REDMK6GLI Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 As we ring in 2015 very soon lets talk about what the first month of the new year may have in store for us. HOT TOPIC has been the el nino and can it live up to its reputation and once again be backloaded and make up for our dismal december snowfall departures. Battle between EURO & GFS continues for the forecasted pattern for january, find out more about it in this thread Lets keep it constructive and the banter in the banter thread please. Look forward to seeing some great discussion yet again that we saw in the December Forecast Discussion thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 For what its worth since this isn't the main driver for the CONUS temps. CFS v2 MJO forecast. If the CFS isn't your cup of tea then try the European. (Temp composite based on phase) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 A little early for a Jan disco thread, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 21, 2014 Author Share Posted December 21, 2014 A little early for a Jan disco thread, no? Nope, some already bringing up a NYE threat so that can start being discussed more at length in here since it pertains to january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 From the Climate Prediction Center. Does not tell us much. Equal chances for the NYC metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I very much agreed with that post Patrick made in the December thread about how obsessing over the proper synchronization of 9 different indexes is probably not the best way to divine the meteorological future. Those indexes are a tool; not an end in themselves. Moreover, the chances of them all lining up just as you would have them are slim at best; and even if they did...there is still no guarantee that a major snowstorm would be the result...though obviously, the odds would be greatly enhanced. Being the simple soul that I am, I stick to the basics when looking ahead...a well entrenched cold regime...but not too well entrenched...and clear signs that would hint at weaknesses in the pressure field that would lead to potential cyclogenesis well off to our south & west (except of course if we are looking at one of those Alberta Clippers, Manitoba Maulers, or Saskatchewan Screamers). The other basics (50/50 Low in place, nice Hudson Bay High over Ontario & Quebec and just the slightest hint of a SE Ridge) usually tell me what I need to know. But I in no way am criticizing those who are seeking deeper insight into what drives winter weather in this area...striving for knowledge is among the most noble of pursuits...just saying what works for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Larry cosgrove still believes January will be cold he says we will have a 10 day thaw around mid month otherwise he sticks by his cold and snowy forecast!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Larry cosgrove still believes January will be cold he says we will have a 10 day thaw around mid month otherwise he sticks by his cold and snowy forecast!!!! There's a separate thread for this http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39531-vendor-blog-and-tv-channel-forecasts-thread/page-41#entry3204507 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Larry cosgrove still believes January will be cold he says we will have a 10 day thaw around mid month otherwise he sticks by his cold and snowy forecast!!!! How cold does he say it will be? Seasonably cold or abnormally cold?...because January is usually fairly cold even if temperatures are normal... I once had a prof who said that "the previous January was cold on Long Island"...and I reminded him that the departure from normal was about +2.0 F...causing his argument to fall rather flat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 CPC week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 One thing I would add to your analysis Pam is the mechanism to provide lift (e.g., along the surface of a front, up the slopes of a higher terrain and where winds converge. For those of us that like a lots of snow those Alberta Clippers, etc usually have low QPF and hence only light snow falls. PS: you are too smart and should have been a met Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 One thing I would add to your analysis Pam is the mechanism to provide lift (e.g., along the surface of a front, up the slopes of a higher terrain and where winds converge. For those of us that like a lots of snow those Alberta Clippers, etc usually have low QPF and hence only light snow falls. PS: you are too smart and should have been a met That is very kind of you to say and puts a big smile on my face! Thnxs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I want Xmas rain event to go by so we can get more clarity on what the future holds in terms of snow chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 That is very kind of you to say and puts a big smile on my face! Thnxs! Your welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Bluewave is going to end being correct on this pattern change...we have a 5 day window then we go back to +epo and +nao...hopefully we don't loose the cold air in Canada...honestly I don't know where we go from here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Bluewave is going to end being correct on this pattern change...we have a 5 day window then we go back to +epo and +nao...hopefully we don't loose the cold air in Canada...honestly I don't know where we go from here... Widespread chance 12/28-1/5 period. Then the pattern looks to go in the toilet. Early January thaw....then into the ice box. We didn't have the thaw last year, but it's a phenomenon that happens most years and has been well-documented, so chances are we get one this season. Hopefully that's all we are seeing where the EPO and NAO go positive but then we can get them to tank during the middle of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Small window here guys. Dec 28 jan 8. Euro weeklies smell. The next question is after this 10 day period which will be below normal prob starting on the 28th. When we pull back where do we go and for how long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Widespread chance 12/28-1/5 period. Then the pattern looks to go in the toilet. Early January thaw....then into the ice box. We didn't have the thaw last year, but it's a phenomenon that happens most years and has been well-documented, so chances are we get one this season. Hopefully that's all we are seeing where the EPO and NAO go positive but then we can get them to tank during the middle of the month. I thought the "Jan. Thaw" is near the 20th of the month on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Widespread chance 12/28-1/5 period. Then the pattern looks to go in the toilet. Early January thaw....then into the ice box. We didn't have the thaw last year, but it's a phenomenon that happens most years and has been well-documented, so chances are we get one this season. Hopefully that's all we are seeing where the EPO and NAO go positive but then we can get them to tank during the middle of the month. When is the last time we have had a significant, sustained -NAO during the winter? Yeah, 2009-10. We had a severely -AO last winter with no meaningful NA blocking, with the QBO very positive. Its been in a negative phase this fall/winter but still the NAO remains positive or neutral. I am beginning to think its a meteorological impossibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 CFSv2 weeklies for Jan. currently offer little more than normal temps. for second half of month. Big cold at start now muted? The monthly looks a little hopeful: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2mProb.20141223.201501.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Small window here guys. Dec 28 jan 8. Euro weeklies smell. The next question is after this 10 day period which will be below normal prob starting on the 28th. When we pull back where do we go and for how long. euro weeklies have been horrible all season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Small window here guys. Dec 28 jan 8. Euro weeklies smell. The next question is after this 10 day period which will be below normal prob starting on the 28th. When we pull back where do we go and for how long. They haven't been good at all. Take the long range models with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Never dismiss guidance because you don`t like it . Yes the weeklies have been bad but it will not take much for it to be right . I hope they are wrong but that does not mean I ignore them . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Whoever has Wxbell might be interested to see this: http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/yecmwf_strat.php They just have 50hpa for now, pv split day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Whoever has Wxbell might be interested to see this: http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/yecmwf_strat.php They just have 50hpa for now, pv split day 10 It's been 10 days away since mid November, when you see it inside 48hrs, that's when it will occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 You should check out the 18z strat progs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 It's been 10 days away since mid November, when you see it inside 48hrs, that's when it will occur. I admit that I haven't been looking at it that much, but 10 days away constantly since mid Nov? Not sure I buy that. I remember the elongation during Nov, but then re-establishing itself. I was posting more for the link, which is new. Since I posted it in the Jan. thread, I just thought I would mention what it shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 You should check out the 18z strat progs... Massive split...ECMWF Ens have been bullish as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Massive split...ECMWF Ens have been bullish as well. Yep. And it follows through till the end of the run. If that signal holds. that's a legit SSW. Let's see how it looks in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Euro continues the massive PV split idea on last night's 0z. Encouraging signs for prolonged cold and storminess in January and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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