ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 one run is not a trend though, GEFS stay solid Agreed. No argument from me. Just that you always want to watch those things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 We technically didnt have a SSW last week...Now it was a very solid and brief split, and another shot to weaken the NAM/Polar vortex state and that has implications going forward here, but we shall see. We did have a SSW. It was a minor one, but still considered a SSW. The warming reached a daily record at 10hpa. I think this is partially what's helping to neutralize the AO state right now. Cohen also states that this was a SSW, though technically minor, significant at 10hpa. http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 We did have a SSW. It was a minor one, but still considered a SSW. The warming reached a daily record at 10hpa. I think this is partially what's helping to neutralize the AO state right now. Cohen also states that this was a SSW, though technically minor, significant at 10hpa. http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation I'm not trying to be a wise-a*s here, but are you and Cohen suggesting we had a minor significant stratospheric warming? A little oxy-moron there no? There is an exact definition for an SSW to be classified, and the early January event did not meet it..IE the wind reversal at 10mb...we may be debating silly technicalities though in the grand scheme of things and what pattern implications could be down the line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I'm not trying to be a wise-a*s here, but are you and Cohen suggesting we had a minor significant stratospheric warming? A little oxy-moron there no? Doesn't the first S stand for sudden? And I think that Cohen was saying that although the quantitative measurement of the warming event was minor, it was still enough to significantly perturb the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Doesn't the first S stand for sudden? And I think that Cohen was saying that although the quantitative measurement of the warming event was minor, it was still enough to significantly perturb the PV. Yes it does. I think he is thinking of MMWs (or Major Mid-Winter Warmings) which are a form of SSW...but more intense. The MMW requires a reversal in the wind field whereas the SSW does not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Doesn't the first S stand for sudden? And I think that Cohen was saying that although the quantitative measurement of the warming event was minor, it was still enough to significantly perturb the PV. My bad, 100% means sudden..apologies to Iso It has definitely perturbed the PV even if it has congealed back together since the split. I'm just not sure I agree with the whole notion that the warming event from early jan will mix down to the troposphere in the next 2 weeks and cause a -AO..If you want to tell me that the PV is significantly weakened as a result and will wobble around, hopefully away from Greenland, and/or take another shot in the jaw eventually, then I'm all for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Yes it does. I think he is thinking of MMWs (or Major Mid-Winter Warmings) which are a form of SSW...but more intense. The MMW requires a reversal in the wind field whereas the SSW does not. Thank you for semi-justifying my faulty thought process there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Well regardless of what it is , the outcome wasn't anything that will reverse the NAO at the moment. Hopefully with more tropospheric forcing, we can continue the bombardment , but we really need that vortex to split. Some....some signs it might in the 11-15 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 HPC 3-7 looks more interesting today. They are chucking the GEFS as too suppressed later in the week. They have the clipper redeveloping along the DE coast and tracking probably right across the BM - good for SNE not so good up here. Then on Thursday already there is a storm developing along the SC coast with something in the northern stream, and 1024 H over S Ontario. I hope the set-up is good to bring that baby just inside the BM. Will the clipper provide a little temporary blocking to slow it down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Thank you for semi-justifying my faulty thought process there Well you were correct in your reasoning...just it was for the MMW, not the SSW. It is the MMW that has a really big impact anyway (thus your argument for reversal in wind field being something we wanted to see). A minor SSW helps but certainly isn't a game changer in itself. The waves continuing to hit the vortex though should help given that it's already weakened somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Well you were correct in your reasoning...just it was for the MMW, not the SSW. It is the MMW that has a really big impact anyway (thus your argument for reversal in wind field being something we wanted to see). A minor SSW helps but certainly isn't a game changer in itself. The waves continuing to hit the vortex though should help given that it's already weakened somewhat. Yeah I definitely agree with all of that Will. More warmer shifts on the 12z EPS coming in here by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 What we need and it's a proven entity A MJBM, a Major Jerry Bowel Movement. Since the great movement in the winter of 1960 all Eastern favored snow regimes hemispheric indices correlate highly when a MJBM occurs. Exceptions being the 1989 MJBM when a false signal was emitted possibly due to medicinal constipated blocked flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 What we need and it's a proven entity A MJBM, a Major Jerry Bowel Movement. Since the great movement in the winter of 1960 all Eastern favored snow regimes hemispheric indices correlate highly when a MJBM occurs. Exceptions being the 1989 MJBM when a false signal was emitted possibly due to medicinal constipated blocked flow. Steve uses comedy to hedge... I like it. p.s. Don't spike the football over D10+ progs. Defenders are now converging on Gronk and the pass may get intercepted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Steve uses comedy to hedge... I like it. p.s. Don't spike the football over D10+ progs. Defenders are now converging on Gronk and the pass may get intercepted. Euro Ens look fabulous what you talking about Willis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Yeah I definitely agree with all of that Will. More warmer shifts on the 12z EPS coming in here by the way. eps4.PNG Yeah that medium range in the D8-11 period doesn't look nearly as cold now in the northern tier...but it does have a decent look with a vigorous northern stream shortwave that tries and interacts with something in the south...increasing storm signal there for a Miller B-ish look. It's still plenty cold enough for snow. It looks like the Euro does return to ball-shriveling cold in the extreme LR beyond D12 as the EPO craters....that ridge goes basically to the north pole. Both the Euro and EC ensembles are pretty good agreement about that big -EPO beyond the 27th-28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Yeah that medium range in the D8-11 period doesn't look nearly as cold now in the northern tier...but it does have a decent look with a vigorous northern stream shortwave that tries and interacts with something in the south...increasing storm signal there for a Miller B-ish look. It's still plenty cold enough for snow. It looks like the Euro does return to ball-shriveling cold in the extreme LR beyond D12 as the EPO craters....that ridge goes basically to the north pole. Both the Euro and EC ensembles are pretty good agreement about that big -EPO beyond the 27th-28th. I'd say it's more -WPO now than -EPO in the d12+ range, but thats not bad at all if the hope is for snow. Still plenty of chances face value on the eps here, but as far as the extreme cold that was on models the other day, man oh man what a shift in 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 are we really using surface temp changes on the Euro Ens? The Euro Ens looks great for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 are we really using surface temp changes on the Euro Ens? The Euro Ens looks great for us He's just syaing the ridiculous cold it had yesterday isn't there today...it's still cold, which of course is fine. Esp in late January when climo temps are good enough for snow. The ridge around 1/25-27 is flatter than previous runs which limits the cold. But the WPO/EPO ridge still goes to the north pole in later frames which makes Canada frigid and the northern tier below average...just not all the way to Texas and Alabama like earlier runs. It's still pretty cold after D12...that plot would probably look a little more impressive if it only was post-28th. But we are talking relatively minor difference for our own sensible wx in New England...its a good pattern for snow chances. I would like a real -NAO though. Hints of east-based, but nothing concrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 are we really using surface temp changes on the Euro Ens? The Euro Ens looks great for us My post about the CONUS temp changes on the EPS Ginxy is more aimed towards the fact that it was incredible for a 51 member mean (ive never seen anything like it in 3 years of following EVERY run closely)..and it matters immensely for my job... Otherwise, the only thing I'll say for what everyone wantas in this thread (snow), is lets hope these rapid run-run pattern changes stop right here, but the chances upcoming still look good face value on guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 My post about the CONUS temp changes on the EPS Ginxy is more aimed towards the fact that it matters immensely for my job... Otherwise, the only thing I'll say is lets hope these rapid run-run changes stop right here. Ha gotcha, I tend to look at 5H post day ten, Euro Ens surface temps are wildly wrong very often especially with snowcover. Functionally the Upper air pattern is all I look at post day ten, a smidgen flatter ridge on a miller B day then a reload of -EPO -WPO is all I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Ha gotcha, I tend to look at 5H post day ten, Euro Ens surface temps are wildly wrong very often especially with snowcover. Functionally the Upper air pattern is all I look at post day ten, a smidgen flatter ridge on a miller B day then a reload of -EPO -WPO is all I see. No real arguments with what you have to say there... and you are right the snow cover feedback can be an issue this time of year. I cant really quantify it visually off the top of my head in the time I've been following this stuff, but other than snow cover the EPS usually has a warm bias such that when it shows that extent of belows in the 11-15 day composite (and the 500mb pattern was exceptionally bullish to support that set of runs from 12z wed through 12z yesterday), its usually a very good bet... Here are the 500mb composites for those maps in mmy prior post..The EPO-nao component has weakened drastically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 No real arguments with what you have to say there... and you are right the snow cover feedback can be an issue this time of year. I cant really quantify it visually off the top of my head in the time I've been following this stuff, but other than snow cover the EPS usually has a warm bias such that when it shows that extent of belows in the 11-15 day composite (and the 500mb pattern was exceptionally bullish to support that set of runs from 12z wed through 12z yesterday), its usually a very good bet... Here are the 500mb composites for those maps in mmy prior post..The EPO-nao component has weakened drastically eps mean 500.PNG not trying to be oppo, but I actually like the latest look,. The cold overwhelming the pattern and forcing suppression is not what I want to see, with the trough axis closer to us that could be lots of fun. anyways lets see how this hakes out as thats a pretty stout signal for the 25th-27th period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 not trying to be oppo, but I actually like the latest look,. The cold overwhelming the pattern and forcing suppression is not what I want to see, with the trough axis closer to us that could be lots of fun. anyways lets see how this hakes out as thats a pretty stout signal for the 25th-27th period. yeah and I think I actually agree with you about the newest run looking better for new england snow.. the colder look may have been too suppressed for all we know, but i would have taken the better nao hopes. Just got to hold this look now on guidance, which I dont have a lot of confidence in considering the erratic-ness of the last 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Problem with this look is that cutter potential is there if PNA drops, but fook it...take the chances with increased QPF. I'm done with the dry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I'm done with the dry weather. I heard something about rain on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 yeah and I think I actually agree with you about the newest run looking better for new england snow.. the colder look may have been too suppressed for all we know, but i would have taken the better nao hopes. Just got to hold this look now on guidance, which I dont have a lot of confidence in considering the erratic-ness of the last 3 days i always have low confidence in the 11-15 day ens as a whole, just too erratic, hows that thaw working out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I think it would be pretty funny to achieve balls cold and snow futility. What are the chances for that ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 What we need and it's a proven entity A MJBM, a Major Jerry Bowel Movement. Since the great movement in the winter of 1960 all Eastern favored snow regimes hemispheric indices correlate highly when a MJBM occurs. Exceptions being the 1989 MJBM when a false signal was emitted possibly due to medicinal constipated blocked flow. Jerry did you dump yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I think it would be pretty funny to achieve balls cold and snow futility. What are the chances for that ever? Jan-march '04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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