WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Merry Christmas everyone! The medium/long range discussion now takes us to the cusp of and into January. The old thread is at 60 pages, and, more importantly....let's change the mojo. Looks like lots of chances coming...even if none stand out. Go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 This threads gonna be epic!!!! Looks like our winter really gets in gear some time in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 12z GGEM is mainly rain for DC/NoVa/Southern MD with some Sleet mixing in for Monday. Decent thump N & W of the cities. Has a weak overrunning system on the 3rd which gives the whole area plowable snow. I for one am interested, just one model run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 12z GGEM is mainly rain for DC/NoVa/Southern MD with some Sleet mixing in for Monday. Decent thump N & W of the cities. Has a weak overrunning system on the 3rd which gives the whole area plowable snow. I for one am interested, just one model run though. The Canadian has been showing snow for a while now. Too bad it isn't a very good model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2014 Author Share Posted December 25, 2014 The Canadian has been showing snow for a while now. Too bad it isn't a very good model. Seemingly shows snow every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Euro has a fantasy ice to rain storm on the 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Euro has a fantasy ice to rain storm on the 3rd.Sounds like it's moving in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2014 Author Share Posted December 25, 2014 Euro has a fantasy ice to rain storm on the 3rd. You would think that has a CAD chance. 1040 high hanging off the coast of Maine, cold air mass in place before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Temp rises from 32 to like 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Not much to like about today's runs as the NAO goes strongly positive in the 6-10 means of both the operational Euro and GFS and both keep the ridging in the Pacific too far west. The Alaskan ridge will help cold air build across canada but it will plunge way west and until the ridge shifts east any strong storm is likely to go to our west. The pattern looks more nina-ish than nino-ish right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Not much to like about today's runs as the NAO goes strongly positive in the 6-10 means of both the operational Euro and GFS and both keep the ridging in the Pacific too far west. The Alaskan ridge will help cold air build across canada but it will plunge way west and until the ridge shifts east any strong storm is likely to go to our west. The pattern looks more nina-ish than nino-ish right now. You should stop writing positive articles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Today was definitely a disaster and step back. But again, I think the fast flow gives us some hope that the models are off. Not despondent yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 At this point in the winter you start to get that gut feeling of how things are going to turn out based on consistent patterns over the past several weeks.. My gut doesn't feel that good, and it isn't from the rum and egg nog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 So what are the chances the ridge placement is isn't being handled correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Euro ens backed off a good bit on snow chances for the next 10 days. I feel the same way Yeoman does to some extent. It has the feel of things not syncing up this year. It can change of course but if that's weeks in the future then big snow calls are going to have an uphill battle. Still a pattern that can produce so this run of the ens isn't very meaningful. Just not something I wanted to see. GEFS was no better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 You should stop writing positive articles :)I didn't hink yesterday's was that positive. Climo is still pretty low when you are dealing with a 6 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 So what are the chances the ridge placement is isn't being handled correctly Pretty good agreement that the mean trough in the conus will be centered out west. As Wes already said, with no blocking in the atlantic we're going to have a tough time establishing an extended chance pattern. The ridge could verify weaker and flatter and we still have inherent problems with anything organized. Just gotta hope for a wave quickly after a cold front passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I'm not terribly worried. We're always on the line here, and we know the models are having a tough time handling the pattern--as evidenced by the seeming run to run snow to no snow mess. Not saying we rock moving forward, but also not ready to say the modeled snow will always be 10 days away. But we're not even getting modeled snow any more... :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 But we're not even getting modeled snow any more... :-/ Let's hope that works in our favor . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Was reading DTs blog post...talks about MJO phase 4,5,6 coming up meaning warm from mid-late Jan...maybe phase 7 in Feb...we have to prepared for the fact we may punt nearly two months. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 At this point in the winter you start to get that gut feeling of how things are going to turn out based on consistent patterns over the past several weeks.. My gut doesn't feel that good, and it isn't from the rum and egg nog.My gut says we're ok. Climo is still pretty bad. If we do get a blocky period I'm sure glad we didn't waste it on December. Weaker ninos tend to be backloaded anyway. At this point if you gave me an over/under of 10" at DCA and 15" at IAD I'd bet the over in 2 seconds. Those aren't exactly compelling numbers but doesn't mean I think we are just limited to exceeding them slightly. We really aren't wasting productive windows until January 15th. Our collective concern is certainly understandable but it isn't really rational. What very well could happen is we get a decent percentage between 2/15 and 3/10 and I know not everyone is a fan of snow late season. Off the top of my head this is where I stood on January 15th and my final total. 2004-05: T/17" 2006-07: T/14" 2008-09: T/10" 2013-14: 4"/37" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Was reading DTs blog post...talks about MJO phase 4,5,6 coming up meaning warm from mid-late Jan...maybe phase 7 in Feb...we have to prepared for the fact we may punt nearly two months. Wow. If that's right, then we're screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Euro ens backed off a good bit on snow chances for the next 10 days. I feel the same way Yeoman does to some extent. It has the feel of things not syncing up this year. It can change of course but if that's weeks in the future then big snow calls are going to have an uphill battle. Still a pattern that can produce so this run of the ens isn't very meaningful. Just not something I wanted to see. GEFS was no better. Cohen threw us a bone...just 3 to 4 more weeks. You guys did pretty good in 09/10 and 13/14 with a backloaded winter. https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Cohen threw us a bone...just 3 to 4 more weeks. You guys did pretty good in 09/10 and 13/14 with a backloaded winter. https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation a back loaded winter is his only hope to avoid a monumental bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Cohen threw us a bone...just 3 to 4 more weeks. You guys did pretty good in 09/10 and 13/14 with a backloaded winter. https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation I think we still do well but probably most of out snow is going to fall in feb. If the one dec storm in 2009 had not happened that winter wouldn't have really started until late jan. This isn't a disaster yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 a back loaded winter is his only hope to avoid a monumental bust I think (SCE/SAI) is going to bust. Unless some how the AO is not super positive the first 2 weeks of Jan and there there is a dramatic flip to a strongly negative AO for back half of the winter. That is really hard to imagine at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Come on guys, snap out of it. Look, I'm impatient and wanna see modeled snow too...but any December snow around here is bonus. If this were February 1st, instead of Dec 25th, then yeah, I'd start to panic. Chin up....in a few weeks, I'm gonna bump this post as we're getting raked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I think we still do well but probably most of out snow is going to fall in feb. If the one dec storm in 2009 had not happened that winter wouldn't have really started until late jan. This isn't a disaster yet.Sorta. We did also get dec 5 and the clipper early mo. Most of Jan 'sucked' yeah and anyone would take that stretch and nothing else... But I still say it's a little concerning that almost no one has seen any snow in Dec around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I think (SCE/SAI) is going to bust. Unless some how the AO is not super positive the first 2 weeks of Jan and there there is a dramatic flip to a strongly negative AO for back half of the winter. That is really hard to imagine at this point. I agree with Mitch. Cohen has been pushing the fabled ssw back in time since Dec began. It reminds me of us weenies doing the "pattern change is coming in 2 weeks!". He's certainly concerned after last year. The thing is, we don't even need a ssw for a -ao/nao. We've had plenty without it and this year is anything but so far. That's probably the biggest glaring issue with the blah winter in the east so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 My gut says we're ok. Climo is still pretty bad. If we do get a blocky period I'm sure glad we didn't waste it on December. Weaker ninos tend to be backloaded anyway. At this point if you gave me an over/under of 10" at DCA and 15" at IAD I'd bet the over in 2 seconds. Those aren't exactly compelling numbers but doesn't mean I think we are just limited to exceeding them slightly. We really aren't wasting productive windows until January 15th. Our collective concern is certainly understandable but it isn't really rational. What very well could happen is we get a decent percentage between 2/15 and 3/10 and I know not everyone is a fan of snow late season. Off the top of my head this is where I stood on January 15th and my final total. 2004-05: T/17" 2006-07: T/14" 2008-09: T/10" 2013-14: 4"/37" We're far from out of the game for some storms and maybe a memorable one (or even 2...greed is fun). The weird thing so far is so much looked at least decent this fall (enso, pdo, sci/sce, opi) that it brought on collective thoughts of a big one. I was always skeptical of that but it's pretty odd to see almost everyone east of the MS kinda sucking it so far and basically scrambling for something. Anything. I know we suck more often then not but a lot of areas that don't suck are sucking pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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