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andyhb

Predict/Guess the Number of Tornadoes and the First High Risk of 2015

Number of Tornadoes in 2015  

64 members have voted

  1. 1. Number of Tornadoes



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I actually would not be surprised if we don't get a High Risk outlook this year. I hope I'm wrong, but there are no big signs right now if any major pattern change that would flag a strong potential for a High Risk setup. There is some hope that things turn active by the second half of May or June, but only time will tell.

 

There's really been a lack of strong synoptic systems to warrant this kind of potential over the past couple or so years, there's really only been two that can easily be picked out and those were 11/17/13 and 4/27-28/14.

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Can 2015 turn in the 3rd consecutive year with tornado counts 2+ standard deviations below the mean?

 

4th right? (2012, 13, 14, and now 15) To go almost half a decade without reaching 1000 tornadoes is definitely impressive in this era.

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4th right? (2012, 13, 14, and now 15) To go almost half a decade without reaching 1000 tornadoes is definitely impressive in this era.

 

Oh...you're right! 

 

3PyzMH8.png

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We are breaking out of the multi-year neutral ENSO phase into a Nino which may offer some promise to the High Plains/W TX for the first time in several years.

 

This is working out pretty well...

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You might come within 48 hours provided Saturday keeps trending the way it is.

I never made it back to check but which day wound up being the first high risk day or has it happened yet?

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Can't say that Saturday (5/16 early preliminaries) was really anywhere near verifying High Risk. In fact, very few severe reports, period, in the Kansas/Nebraska areas. Nice small-scale event in Minnesota:
post-533-0-71382000-1431842284_thumb.png

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It seems like SPC has been rightfully cautious about going with higher-end outlooks. There haven't even been many MDT risks, nor have there been many setups supportive, at least recently. Tomorrow may very well go MDT, but this season, while active, has been full of under-performing events and "higher-end" severe threats that just didn't materialize. And so it continues...

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It seems like SPC has been rightfully cautious about going with higher-end outlooks. There haven't even been many MDT risks, nor have there been many setups supportive, at least recently. Tomorrow may very well go MDT, but this season, while active, has been full of under-performing events and "higher-end" severe threats that just didn't materialize. And so it continues...

Unless the fall season goes absolutely bonkers this year like it did in 2013, I doubt we'll see any high risk setups for the remainder of the year. Could get a high risk for wind in July but I think the window for 30%+ TOR probs has closed on us for a while.

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Correct me if I'm wrong but still no high risk?  That gives us a good shot at making it through the remainder of the year without one.  Since 2000, only 5 years have had a post-July high risk: 2001, 2002, 2005, 2010, and 2013. 

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Correct me if I'm wrong but still no high risk?  That gives us a good shot at making it through the remainder of the year without one.  Since 2000, only 5 years have had a post-July high risk: 2001, 2002, 2005, 2010, and 2013. 

 

Correct. However 2010 was based on a wind probability and not a TOR probability.

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Anybody have the current official count of strong (EF2+) tornadoes? I believe (someone correct me if I'm wrong) 1987 had the fewest with 83.

 

We're probably going to outdo that in the futility category this year unless fall really goes nuts.

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We're probably going to outdo that in the futility category this year unless fall really goes nuts.

 

That's what I was thinking. If the Wikipedia inventory is even remotely close (they currently list 47) then I figured 2015 might have a good shot at that record. I can't track down the official counts broken down by EF scale for the current year though. I guess we have to wait until the SPC publishes the counts in 2016?

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The next couple of weeks look rather dull with near to above average heights across the western half of the U.S. and some troughing in the East. I wouldn't get too excited about the end of October either. We'll probably have to rely on November for any late-season fireworks.

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Nice call Quincy. I don't see anything terribly exciting in the near future right now. How does a raging El Nino effect fall outbreaks? I've seen some really good data on the effect for spring outbreaks, but not much during the fall?

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Nice call Quincy. I don't see anything terribly exciting in the near future right now. How does a raging El Nino effect fall outbreaks? I've seen some really good data on the effect for spring outbreaks, but not much during the fall?

 

From what I've seen, fall events are a bit too sporadic to form a climatological stance on whether certain ENSO/etc. makes them more likely. There have been big events heading into Ninos such as 11/10/2002 and 11/7-8/1957 (also the big December event that year), but there have also been big events heading into other phases such as 11/17/2013, 11/25/1926, 11/21-23/1992, 11/15/1989, 10/18/2007, etc.

 

While an enhanced ST jet may provide more shear, it also tends to make lapse rates weaker (as we saw this past spring) by advecting moist air from the E Pacific in the mid levels over warm sectors. While shear does tend to trump instability this time of year, lapse rates tend to be rather crucial in getting bigger events to happen since it obviously helps having stronger updrafts even if they aren't necessarily the 60,000 ft beasts you see in May.

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From what I've seen, fall events are a bit too sporadic to form a climatological stance on whether certain ENSO/etc. makes them more likely. There have been big events heading into Ninos such as 11/10/2002 and 11/7-8/1957 (also the big December event that year), but there have also been big events heading into other phases such as 11/17/2013, 11/25/1926, 11/21-23/1992, 11/15/1989, 10/18/2007, etc.

 

While an enhanced ST jet may provide more shear, it also tends to make lapse rates weaker (as we saw this past spring) by advecting moist air from the E Pacific in the mid levels over warm sectors. While shear does tend to trump instability this time of year, lapse rates tend to be rather crucial in getting bigger events to happen since it obviously helps having stronger updrafts even if they aren't necessarily the 60,000 ft beasts you see in May.

 

 Hopefully as we move deeper into November and early December when hopefully EPAC activity dies down lapse rates won't be as much of an issue, as generally speaking the largest fall outbreaks (at least across the south) don't happen until mid-late November and into December.

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Tornado counts and tracks through August. Well below average overall, but a cluster above from parts of the central High Plains to the southern/central Plains. Illinois is also running above. 

 

Should get a little nudge up from this past week's system and the one coming up, but unless there's a major outbreak - and time is running out - it looks like we will stay below average for the year.

post-533-0-47535500-1447444084_thumb.png

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You could make a case that nationwide, this year is the most pathetic out of the recent string of below average years, especially when talking about the strong/violent tornado count.  The number of those stronger tornadoes for this year is really remarkable.

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You could make a case that nationwide, this year is the most pathetic out of the recent string of below average years, especially when talking about the strong/violent tornado count.  The number of those stronger tornadoes for this year is really remarkable.

 

Let's not say "it can't possibly get quieter" anymore.

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