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1/5-1/6 clipper system


Thundersnow12

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Because it's the main model run in Canada, just like the GFS for the US and the ECMWF for Europe. They just don't stop running a significant model because it doesn't perform well all of the time.

+1, its sniffed out a few rabbits. I find the reg PCPN TYPE maps to be very good.

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Because it's the main model run in Canada, just like the GFS for the US and the ECMWF for Europe. They just don't stop running a significant model because it doesn't perform well all of the time.

The real problem arises when said model doesn't receive updates despite its dismal performance.

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This is really an impressive system showing up in the models and now we have good agreement between both the GFS and PGFS. The low level circulation is really able to intensify as it crosses the Rockies and comes over the baroclinic zone and leads to a response in the low level wind fields which causes serious amounts of WAA juxtaposed with good frontogenesis leading to enhanced chances of banding along the boundary. Add to all the the 300-400mb DGZ being progged along the best snow swath and you have ingredients for an overperfomer. Yes it's fast moving but we've seen this setup before. 

 

As we see in the GFS snowfall maps, the best amounts are across northern/northeast IA due to the fact that the orientation of the low level winds (850mb-925mb) are more perpendicular to the baroclinic zone allowing for better WAA up and over the front to generate/maintain precip. In time those winds begin to veer as the system moves east so you see a slight reduction in fcst amounts but we shouldn't see a rapid drop off. 

 

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It had a MAJOR update as recently as 2013...

 

https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/posts/332005146900132

Yeah, my point was more directed towards models that do excessively poor in verification and still don't receive upgrades.

I was going to reference the JMA here, but it received an upgrade, if I'm reading this right, in March of last year: http://www.wcrp-climate.org/WGNE/BlueBook/2014/individual-articles/06_Yonehara_Hitoshi_WGNE_BB2014_GSMupgrade_yonehara.pdf

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Yeah, my point was more directed towards models that do excessively poor in verification and still don't receive upgrades.

 

Those upgrades aren't cheap and governments aren't flushed with cash these days...

 

It serves its purpose well enough for Canadians to not do expensive upgrades every time it fails with a storm...

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Yeah, my point was more directed towards models that do excessively poor in verification and still don't receive upgrades.

I was going to reference the JMA here, but it received an upgrade, if I'm reading this right, in March of last year: http://www.wcrp-climate.org/WGNE/BlueBook/2014/individual-articles/06_Yonehara_Hitoshi_WGNE_BB2014_GSMupgrade_yonehara.pdf

 

 

GGEM isn't the best but excessively poor may be stretching it.  We're not talking Nogaps.

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Those upgrades aren't cheap and governments aren't flushed with cash these days...

 

It serves its purpose well enough for Canadians to not do expensive upgrades every time it fails with a storm...

 

 

GGEM isn't the best but excessively poor may be stretching it.  We're not talking Nogaps.

Wasn't trying to zero in on the GGEM, its upgrade has seemingly allowed it to have relatively high quality forecasts in comparison to other global models. My point was on how some guidance can be truly abysmal for months & even years on end with little to no indication of an upgrade... But yes, talk is cheap, upgrades are not.
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The GEMs ensembles are all over the place with the clipper (talking the last few runs, obviously the 00z arent out yet). Some had a strong clipper way north, some way south, some weak, some had no clipper at all.

 

The GFS and its ensembles consistency has amazed me. Honestly, I know we have a slop storm to deal with this weekend, but this clipper really has my attention.

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As an aside, incredible cold being modeled behind the clipper. Mid -20s at 850 and a mid 1050s high dropping south from the Plains on the 00z GFS by Weds AM. That would approach the severity of the January 6-7 2014 extreme cold.

Sent from my SM-G900V

 

I saw this and that's more of a talking point than the snow.  Sure, we haven't had much. if any, snow, but the sudden strong blast of cold will be sticking around for some time, and is of decent size.

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Looks like but not sure that the 0z Euro has the clipper north of the GFS/PGFS. Can't even get agreement on a clipper.

Euro = North

GFS/PGFS = in between

GGEM = South

euro appears similar to the gfs ensemble mean. A bit weaker, but the strongest euro run yet for the clipper. The gfs ensembles have been remarkably consistent with this one.
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Certainly seeming like a "win win" scenario for someone in the subforum....(which is far from the norm this winter)....either things are little drier with QPF but better ratios....OR .... ratios maybe a touch lower, but better QPF....

 

finally a nice size hole on the needle to thread (which I guess is typical for clippers....exception being location of swath)...but someone should do well here all things considered

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