue or actual difference in danger of frostbite/exposure.  Thanks.

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-4° forecast for tomorrow here. -12° at night. So far WI schools are open. It's going to be cold, but quite like last January.

 

I always thought the wind chill warnings and wind chill advisory were largely based off of the time it takes to get frostbite.

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Point forecast has a high of -7 tomorrow here.  We're probably gonna be warmer than that at midnight, so -7 prob won't be the true high for the day.  Should go below zero by midnight.

 

-17 tomorrow night.

 

 

Wrong.  Looks like we're gonna have a cheap high above zero after midnight since temps are languishing this evening.  So no subzero highs officially in the book here with this outbreak.  Unofficially it's gonna be an extremely cold day though with temps well below zero all day tomorrow and strong winds.

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Will be interesting to see if winds decouple tonight. Last year, warm advection aloft and unfavorable position of the surface high (looking at NARR reanalysis) prevented much of a drop off during the early morning hours of 1/7 after the core of the cold pushed east. Tonight the surface high will be to the southwest again but stronger and closer to the region, so it might be a better setup for radiational cooling. If the boundary layer doesn't decouple, temperatures are unlikely to get as cold as forecast tonight given warm advection aloft.

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Trust me, I'll never forget last year! But I don't recall the wind biting quite as hard. This morning was literally an instant pain. Makes one feel alive. Lol.

Maybe it was worse in Detroit than Minneapolis (or Chicago?) last Jan 6/7th. I see MSP is -9F WC -31F right now. The wind chills peaked at -50F and there were several hours over -40F here last Jan 6/7. I used to always think once it got to a certain cold it would all feel the same, but I was wrong. That sting last year was unlike anything else Id ever felt. I took my gloves off to take that pic of the arctic sunset after the heavy snow and my hands were exposed for MAYBE 8-9 seconds, and when I got in the house they burned. Wind chills "only" expected at -15F to -25F this go around.

 

Jan 6, 2014 sunset - temp -10Fand dropping, WC -39F at time of pic

3722-800.jpg

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This morning is definitely not as cold as it was a year ago(speaking just for myself, in CR).  Last year I went out to clear the snow drifts from the driveway and after five minutes I was hurting.  I couldn't stay out longer than ten minutes.  This morning I was able to stay outside for 30-40 minutes and finish two driveways/sidewalks with no real problem.  It's still very cold, but I'm pretty sure last year was 5-10 degrees colder with a wind that was 10 mph stronger.

 

Again, just talking about my backyard.

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Cold is kinda meh here, compared to what was forecasted. Temps easily rising every hour. Wind of course makes it a little nasty. Imagine overnight mins are going to come in warmer as well in the LAF. But, still solid cold compared to what we've had thus far this winter.

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