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January Forecast Discussion


REDMK6GLI

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I think normal is going to be difficult given the SST pattern with near record warmth off the East Coast and

the cold pool NE favoring a mostly +AO pattern. This regime favors a strong SE Ridge/WAR with amplified

storms cutting right through the end of January. Trying to get back to normal with below normal December

and January snowfall is a tough task.

 

attachicon.gifSST.gif

For nyc yes but north and west I think normal or even above is possible.

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I think normal is going to be difficult given the SST pattern with near record warmth off the East Coast and

the cold pool NE favoring a mostly +AO pattern. This regime favors a strong SE Ridge/WAR with amplified

storms cutting right through the end of January. Trying to get back to normal with below normal December

and January snowfall is a tough task.

 

attachicon.gifSST.gif

 

If January is below normal, then yes I'd agree that its about time to give up on normal.  As pointed out though, we're not sure it will happen.

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Clipper is just snow showers for the area. Maybe a dusting? That would be nice.

 

So far other 12Z models dig it more and are south of the GFS...the pattern to me supports a track to our south, I think the GFS is too far north, at least the Op, I have not seen individual ensembles yet...its too early to know but we could get a couple of inches from this if it goes over SNJ where I think it will...its not going to pull a dig and redevelop job but it may get some juice from the NATL.  I'd say 48 more hours til we get a better idea.

 

***12Z GFS ensembles unfortunately mostly north...some are quite potent with it as well.

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I went into this winter with a bunch of analogs and all had more snowfall than the year before...after last years 57" I figured this year won't be as much...it's possible NYC could end up with a quarter to half of that...1951-52 was the analog with the least amount of snowfall with 19.7"...

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I went into this winter with a bunch of analogs and all had more snowfall than the year before...after last years 57" I figured this year won't be as much...it's possible NYC could end up with a quarter to half of that...1951-52 was the analog with the least amount of snowfall with 19.7"...

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html

 

Reference for all the past years..

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Gfs is 2-4 for the clipper! Tracks south of us and throws back a bit of moisture

Very nice ! A few inches of snow followed by bitter cold in early January.....can't ask for more than that this winter. I've noticed that the parallel in general seems to be running warmer than the GFS. Do you know how each has verified so far compared to the other?
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Very nice ! A few inches of snow followed by bitter cold in early January.....can't ask for more than that this winter. I've noticed that the parallel in general seems to be running warmer than the GFS. Do you know how each has verified so far compared to the other?

The GFS has continued to outperform the parallel GFS.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/12Z/

 

Given what has been a persistent performance gap, I'm really not sure why the parallel will be replacing the current GFS on 1/14. Hopefully, the change will be delayed.

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The GFS has continued to outperform the parallel GFS.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/12Z/

Given what has been a persistent performance gap, I'm really not sure why the parallel will be replacing the current GFS on 1/14. Hopefully, the change will be delayed.

Thanks Don.....It confirms what I was thinking, just by how the last few storms played out. There's clearly something wrong with it.....And to replace a model that already is not exactly the best model, with one that has performed even worse just seems backwards

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Let's see what models look like by Sunday. For clipper. I would be very happy with 2-4 inch event but ...I don't trust any model just yet.

If the models weaken the energy and track it north of us, I don't see us having a shot at more than some snow showers. We usually need these to move south of us and be potent enough aloft to survive being shredded by the mountains.

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Thanks Don.....It confirms what I was thinking, just by how the last few storms played out. There's clearly something wrong with it.....And to replace a model that already is not exactly the best model, with one that has performed even worse just seems backwards

On the latest verification charts, the current version is outperforming the parallel on all the categories (heights, slp, temperature, winds) for both the 0z and 12z runs (no scores are provided for 6z and 18z). The persistence of the performance gap and its being widespread strongly suggests that the parallel is not as good as the version it is replacing. The new assimilation framework may be better, but something is resulting in overall worse performance.

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Guest Pamela

Perhaps those warm waters off the coast will provide extra energy for our clipper.

Low expectations continue but it's something to track knowing rain would not be the result.

 

Long Island may ultimately receive slightly higher amounts...particularly assuming a surface feature that tracks off the central NJ coast and, as it "turns the proverbial corner"...deepens just a bit and taps the veritable bathwater offshore...could conceivably see a bit of a snowburst out there...particularly towards sunset Tuesday. 

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But those higher heights doesn't necessarily translate to warm temps at the surface not to mention we're going off a Day 10 map. The Gfs really hits the PNA like style ridging hard and thus the storm threats.

I could see a few SWFE and maybe even a nice digging disturbance that translates to the coast.

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