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2015 ENSO super thread


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  • 3 weeks later...

2SdN4fG.gif

 

 

While I think i have missed many over the years, this is the largest area of air below the GOES satellite color range for dry that i have yet seen.  Sometimes I do wish that the threshhold would be adjusted, but that might throw off some of the detail in areas of moist air. 

 

While I am not certain of the connections between this large amount of very dry air to the ENSO, it is occurring concurrently, and is affecting a very large amount of atmosphere over the Pacific, as such it seems good to archive in this thread. 

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2SdN4fG.gif

 

 

While I think i have missed many over the years, this is the largest area of air below the GOES satellite color range for dry that i have yet seen.  Sometimes I do wish that the threshhold would be adjusted, but that might throw off some of the detail in areas of moist air. 

 

While I am not certain of the connections between this large amount of very dry air to the ENSO, it is occurring concurrently, and is affecting a very large amount of atmosphere over the Pacific, as such it seems good to archive in this thread. 

Hadley cells are unusually large AND strong.

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there are some hints that the first half of December may turn out to be seasonally cold. IMO This would be significant because most of the "consensus forecast" show that December 2015, will feature large areas of Above Normal and Much Above Normal temperatures across the entire northern half of the country, from the Rockies to New England.

FWIW... I see December 2015 as the KEY. As we all know the overwhelming amount of data shows Strong El Ninos in r December favors Above and Much Above Normal temperatures over the northern half of the country

So if December 2015, ends up with seasonal cold in the Plains, the Midwest, and the East, it would mean that the "consensus forecast" of a mild/ less snowy winter for the central and eastern US would be in serious trouble.

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All he meant was that there were some signs that December could have been seasonable, which obviously didn't work out.

This doesn't mean we will  not see a rebound, but rather it would have been more of a slam dunk if December had been seasonable.

 

What were the signs?  I never saw them.  I just saw people yammering on about "modoki" and trying to convince themselves that cold was coming.

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What are thoughts going into the prospected decline of this El nino?

 

As of right now nothing really shouting out for a decline or strengthen. There looks to be a possibility of a new KW popping up but yet to see any signs that this will be potent.

 

850 anoms show something might try to happen toward the end of the month right in the heart of the beast, but that is going 10 days out.

 

Subsurface shows weaken of the push cool anom push and the thermocline retracting up toward the surface in eastern 3 and 1+2. Is this due to the KW that recently passed reflecting off the SA coast back west?

 

OLR looks to push east of the dateline but also looks as though it may weaken too.

 

Strongest convergence/divergence looks to be around 150W to 150 E which would make sense to give rise to convection and thus shift OLR west and even possibly ignite a small MJO wave through that region (phase 5-7) yet to be seen though so dont take that verbatim.

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  • 2 weeks later...

The tao/triton subsurface data shows the warm pool between the dateline and 150E starting to grow in response to the off the CHARTS WWB TAKING PLACE THAT IS ONLY FORECASTED TO EXPAND IN SIZE LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE WISE THE next 10 days.

With solar insolation starting to rise again at the equator heat will start to pool again in response to these wwbs.

Can anyone link me to historic. Zonal wind anomalies so they can be compared to other big events??

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Can anyone link me to historic. Zonal wind anomalies so they can be compared to other big events??

Hit this link and scroll down to the bottom...and choose Surface Zonal Wind Stress Anomaly:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/pentad.shtml

 

And you can create your own zonal wind hovmoller plots here:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/time_plot/

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