Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 "Leaning towards" some solution at 6 days out is not the same as issuing an "iron clad" forecast. You've been on the boards long enough to stop pretending you don't know the difference. You want a deterministic forecast at 6 days out, but I'm sorry, you aren't getting one from most people at this range. You get probabilistic forecasts with terms like "leaning towards" or "possible" and usually a lot of caveats. Thank you! ...lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 "Leaning towards" some solution at 6 days out is not the same as issuing an "iron clad" forecast. You've been on the boards long enough to stop pretending you don't know the difference. You want a deterministic forecast at 6 days out, but I'm sorry, you aren't getting one from most people at this range. You get probabilistic forecasts with terms like "leaning towards" or "possible" and usually a lot of caveats. I don't need or want anything from anyone. His sentiments on this from day 1 have been that he perceives this as a non event. There's nothing wrong with expressing that if that's his viewpoint. Certainly is an option Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Much better look to the system on the 4th on the 12z Euro Ensembles, More of a miller b'ish over running look with a lot of spread it seems back NW, More like the 12z GGEM......fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 For those of us whose understanding is less than perfect does the GFS Para show a light snow event on the 6/7? I am NOT asking for a deterministic forecast. I'm just wondering if I am reading it correctly. Also, what kind of system is it in meteorological terms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I don't need or want anything from anyone. His sentiments on this from day 1 have been that he perceives this as a non event. There's nothing wrong with expressing that if that's his viewpoint. Certainly is an option You've grown very, very cranky and confrontational over the past year or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2014 Author Share Posted December 29, 2014 Much better look to the system on the 4th on the 12z Euro Ensembles, More of a miller b'ish over running look with a lot of spread it seems back NW, More like the 12z GGEM......fwiw Yeah the Euro ensembles are pretty amped as a composite mean...but the spread is enormous. The spread tells us that the confidence on this particular system is really low right now...even for a D5-6 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2014 Author Share Posted December 29, 2014 If folks are wondering for kicks, the composite mean on the EC ensembles probably look best for CNE (prob like from pike to White Mts as a general zone) when taking into account track and mean QPF. But this doesn't mean a whole lot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I don't need or want anything from anyone. His sentiments on this from day 1 have been that he perceives this as a non event. There's nothing wrong with expressing that if that's his viewpoint. Certainly is an option Your problem is that you don't know how to distinguish between objective reasoning instances. I don't have a "sentiment" one way or the other. I DO, however, possess the ability to analyse how either result is or is less plausible. I discussed why the non-event scenario could pan out -- that's not my personal position on matters. dude, shut up would you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Yeah the Euro ensembles are pretty amped as a composite mean...but the spread is enormous. The spread tells us that the confidence on this particular system is really low right now...even for a D5-6 storm. I don't have axis to the individual members but it has a big kink in the isobars to the NW so i figure there has to be a few members leaning that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Your problem is that you don't know how to distinguish between objective reasoning instances. I don't have a "sentiment" one way or the other. I DO, however, possess the ability to analyse how either result is or is less plausible. I discussed why the non-event scenario could pan out -- that's not my personal position on matters. dude, shut up would you Jonathon..your not a psychiatrist or a sociologist. You're a meterorolgist. Stick to that as veering away from that tends to get you in trouble. At any rate.. your idea/forecast is as good as any right now..and again certainly a possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Jonathon..your not a psychiatrist or a sociologist. You're a meterorolgist. Stick to that as veering away from that tends to get you in trouble. At any rate.. your idea/forecast is as good as any right now..and again certainly a possibility That's the point -- I have not put put a forecast. And w t f is that psycho-babble stuff coming from. What conversation are you having?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Euro is partly sunny north of pike with flurries sourh. That's the more likely outcome with the setup. Let hope the north trend commences Thankfully, I believe we'll see a solid compromise and gets nice event for at least CNE and SNE What changed in those 90 minutes to make you go from the most likely solution is suppressed with flurries along the south, to a nice event for at least CNE and SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Just reviewing the 12z EURO EPS, and yeah, lots of spread NW. Everywhere from a 987mb low over northern Michigan, to a weak wave going east off the mid-Atlantic coast. The mean looks to take a primary into western PA/NY State with a redevelopment near the New England coast into the Gulf of Maine. The control run (the OP at lower resolution) puts a 990mb low over Montreal. Looks like literally everything and anything is possible. The ensemble mean is a weenie run for New England though...looks quite snowy out to day 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Just reviewing the 12z EURO EPS, and yeah, lots of spread NW. Everywhere from a 987mb low over northern Michigan, to a weak wave going east off the mid-Atlantic coast. The mean looks to take a primary into western PA/NY State with a redevelopment near the New England coast into the Gulf of Maine. The control run (the OP at lower resolution) puts a 990mb low over Montreal. Looks like literally everything and anything is possible. The ensemble mean is a weenie run for New England though...looks quite snowy out to day 15. Steady as she goes, hopefully. Again, myself and others on here weren't as woeful like some of the posters were with this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2014 Author Share Posted December 29, 2014 Ensemble mean has the late bloomer threat Jan 7-8 that the OP run had...obviously not as wound up on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 wild reading in here this afternoon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Aleutian low makes a comeback by D15 on the EPS mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Aleutian low makes a comeback by D15 on the EPS mean. That's excellent news actually. Exactly where we want it and rather niño esque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Aleutian low makes a comeback by D15 on the EPS mean. 15 days out...I wouldn't buy into anything that far out if you paid me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Pretty crazy cold on the euro ensemble around d8. For an ensemble mean to average -16C at 850 is youwzas cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 15 days out...I wouldn't buy into anything that far out if you paid me. Wouldn't we want an Aleutian low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 What changed in those 90 minutes to make you go from the most likely solution is suppressed with flurries along the south, to a nice event for at least CNE and SNE? I thought wishcasting wasn't allowed in here?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Wouldn't we want an Aleutian low? My point is that it's 15 days out...whether we do or not wasn't my point. If we do, then I wouldn't be betting on it more than two weeks away was all I meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Ensemble mean has the late bloomer threat Jan 7-8 that the OP run had...obviously not as wound up on the mean.That is the first bonafide threat imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Pretty crazy cold on the euro ensemble around d8. For an ensemble mean to average -16C at 850 is youwzas cold. Precipitation around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 That is the first bonafide threat imho Ray, why you thinking that? Cuz the cold is firmly entrenched? Just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 My point is that it's 15 days out...whether we do or not wasn't my point. If we do, then I wouldn't be betting on it more than two weeks away was all I meant. Yes. Whatever the solution at 15 days I'd want some consistency run to run. But often it's a signal that gets stronger as it moves closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Yes me too Jerry. I think Dan 123 was saying it because he thought it was a bad thing for the continuation of a wintry pattern...although I could be mistaken by assuming that as well??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Precipitation around? Let's put it this way, the euro ens was a pretty snowy run today. Multiple threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 That's excellent news actually. Exactly where we want it and rather niño esque. Yes. It ultimately tries to turn the PNA + if it behaves properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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