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Jerusalem, Israel Weather: Winter 2014-2015 edition


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Hey guys,

 

Every year since I have moved to Jerusalem from NYC I have started discussions on its winter weather, especially when a possible snow storm seemed imminent. I've been here for 3 years and ironically, each winter there was a snow event, with each one progressively greater than the one before it. Snow in Jerusalem is simply majestic, and I have followed up these threads with lots of pics and videos during the events.

 

Well here we are at my 4th year here and the models for the past couple of days have been really keen on showing solutions for snow in Jerusalem and higher elevation spots throughout Israel. A massive ridge building over western Europe the next couple of days will allow for an intense trough to form east over the western parts of Russia that will surge arctic air down south right into Israel. A storm system approaching Israel this weekend, likely bringing rain (and possible mix of snow), may then intensify right around the onset of this cold air Tues-Wed, bringing a significant amount of snow into Jerusalem.

 

Let's start with the 0Z GFS data plots for Jerusalem: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=lljr

 

Keep in mind that typically for snow, Jerusalem at it's altitude needs to have the 500mb temps at -25C or below. 850mb temps can be around 1-2C to produce snow as long as the 500mb temps are in good shape.

 

So as you can see in those plots above, between hours 144-168 are pretty ripe for snow. At times, 500 mb temps get down to -32C, which is really rare for Jerusalem any time of the winter. Having the 850mb get as low as -3C is certainly helpful too. The main bulk of precipitation is currently forecasted to start at the beginning of this time period and last for 12 hours before tapering off. 

 

Here is the 0Z GFS ensembles: gens-21-1-138.png

 

They are pretty consistent showing the cold air trough and definitely cold enough air at the 500mb level.

 

Let's look at the latest 0z Euro:

Recm1681.gif

This is definitely an incredible solution for snow, as that trough is the most intense/cold I have seen it forecasted yet. 

 

Here are 0z Euro ensembles:

Reem1681.gif

 

The cold air here isn't as extreme, however they have been trending colder over the past few days.

 

Being 144-168 hours out, a lot can obviously change. However, there are a couple of reasons to seriously look at this threat: 1) the models have been consistently showing a snow signal like this for the past 2-3 days and 2) The cold air trough orientation brings in the air directly from Russia north to south and keeps it over land, preventing it from moderating warmer had it been situated in a more west to east fashion going over the Mediterranean. 3) To my eye, the models are trending only colder and wetter.

 

Another point to mention is this rain event forecasted for Saturday-Sunday. The Euro has been pretty insistent on keeping the temps too warm for snow. However, the GFS continues to show 500 mb temps at the -25 to -26 C range with 850 temps around 2-3 C. This could potentially allow for a rain/snow mix over the weekend. Since the Euro isn't showing that though, I am doubtful we'll end up seeing that.

 

If you want to be part of this discussion, I'd really appreciate any and all input on what I am posting. I especially would appreciate knowing the data plots of the Euro if you have access to that being that my access to Euro data is limited.

 

And if this pans out, I look forward to sharing the experience with all of you, pics, videos and all. 

 

Thanks and Happy New Year! :)  :snowwindow:  :snowman:

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I just noticed in my first post above the Euro maps change as the website updates the latest model run. The website that I view the Euro is: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html

 

From now on I'll save the images and then upload them here. Here is latest 12z Euro:

 

post-1602-0-44127000-1420156784_thumb.gi

 

The trough is still looking excellent for cold air and snow. I was with jconsor tonight, a meteorologist who lives in Jerusalem and a member here too, and was able to see the better detailed Euro maps with him. One of the interesting trends to note is that the low is trending more cut off and thus keeping the precip around for longer since it is moving out more slowly. The 850's are also staying quite cold after the storm, which would allow for the snow to actually stick around instead of melt quickly like what occurs after most Jerusalem snows. 

 

All in all, models are still showing good trends and good snow. More updates to come as we get closer.

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I just noticed in my first post above the Euro maps change as the website updates the latest model run. The website that I view the Euro is: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html

 

From now on I'll save the images and then upload them here. Here is latest 12z Euro:

 

attachicon.gifRecm1441.gif

 

The trough is still looking excellent for cold air and snow. I was with jconsor tonight, a meteorologist who lives in Jerusalem and a member here too, and was able to see the better detailed Euro maps with him. One of the interesting trends to note is that the low is trending more cut off and thus keeping the precip around for longer since it is moving out more slowly. The 850's are also staying quite cold after the storm, which would allow for the snow to actually stick around instead of melt quickly like what occurs after most Jerusalem snows. 

 

All in all, models are still showing good trends and good snow. More updates to come as we get closer.

The AO+ is usually a good thing for snowfall in Jerusalem. Hopefully, things will work out and Jerusalem will be covered in snow.

 

I recall JConsor's posts here at AmWx and also in the past at EasternWx. He's a very good meteorologist and I always look forward to seeing his posts when he has time to post here

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So far so good: pretty incredible to see this continue to be forecasted as another serious snow for Jerusalem - third year in a row, which is really unusual. It all is looking to happen this coming Wednesday, heaviest Wednesday night and ending Thursday morning.

 

Check out the latest Euro 850 temps and 500mb anomaly maps: 

post-1602-0-15594200-1420325217_thumb.pn

post-1602-0-63303000-1420325190_thumb.pn

 

GFS precip amounts are about .50 inches when the cold truly arrives so half a foot of snow. Not too shabby at all. Also the latest 18z GFS is showing some redevelopment of the storm too adding additional snow possibly Thursday night into Friday. That requires further monitoring. Either way, I'll  hope to keep you all up to date and better yet, provide you with pics and videos throughout the event.

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