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MetHerb

January 2015 Pattern Discussion

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The EC keeps raising heights in that day 6-11 timeframe out west, though. Did it again today.

 

Still a flat ridge though, along with a very +NAO.  The northern branch of the split Pacific jet is wicked strong and just spilling right into North America through week 2.

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December 2014 QBO at 30mb -25.35

 

A drop from -23.65 in November:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep....s/qbo.u30.index

 

Most negative December -QBO at 30mb since data kept 1979.

 

December 2005 was the most negative at -25.05

 

There's QBO data back to 1948 here: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

 

This December's -QBO is also the strongest going back that far.

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Still a flat ridge though, along with a very +NAO.  The northern branch of the split Pacific jet is wicked strong and just spilling right into North America through week 2.

 

That ridge is pretty good through day 11, at least for us. But after is where it gets more ugly.  Not sure if it something that last a few days or longer as far as that Dec 2014 look at has at the end. It did seem like the MJO supports it a bit, but it was trying to raise heights in the GOAK at the end. The MJO forcing at 200mb weakens so not sure if that GOAK trough stays tight.

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Weeklies are in. Week 3 is sort of like what the end of the EC shows. That's the worst one. We go right back to a ridge in the Yukon Territory if week 4 is right. 

did you see the top analog on the supercomputer today?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

 

a day or so late, but still

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I agree with Ryan. Not likely.

Good to see some modeling indicators,super Ens has done pretty good. May be an indication of the beginning of the breakdown of the NAO, possibly the week of the 23rd, not the 16th as indicated here. I am encouraged though to see model support for my hemispheric pattern assumptions made before the support was shown. Maybe later but it's coming IMHO.

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There are some signs that a sweeping paradigm shift could be en route ... good luck timing that. 

 

For those arguing storm threats, you need that or your case is cooked.  Flow is still too fast and remains that way for the next seven days, amid the pantheon of numerical guidance -- to mention their ensembles/means.  Dry cold whiskey light snows, or chilling cold bold enough to offset the feeble winter sun's glow; accept it or go home. 

 

In other words... BOOOORRRIINNNNGGG. 

 

You simply can't run a cyclogenesis parade S of the 50th parallel on 100 DMs of gradient between James Bay and Florida.  

 

Having said that, the EPO is relaxing here.  See less cold load into Canada, which isn't a bad thing. We've really been Homer Simpson on a donut stuffing machine with this force feeding into the SPV.  So strong has that thing become that it is almost like the whole of the ambient arctic vortex fell off the pole and landed over central-eastern Canada. 

 

I think there are idiosyncrasies with that being so anomalous that it is making the AO positive, but it's like a "false" positive. But I won't go there. 

 

Anyway, less cold might still be potent, and a more relaxed gradient settling into a better +PNA is more than less suggested in the extended teleconnectors, and I think that is when we start to flip the script on this winter.  There are even signs the the NAO responds to R-wave forcing as those changes take place, which would only positively feed-back into bringing manageable cold south into better storm mechanics when all that unfolds. 

 

Patience.  

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I agree that there are signs we may see the NAO try. The strat vortex looks to get disturbed again later in the runs. Also, Tippy is right with relaxed forcing. IE, less cold, but maybe more storms. It's January so we don't need -10 anomalies at the surface for snow.

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Are the weeklies a torch MLK week or just warming to near normal which would still offer snow chances?

I wouldn't call it a torch, but it's definitely above normal overall for the week and would probably have a day or two of +15 or so sprinkled in there.

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They weren't that bad, and neither is the pattern right now in the 11-15 if you blend. The EC would stink for a week or so, but we will see. I'm not jumping off the nearest tall structure like some are. As long as we don't have the one eyed weenie over AK..we can deal.

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Weeklies definitely imply a Neg NAO trying to form, Scandinavia ridge. The Euro is finally getting a MJO clue and starting to agree slightly with the GEFS before plunging into the circle of death.

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There are some signs that a sweeping paradigm shift could be en route ... good luck timing that. 

 

For those arguing storm threats, you need that or your case is cooked.  Flow is still too fast and remains that way for the next seven days, amid the pantheon of numerical guidance -- to mention their ensembles/means.  Dry cold whiskey light snows, or chilling cold bold enough to offset the feeble winter sun's glow; accept it or go home. 

 

In other words... BOOOORRRIINNNNGGG. 

 

You simply can't run a cyclogenesis parade S of the 50th parallel on 100 DMs of gradient between James Bay and Florida.  

 

Having said that, the EPO is relaxing here.  See less cold load into Canada, which isn't a bad thing. We've really been Homer Simpson on a donut stuffing machine with this force feeding into the SPV.  So strong has that thing become that it is almost like the whole of the ambient arctic vortex fell off the pole and landed over central-eastern Canada. 

 

I think there are idiosyncrasies with that being so anomalous that it is making the AO positive, but it's like a "false" positive. But I won't go there.   We've got at least a week to 10 days though before anything of real importance might come along.  The clippers could bring some brief periods of excitement though if things break right.

 

Anyway, less cold might still be potent, and a more relaxed gradient settling into a better +PNA is more than less suggested in the extended teleconnectors, and I think that is when we start to flip the script on this winter.  There are even signs the the NAO responds to R-wave forcing as those changes take place, which would only positively feed-back into bringing manageable cold south into better storm mechanics when all that unfolds. 

 

Patience.  

 

Great post....both parts seem really valid as to how we progress.  We can work with less cold in the middle of winter if it can generate some better storminess than cold and arctic dry.  We may wait at least 7-10 days before anything of significance comes along, but the weak shortwaves of the clippers may provide brief periods of entertainment. 

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I believe winter is here and also agree with you. Pattern will relax, but not sure how yet. There is the outside chance it doesn't settle for us well. I think that needs to be realized. Didn't intend to raise fears or be a debbie downer but just looking ahead. Modeling really has been horrendus in the long range so it's difficult to guess.

I think one or two widespread colder events at least before the relaxation. Models hinting at a couple nice clipper events including that first one. Hopefully that continues. If we went cutter to a disappearing clipper act without boosting some seasonal totals I fear for this board's sanity.

 

 

This is what scares me. Does the pattern change stick around or does everything remain progressive? It's great that we are ushering in change, but hopefully modeling can look positive past the 10th or so in the next few days. I think there may be a 'mild up'  around 10th-12th after this extremely cold shot of air. Still fantasy range modeling but I hope to see more positive guidance as we head forward and no SE ridge.

 

 

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

NOTING A PATTERN CHANGE WITH DIGGING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE

EASTERN U.S. WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST DURING THIS

TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER...OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THOUGH

DOES SLOW.

My fears were partially realized ushering in this new pattern. Had the feeling a big wound up cutter would mess with the clipper coming on the back end. That's why it was really pointless to track at such a long timeframe out. We certainly have the colder air available now but we aren't really using it to its potential. That is okay with me. I'll always take seasons behaving as seasons even if it doesn't deliver. Bitter cold air can be impressive while sometimes not enjoyable. Similar to high dews and heat. I know there will be negativity but it would be shocking if this airmass departs without a blanket of snow or two. Some may say if its going to be this cold without snow they would rather a torch, but that completely just throws in the towel.

 

So the cutter gave snow, clipper evaporated to the south, and a solid chance exists for a light to moderate snowfall late week including squalls and showers. We'll take the lumps and swing away. Anything past late week is up in the air. Enjoy the wintry pattern while its here. Hopefully bigger threats emerge. 

 

Generally, a relaxation in the pattern might crack the door open for a significant storm as tippy and others mentioned today. Sometimes the pattern doesn't come in with a bang like you expect. The door is still open for an absolute ratter too still. Waiting game... 

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You'll know a ratter when you get it.

This is beginning to approach that. If we torch mlk is and see nothing significant over the preceding 2 weeks, then it's going to be tough to ignore. You can never rule out an epic feb and march but a good winter doesn't wait until February for real snow.

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By now in 2011-12, we knew we had a ratter. I honestly think this winter could turn around --- or at least have a decent period (a couple or few weeks) when we get periodic snows.

If I recall correctly people were saying Jan 10 to 15 would be the time when people were going to start questioning the winter. We still have time but an Mlk torch would be a disaster given the cold we have these next 2 weeks

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If I recall correctly people were saying Jan 10 to 15 would be the time when people were going to start questioning the winter. We still have time but an Mlk torch would be a disaster given the cold we have these next 2 weeks

Most pros have stated that this will probably just be temporary with the heights rising again out west following MLK weekend.  IDK, maybe it's bleak, but I still have hope for a winter that can deliver a week's worth of < 32F.

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