burrel2 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Looks like the Euro is starting to come around to the idea shown by the Dgex yesterday morning... If this verifies as a big precip maker, are we finally going to give a little credit to the Dgex for the being the first model to show it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Looks like the Euro is starting to come around to the idea shown by the Dgex yesterday morning... If this verifies as a big precip maker, are we finally going to give a little credit to the Dgex for the being the first model to show it?Didn't the GFS show it first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Didn't the GFS show it first? Maybe so... I'll rephrase like this... "Maybe the dgex was the first one to pick it back up after all other models had more or less lost it." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Ok, so now we have a legit threat of a storm. Is there realistically any way for this to trend colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Haha what a NW trend. From Cuba to I-95 in one run. Still, too warm! Don't you worry, we will get our 1.5" QPF of 35F rain while SuperJames/Franklin get there 6-10" and somehow PGV backends 3-5". Hope is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Don't you worry, we will get our 1.5" QPF of 35F rain while SuperJames/Franklin get there 6-10" and somehow PGV backends 3-5". Hope is a good thing. WSWs already up for DC for 18-24".... (just kidding) I'll probably work in 2-4" on the front-end before going over to 33/rain like I did in Snowmageddon while the Mid-Atlantic gets another HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Ok, so now we have a legit threat of a storm. Is there realistically any way for this to trend colder? Heck yes...we can get 33F rain in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Heck yes...we can get 33F rain in a heartbeat. No! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Ok, so now we have a legit threat of a storm. Is there realistically any way for this to trend colder? It's more than 96hrs form starting, so I'd say, yes a lot of things can change between now and then. No reason to give up yet. Just look how much warmer it has trended in the last 24 hours. Who's to say it doesn't windshield wipe the other way in the next 24 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 No! If we get that deep of a coastal in late Jan with that track someone to the NW of it is getting rain.......oh I mean snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I85Greenville Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Maybe it's just me, but I wouldn't want to be in the "jackpot"/for things to look "perfect" right now (as in, 4-5 days out). Of course that doesn't mean it trends colder (seems like there's not many ways it could), but stranger things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 this is probably the weenie in me talking, but i would be scared to death if the models showed an ideal track this far out. would much rather have a decent overall look and see it trend better the closer we got to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Ok, so now we have a legit threat of a storm. Is there realistically any way for this to trend colder?it will trend towards the navgem. I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 My Mom leaves for Ohio early Saturday am(12am) via 77n to 70w to 75s........yay for such a fun trip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Can't win if you don't play, odds don't always work out, just ask Vegas! You also can't lose if you don't play. The odds of winning either the Powerball or Mega Millions jackpot are greater than 175 million to 1. If you believe in the odds of winning the lottery, then you should never fly or drive. That because you are more likely to be killed in a plane crash, where the odds are 25 million to 1, and far more likely to die in a car crash, where the odds are only 5,000 to 1. Similarly you should start sleeping on the floor and taking showers. That's because the odds of being killed by falling out of bed are 2 million to 1, while the odds of drowning while taking a bath are 840,000 to 1. However, don't think you can improve your odds by avoiding cleanliness altogether. The odds of dying from a flesh-eating bacteria are only 1 million to 1. Maybe you'll have better luck outside. Not! The odds of being killed by lightning are 2 million to 1, while being killed by a dog are 700,000 to 1. Bring your anti-venom kit, because you are even more likely to die from a snakebite or bee sting, where the odds are 100,000 to 1. If these statistics have you feeling a little paranoid, cheer up! There are many happy occurrences that are more likely than winning the lottery. For example, the odds of becoming a movie star are only 1.5 million to 1, while the odds of getting a royal flush in a first hand of poker are just 649,740 to 1. Even better (guys!), the odds of dating a supermodel are a measly 88,000 to 1. To put it all into perspective, consider this. Scientists have calculated that there is just a 300 to 1 chance that asteroid 2004 MN4 will strike the Earth on April 13, 2029. The asteroid is about a quarter mile (400 meters) wide. This is larger than the asteroid that carved out Meteor Crater in Arizona, and the one that flattened thousands of square miles of forest in Siberia in 1908. http://useconomy.about.com/od/themarkets/a/What-Are-The-Odds-Of-Winning-The-Lottery.htm To put it into our weather vernacular, the odds of Waycross getting a foot of snow are better than your chances of winning the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 You also can't lose if you don't play. The odds of winning either the Powerball or Mega Millions jackpot are greater than 175 million to 1. http://useconomy.about.com/od/themarkets/a/What-Are-The-Odds-Of-Winning-The-Lottery.htm To put it into our weather vernacular, the odds of Waycross getting a foot of snow are better than your chances of winning the jackpot. I know the odds, I still play when the jackpots get big just for fun. People who play every week probably have a problem. But just playing and having those "what if" conversations are fun, at least for me. $1-3 dollars every 6 months or so for entertainment value doesn't break the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 Ok, so now we have a legit threat of a storm. Is there realistically any way for this to trend colder?You and Brick put a fan on your back porch and turn them on high. This will help with dynamic cooling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I know the odds, I still play when the jackpots get big just for fun. People who play every week probably have a problem. But just playing and having those "what if" conversations are fun, at least for me. $1-3 dollars every 6 months or so for entertainment value doesn't break the bank. You don't get to be a pharmacist without being able to do the math, so I knew you would be aware of the odds. But, not everyone is. I spend some time on the lottery in my quantitative literacy course each semester. It's amazing how much the average person has not really thought about the money they throw at the lottery each year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 You also can't lose if you don't play. The odds of winning either the Powerball or Mega Millions jackpot are greater than 175 million to 1. So just a little bit better odds than an inch of snow in Waycross. Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Let's say you can spend $100 for a lottery ticket that will net you an infinite sum of money should you win. The expected value of such a bet is an infinite sum of dollars even though the probability of winning is infinitesimally small. Thus, the expected value of playing is greater than not playing - E(not playing) = $100. However, a normal risk averse person would not take this bet because our utility functions of wealth tend to look something like the below (square root function). It's also why we buy insurance, and do other things to avoid risk. I think that's called the St. Petersburg Paradox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Ok, so now we have a legit threat of a storm. Is there realistically any way for this to trend colder? There are signs to watch for. 1. Sudden drops in water temp in the NA 2. Huge hail in Japan. 3. A pool table dropping out of the sky 4. Multiple twisters destroying LA 5. A huge storm surge moving down the east coast Hmm.. Now that I think about it, that might have been a movie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 IMO this storm (if it comes to fruition) will either be for KCLT and points west, or an I-40 special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 This all goes back to the Nov 1 snow. I pretty much knew then this winter would be bad. 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 are good examples of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I'd love to have some snow at my house but I'll gladly take some powder skiing as a consolation prize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 "The Big One of 2014-2015" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 This all goes back to the Nov 1 snow. I pretty much knew then this winter would be bad. 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 are good examples of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Ok, so now we have a legit threat of a storm. Is there realistically any way for this to trend colder? Yeah it needs to wind the heck up and bomb pretty hard, like sub 995 or so off of VA/NC border hard, no slider or anything like that, it will be too warm...also an super close coastal hugger could prduce if it bombed just off of NVA, we would get some heavy backend snow. FWIW a handful of members from the 12z GFS with big dogs...this is my favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Yeah it needs to wind the heck up and bomb pretty hard, like sub 995 or so off of VA/NC border hard, no slider or anything like that, it will be too warm...also an super close coastal hugger could prduce if it bombed just off of NVA, we would get some heavy backend snow. FWIW a handful of members from the 12z GFS with big dogs...this is my favorite. Don't show that... there could be small children around! #weatherporn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Yeah it needs to wind the heck up and bomb pretty hard, like sub 995 or so off of VA/NC border hard, no slider or anything like that, it will be too warm...also an super close coastal hugger could prduce if it bombed just off of NVA, we would get some heavy backend snow. FWIW a handful of members from the 12z GFS with big dogs...this is my favorite. Yeah that looks nice. Good to know what to root for. I'd like to see the big L near the Lakes swap out for a big H, but that ain't gonna happen. We'll see, I guess. Burns, I think I saw that movie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Think I am giving up. Ready for summer evenings here at my beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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