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hurricaneman

2015 ENSO super thread

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This thread is pretty quiet for an El Niño ready to go down in the books as one of the strongest on record.

NY regional thread on El Niño is top notch - it's pretty much the board's main thread on the topic.

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Notice how the westerly wind burst has trended west as we get closer...at first it was pretty strong near 120W, but it's verifying weaker and the more potent areas are showing up around 150-160W...similar to what we saw in early October.

 

This is the image from several days ago that was posted in the NYC forum:

 

323DTSl.jpg

 

 

 

 

The verification around 120W was weaker than the forecast. It has been doing this quite a bit over the life cycle of this Nino. We'll have to see if this one actually makes it closer to 120W stronger than forecast for once...it hasn't thus far.

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Those maps show how much variety there can be in El Nino winters. The only obvious trends in the stronger El Ninos are the enhanced precipitation in the Gulf Coast and Southeast and above normal temperatures in the Northern Plains. Other than that, the rest of the country exhibits more variation than people expect.

72-73 was an interesting exception with a very cold pattern in the West and Northern Rockies. December 1972 had a record breaking arctic outbreak out west. Snowfall was only 2.8" in NYC, but there were several missed opportunities that gave the Southeast heavy snowfall in February 1973. Interesting to see a -PNA pattern prevail in a super El Nino.

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Those maps show how much variety there can be in El Nino winters. The only obvious trends in the stronger El Ninos are the enhanced precipitation in the Gulf Coast and Southeast and above normal temperatures in the Northern Plains. Other than that, the rest of the country exhibits more variation than people expect.

72-73 was an interesting exception with a very cold pattern in the West and Northern Rockies. December 1972 had a record breaking arctic outbreak out west. Snowfall was only 2.8" in NYC, but there were several missed opportunities that gave the Southeast heavy snowfall in February 1973. Interesting to see a -PNA pattern prevail in a super El Nino.

 

 

72-73 is not on the same level as this El Nino or any of the strongest ones in the same class as the current event has reached. This is a big one near the level of a 97-98, 82-83 and if you want to get flashy, 1877-78...From an MEI standpoint, 2015 is clicking on every variable, and for that reason has significantly higher values (latest AugSep MEI +2.5 and probably havent peaked yet) than 72 ever reached (peaking 1.8 in the summer months)...2015-16 is much more likely to look like a canonical strong Nino for the Conus than what happened in 72-73.

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72-73 was very odd in that it had a strong -PDO and an overall chilly Pacific in combination with its pretty strong El Nino, which probably helped to mitigate some of the El Nino forcing. It's going to be pretty hard to ever have anything come close to replicating that again. 

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72-73 was very odd in that it had a strong -PDO and an overall chilly Pacific in combination with its pretty strong El Nino, which probably helped to mitigate some of the El Nino forcing. It's going to be pretty hard to ever have anything come close to replicating that again.

We can only hope.

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Past 7 day trend, ENSO 1.2 down, ENSO 3+4 up.

 

KDOomce.gif

 

The cold pool south of the GOA is weakening... anomalies dropping in W Pacific... +PDO staying strong...

 

H7pQrCr.gif

 

gb3fcZ9.gif

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This is my first post! I'm here because I'm trying to follow everything ENSO related. I'm very interested in watching the ENSO decline in negative territory. I'm dying for Snow, and the local mountains are also dying for snow. Last winter I had 1 inch of snow from November to now, and that 1 inch came last November. The last good event in my area was Jan 2012, and the time before that was 2008.

 

Green Christmases are the norm here, so I'm always looking for snow events in the winter.

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Does anyone happen to have a chart for 97-98 or all strong ninos in fact for a SST anom like they have on CPC showing progression?

Are you looking for a specific static image or animation of the overall evolution? Welcome to AmWx BTW.

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Are you looking for a specific static image or animation of the overall evolution? Welcome to AmWx BTW.

preferably static and thank you been on here a while in school just never made an account. Somethng like this but of any strong and moderate el ninos.

 

ssttlon5_c.gif

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it is  OBVIOUS  that a Modiki el nino  is forming....

 

 

attachicon.gifcdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

 

 

 

attachicon.gifnino12.png

 

 

 

attachicon.gifnino34.png

Classic case of linear thinking here. What is happening now cannot always be projected into the future and assumed to be truth. Nino 1+2 will see warming again from the WWB, as others have said. 

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preferably static and thank you been on here a while in school just never made an account. Somethng like this but of any strong and moderate el ninos.

 

ssttlon5_c.gif

 

Weekly SST anomalies HERE

 

Depth of SST anomalies HERE

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Classic case of linear thinking here. What is happening now cannot always be projected into the future and assumed to be truth. Nino 1+2 will see warming again from the WWB, as others have said.

how much warming?

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Weekly SST anomalies HERE

 

Depth of SST anomalies HERE

 

Im sorry i mean of past events are there charts similar to these where we can see the progression of these anomalies for 97-98, 82-83, 09-10, etc. Just to be able to see how these past events worked, given we can find wind data and match up how things progressed.

 

It would be really interesting to see how these other events unfolded if the data is there. 

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Im sorry i mean of past events are there charts similar to these where we can see the progression of these anomalies for 97-98, 82-83, 09-10, etc. Just to be able to see how these past events worked, given we can find wind data and match up how things progressed.

 

It would be really interesting to see how these other events unfolded if the data is there. 

This site has time longitude plots back to 1979 (bottom section of the page) - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/pentad.shtml

 

Here's one from 1997: zonal wind stress / SST anomalies / 20 deg C isotherm depth anomaly

 

1997.gif

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Has anyone looked at SCRIPPS? It has the SSTs approaching neutral/negative by JJA anad Nina by SON.

Yeah, actually a flip to a strong Niña is not out of the question. Happens in strong Nino events.

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Has anyone looked at SCRIPPS? It has the SSTs approaching neutral/negative by JJA anad Nina by SON.

 

There are a lot of models showing something along these lines. Most strong Ninos have been followed by a Nina the winter afterwards of varying strengths.

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There are a lot of models showing something along these lines. Most strong Ninos have been followed by a Nina the winter afterwards of varying strengths.

With changes in the global circulation this winter and early next spring, the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season could the most interesting since 2010. An emerging -PDO and a late-winter/early-spring -NAO would potentially aid in a more moist basin and a resurgent +AMO. Add an emergent La Niña reducing global AAM and you have the potential for lower shear in the Caribbean thanks to reduced forcing in the Pacific. Almost all of the most active Atlantic seasons, ACE-wise, occurred within two years of El Niño episodes. In five of the eight seasons following strong Niños (since 1950), there was an ACE increase of ≥ 33%.

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