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Western/Central Region Arctic Outbreak/New Year's Eve/New Year's Day/Early January Winter Storm

Srain

By Srain,
in Central/Western States

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Srain

Srain

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SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
126 PM CST WED DEC 31 2014

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-312330-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROTAN...ROBY...SWEETWATER...
STERLING CITY...ROBERT LEE...BRONTE...BALLINGER...WINTERS...
MERTZON...SAN ANGELO...EDEN...OZONA...ELDORADO...SONORA...
HASKELL...THROCKMORTON...WOODSON...STAMFORD...ANSON...HAMLIN...
ALBANY...ABILENE...CLYDE...BAIRD...CROSS PLAINS...COLEMAN...
BROWNWOOD...BRADY...SAN SABA...MENARD...JUNCTION...MASON
126 PM CST WED DEC 31 2014

.NOW...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY...

DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE VERY DANGEROUS RIGHT NOW...AND THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW. MANY ACCIDENTS HAVE
ALREADY OCCURRED...WITH AREA ROADS IMPASSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. WE
ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO STAY HOME IF AT ALL POSSIBLE. IF YOU MUST
VENTURE OUTSIDE...PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION AND TAKE YOUR TIME. A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...FREEZING RAIN...OR SLEET
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH 6 PM ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHEN THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MAY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

$$

DOLL

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Srain

Srain

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The upper trough that has brought snowy and icy conditions very far S into the SW and the Southern Rockies/Southern Plains finally begins to organize a second 700mb low over Southern New Mexico/NW Texas later today and begins to lift NE toward the Mid West/Great Lakes Region Saturday into Sunday. A very moist disturbance rides SE along the Northern stream ushering in another shot of cold Canadian air as the SW low pulls additional Eastern Pacific moisture over a cold modified air mass entrenched across West Central/NW Texas into Central Oklahoma where the stage is set for over running freezing rain and sleet that will cause treacherous conditions with numerous travel issues extending from Southern New Mexico into Southern Missouri. In the warm sector, strong to severe storms may develop as a Western Gulf low develops tonight and a warm front retreats N along the Central Gulf Coast where the SPC has placed a Slight Risk for Severe Storms across portions of SE Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama later this weekend as the busy Holiday travel period comes to an end.




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Srain

Srain

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0005
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1107 AM CST FRI JAN 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF W TX

   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

   VALID 021707Z - 022130Z

   SUMMARY...A BAND OF FREEZING RAIN WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS
   ACROSS PARTS OF W TX WITH ICE ACCRETION RATES UP TO AROUND 0.10
   IN/HR.

   DISCUSSION...FREEZING RAIN HIGHLIGHTED EARLIER THIS MORNING WITHIN
   MCD 0004 APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. IR CLOUD
   TOPS HAVE RECENTLY COOLED WITHIN A LOBE OF FORCED ASCENT DOWNSTREAM
   OF THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER SE AZ. THIS APPEARS
   TO BE SUPPORTING CONTINUOUS REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT
   A 50-MILE WIDE CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE TRANS-PECOS NE TOWARDS THE RED
   RIVER. METAR/MESONET OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
   THE 27-31 DEG F RANGE WITHIN THIS PRECIPITATION BAND. ALTHOUGH
   NEAR-SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MAINTENANCE OF A NLY
   COMPONENT WILL STILL YIELD CAA /ALBEIT QUITE WEAK/ TO SLOW LIMITED
   DIURNAL HEATING. WITH AN ABOVE-FREEZING WARM NOSE SAMPLED BY 12Z MAF
   RAOB...SETUP SHOULD YIELD PROLONGED ICE ACCUMULATIONS. THIS SCENARIO
   APPEARS WELL SIMULATED BY 12Z 4KM WRF-NMM GUIDANCE.

   ..GRAMS.. 01/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...

 

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