leesun Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Anyone that thinks the Euro is going to be right on the weekend or early next week is going to be disappointed again. With no blocking everything is shunted OTS. Euro couldn't even get the clipper right 48 hours out. I feel much more confident in a storm when Kevin is negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 go back and take a look at Kevin's posts before the 2013 blizzard. he was ripping the potential to shreds. I am NOT in any way comparing this to that threat but just sayin!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Next week pretty much defines amplified. Deep ridging out west, deep troughing in the east. Like Will said, nuances in the flow will determine where any storm tracks and that simply cannot be seen this far out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The one on the 27th just has a much better look to it with the changes that are modeled going forward, Not saying that the weekend one can't workout, But its going to need more things to go right to get it closer to the coast, That kicker is a bit concerning unless timing is wrong and it either is slower, Out of the way, Or we have some type of phase, I mean you look at the strength of the weekend low and see that it brushes the coast, If its a shade weaker it will be further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I try, instead, to discourage such questions by pointing out their ineptitude regardless of experience. It's impossible to ask if there's a "60% chance" of something happening when you don't establish what exactly needs to happen for it to count. Technically, several storms have already hit "the area." The last one just brought rain to most. You can leave a teat exposed to the dry chill that the noobs should nurse from it and nourish their mediocrity. Here, in the winter of our discontent, I shall coddle nothing. As is tradition! Long live the 18z NAM. You know all i asked was a question, your right i am new to this site, i have no experience what so ever, i ask the question based from those that know, things maybe changing with a "ridge" etc, bringing more storms maybe within reach so to speak, as we get closer to the end of january, i was just "wondering" are the chances now greater then december? may be my question shouldnt have been placed on this thread, my bad, im sure you never posted any questions like this when you first joined this site..forgive me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 That's fine if people are disappointed or gunshy. Just post the emotional-based reasoning and similar posts in the banter thread and not in other threads. It gets old reading "this winter sucks so the next storm will be a fail of course" on a science forum. Apparently everyone forgets what the winter of 2012-2013 was like before we got the Blizzard in February.......11'-12' sucked and it looked like 12-13' was going to equally suck until the Blizzard hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The one on the 27th just has a much better look to it with the changes that are modeled going forward, Not saying that the weekend one can't workout, But its going to need more things to go right to get it closer to the coast, That kicker is a bit concerning unless timing is wrong and it either is slower, Out of the way, Or we have some type of phase, I mean you look at the strength of the weekend low and see that it brushes the coast, If its a shade weaker it will be further east. just be careful what you wish for on this weekend,too much phasing without blocking is not a good thing. it's all about the timing and exact placement of the disturbances and possible phasing as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 You know all i asked was a question, your right i am new to this site, i have no experience what so ever, i ask the question based from those that know, things maybe changing with a "ridge" etc, bringing more storms maybe within reach so to speak, as we get closer to the end of january, i was just "wondering" are the chances now greater then december? may be my question shouldnt have been placed on this thread, my bad, im sure you never posted any questions like this when you first joined this site..forgive me. Dude. Don't hesitate to ask questions. You will learn that there are some posters that you should just completely ignore when it comes to their posts and responses. I wouldn't hesitate to use the 'block post' option we have. But as to your question. Yes our chances are better that we see some impacts before the end of January. The pattern in December just flat out stunk. This one is just flat out better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Apparently everyone forgets what the winter of 2012-2013 was like before we got the Blizzard in February.......11'-12' sucked and it looked like 12-13' was going to equally suck until the Blizzard hit. this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 just be careful what you wish for on this weekend,too much phasing without blocking is not a good thing. it's all about the timing and exact placement of the disturbances and possible phasing as well. And so far this year, Timing has sucked on these "Thread the Needle events" Not wishing, Just stating that without some blocking or that kicker, You would probably be looking at a cutter with the low strength progged on the models, The problem is the kicker is also giving this the boot when it reaches this lat, As we have already seen several times these stronger systems want to track to our west and weaker systems have been further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 You know all i asked was a question, your right i am new to this site, i have no experience what so ever, i ask the question based from those that know, things maybe changing with a "ridge" etc, bringing more storms maybe within reach so to speak, as we get closer to the end of january, i was just "wondering" are the chances now greater then december? may be my question shouldnt have been placed on this thread, my bad, im sure you never posted any questions like this when you first joined this site..forgive me. I'll have you know that I hatched from my egg here on these very boards, flawless and clean as the slate into which the fifteen commandments were first struck by Moses. That having been said, I give you a hunger games rating number of 5. May the odds be ever in your favor as we await the thrilling back end of the 12z NAM. Back to models. Back to science. Back... to AMERICA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 it is possible that the kicker low could actually help us thread the needle as well. It's just too early for anyone to be coming on here and saying a certain scenario will definitely happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I'll have you know that I hatched from my egg here on these very boards, flawless and clean as the slate into which the fifteen commandments were first struck by Moses. That having been said, I give you a hunger games rating number of 5. May the odds be ever in your favor as we await the thrilling back end of the 12z NAM. Back to models. Back to science. Back... to AMERICA. What were you like 13 when you started? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 For the weekend are we again seeing a scenario of 2 potential shortwaves very close to each other? Wasn't that also the though for Wed and Friday events at some point? Will it be either Saturday-Sun or Monday-Tues that is the best shot? My view is that we have seen enough signals that one of these is going to get it together and come up along the coast. It seems there are so many shortwaves that the models are confused. The only big 2 storm event I've seen was the Dec 2008 deal. My guess is we either get the Wednesday clipper to pull far enough NE to create confluence for Saturday, or we get the Saturday wave to do same for Mon-Tues. Maybe one of them can do that little transient ridge towards Greenland and slow the flow enough briefly? It is hard for a weenie like me to step back from the model runs every few hours and look at the bigger picture here. Any decent analogs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 What were you like 13 when you started? Actually I was like 11 and it was weather.com... I used to throw an ice cube on the back porch to see if the ground was cool enough for snow to stick when hoping a storm would hit. Things were simpler then. This continent had not yet been discovered by the white man. But I'm not going to let the liberal Taunton media continue to keep us off topic. The 12z NAM looks very snowy for northern Texas and the Oklahoma panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 If you look at the setup this weekend, this is why it might be difficult to accomplish. You can't rule it out, but at first look...I'm not too excited yet. Here is hr 120. Prior to this, you had low pressure and WAA ahead of the low and Quebec. Not exactly text book setup. High pressure is way offshore which causes a lack of good differential temperature advection and thus a tigher CCB near the center. It also warms us up. Frontogenesis is lacking except from lower level forcing near the center. Also, while we have a ridge out west...Canada is not exactly a nice setup at 500mb at hr 120. And then at hr 144, the s/w responsible for the bomb se of ACK is about to pump up ridging in the east and boot the weekend low way OTS. hr 120 hr 120 500mb hr 144 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 So even if it does come closer, it could be rain near the coast. Perhaps snow inland...but it's not a great setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 New thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45438-model-discussion-for-late-january-into-february/?p=3268692 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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