Model discussion thread

[ORH_wxman]

I'm starting this to have a place to discuss OP solutions of models that may not necessarily be relevant to pattern change threads...such as a longshot storm threat 6-7 days out.

 

Or maybe you just want to post what the JMA shows or the 174 hour GGEM shows.

 

Or you want to post play by play of each frame of the Euro as it comes out without cluttering the pattern thread....this is the place to do it.

 

 

 

I'll start off by saying the longshot d6 threat on the GFS today looks more SWFE-ish....maybe snow to ice in the interior (and eventually rain)....but this thing will keep changing probably untilk we get within 3-4 days.

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Does long shot mean slim chance of a storm? Seems like the storm is coming, just what form it takes tbd.

[Damage In Tolland]

Para GFS looks much different . Looks like it's a snow event and develops a secondary near Delmarva as the stout 1040 high holds the cold

[ORH_wxman]

Does long shot mean slim chance of a storm? Seems like the storm is coming, just what form it takes tbd.

 

Well the storm itself isn't a longshot, but having a solid snow event probably is at this point...I should have clarified.

 

I do think the chances for at least some wintry precip is fairly decent...but that could mean 1" of snow followed by ice then rain too. Then, there's also the scenario where the storm misses us if it gets put through the meatgrinder too much. Last night's Euro showed this scenario.

[dryslot]

12z GFS sends slp NE up the St Lawrence, 12z Para takes it NE off HSE

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Pretty comical how Para and it's brother are world apart on the 4th. I mean, what's the difference between these two models that provides such different solutions?

[Damage In Tolland]

PGFS is a decent event for SNE..not much north..closer to Euro idea

[weathafella]

Para follows it up ala yesterday afternoons euro.

[Baroclinic Zone]

PGFS is a decent event for SNE..not much north..closer to Euro idea

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Para is nice, especially pike south. Hangs back some snows too

[weathafella]

The trend over the past 2 days is colder with this system admittedly still too far out in time to know details. Even the warmest solution, the old about to be retired gfs is much more swfe like today. The mos numbers reflect that cooling trend in this system over the past few runs. I wonder how far it will trend south before correcting back?

[Damage In Tolland]

The trend over the past 2 days is colder with this system admittedly still too far out in time to know details. Even the warmest solution, the old about to be retired gfs is much more swfe like today. The mos numbers reflect that cooling trend in this system over the past few runs. I wonder how far it will trend south before correcting back?

Yeah the warm cutter idea is gone. THe worry moving forward is to not have this be a congrats Philly

[powderfreak]

Great idea for a thread...need some place to discuss the models.

[dryslot]

12z GGEM would be a major hit in CNE/NNE, And another hit 2 days later..........lol

[Typhoon Tip]

The problem in the deterministic solutions is the degree of phasing ... This latest run of the operational GFS is syncing up with the N-stream out around the ~ longitude of the MV, and then you have a very fast, progressive, but still potent union of streams that goes west of NE longitude.

 

The antecedent air mass is very cold, and there is a secondary sort of headache in all this ... and it has to do with the handling of surface pressure in SE Canda/NNE, while all the former is taking place.  Subtle variations in time and space with the handling of polar high (depending on model, and/or model run cycle) make a very large different in sensible impact.  If a west solution (more phase) verifies, while a 00z GGEM-type stronger polar high does as well ... we wind up with an icy mess.  

 

Going back to the flatter GFS solutions ... such as 06z this morning ... there is less phasing, and so anything that transpires at all would come down to the correct decay rate of the opening SW U.S. upper low, as it enters the shearing field in the confluence of the Ohio Valley.  Without an assist by phasing, this system will be damping out as it comes ... possibly disappearing altogether as a correction ... but perhaps not before it pulls a pwat atmosphere up over the dome of nascent arctic air.  Even in the 06 solution, however, the GFS manages to drill the 850mb 0C isotherm to almost the NH/MA border... (seems as though NCEP must be parameterizing their models with anti-snow variables just to f with the heads of addicts up this way - ha!)

 

Frankly, it is too early to discount a more or less phased solution, either way.  These other flatter appealed runs ... such as the 0z GGEM and Euro, they too demonstrate less phasing, which is how they would also arrive a weaker ... fast moving system that even goes south of SNE in some versions.  

 

Although, I will say, it does get harder to envision a west moving system when the majesty of the N-steam appears to be formulating its self into more of a large, deep SPV gyre as opposed to a languid open trough.  This is new headache to the party.  This variation on the flow theme becomes a cyclonic block... Systems don't move through those; they get caught up and eventually absorbed by them given time; but that requires moving in near parallel to the flow...  

 

Anyway, a lot of complexities involved and models are only as good as their physical processing/data that goes into those processes.  The initialization of the grids and all that jazz... Timing influences both subtle and gross is a truly harrowing undertaking,, and confidences will probably not be very satisfied until this thing is squarely entering the shorter ranges.  More so than usual...  

[WinterWolf]

Yeah the warm cutter idea is gone. THe worry moving forward is to not have this be a congrats Philly

Again, as many in the "know" have said Kevin, this can still Cut due to no Atlantic Blocking.  The 0z GFS was a cutter/up the St. Lawrence valley.  We will still have the cold air in place it seems, but we are far from a lock on this not being a cutter.  I sure hope it's not a cutter, but we here in SNE are far from a pure wintry event with this system as it stands at the moment.

[ORH_wxman]

12z GGEM would be a major hit in CNE/NNE, And another hit 2 days later..........lol

 

Yeah more classic SWFE look on the GEM. That would prob be pretty decent icing in the interior of SNE too after intiial snow thump.

 

 

A whole bunch of different solutions are viable in this pattern...it is very closely dependent on how the southwest energy is ejected out.

[mreaves]

12z GGEM would be a major hit in CNE/NNE, And another hit 2 days later..........lol

Obviously, this is the only correct solution.  I will be shocked and saddened if it does not happen this way.  

[dryslot]

Yeah more classic SWFE look on the GEM. That would prob be pretty decent icing in the interior of SNE too after intiial snow thump.

 

 

A whole bunch of different solutions are viable in this pattern...it is very closely dependent on how the southwest energy is ejected out.

 

Yes, Front end snow to ice over some of the interior in SNE with a huge snow thump north of there

[powderfreak]

Loving that the Op GFS and PARA are still showing a nice mesoscale event for NNE like Friday into Saturday night... looks to be associated with an arctic front and lake moisture.

 

Ginxy's WINDEX plus a day of orographic/lake effect assisted snow. 

 

[dryslot]

Obviously, this is the only correct solution.  I will be shocked and saddened if it does not happen this way.  

 

To bad it is not the only solution at hand, There are several,  Some good ones some messy ones some bad ones

[dryslot]

Loving that the Op GFS and PARA are still showing a nice mesoscale event for NNE like Friday into Saturday night... looks to be associated with an arctic front and lake moisture.

 

Ginxy's WINDEX plus a day of orographic/lake effect assisted snow. 

 

gfs_tprecip_neng_25.png

 

Yup, Nice down slope dandy for folks SE of the mtns..............

[weathafella]

Swfe event vibe on American and Canadian guidance (notwithstanding the para flatter ots with moisture thrown back). I think the idea of a messy swfe event should be the go to thought until we get closer.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Even if the primary low does cut west, it does seem like there is a decent probability of a miller b-type storm with a secondary and initial low-level cold air which could create a sloppy icy scenario for some if in fact that verifies. Still a ton of time though so confidence is low.

[powderfreak]

12z GGEM would be a major hit in CNE/NNE, And another hit 2 days later..........lol

 

I could do that, no meso-scale event on that run, but still high advisory low-end warning snows, so that would work too

 

I think we'll do some snow in the next week.

[dryslot]

The SWFE has been on the table for a bit, Even when the models were showing cutter after cutter, And i'm not saying that we may not end up with a cutter if we have an ill timed phase but with a lot of cold around you have to like the chances of some frozen one way shape or form

[CoastalWx]

The SWFE has been on the table for a bit, Even when the models were showing cutter after cutter, And i'm not saying that we may not end up with a cutter if we have an ill timed phase but with a lot of cold around you have to like the chances of some frozen one way shape or form

That's been my guess as well.

[powderfreak]

The SWFE has been on the table for a bit, Even when the models were showing cutter after cutter, And i'm not saying that we may not end up with a cutter if we have an ill timed phase but with a lot of cold around you have to like the chances of some frozen one way shape or form

Now we play the game of...it's been trending a little colder, so once it starts it'll keep trending colder and suppressed? Or, is this that mid-range shift where it does something for a couple days, then at day 3, it reverses and goes back the other way?

Like ORH said, going to go crazy trying to over analyze it. We just need some weather to watch.

[dryslot]

That's been my guess as well.

 

Yeah, I mean we could still end up on the wrong side if this comes out of the SW as a loaded gun, But models seem to be moving away from the all out cutters of a few days back so time will tell going forward, Weds or thurs we should have a better idea hopefully as to where this one may go

[mreaves]

To bad it is not the only solution at hand, There are several,  Some good ones some messy ones some bad ones

Yeah, it seems as if there are as many solutions as there are models.