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40/70 Benchmark

12/20 Pre Grinch Mood Snows

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Euro is pretty warm for the system. Drives warmth up to nh border. Then of course the rainer on the euro and ensembles 12/24 followed by winter.

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WPC says yes

THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS BEEN LESS STABLE IN ITS

DETAILS BUT BY NO MEANS UNUSABLE... AND IN FACT USED A 50/50
WEIGHTING BETWEEN IT AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE FORECAST -- FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY -- AS THE LOW PUSHES THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN TURNS NORTHEASTWARD AND HEADS INTO THE
ATLANTIC... LIKELY PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK. 

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The EC ensembles are still relatively wet. GGEM ensembles are nice too and the 6z gives some decent precip. While anything can happen 6 days out, silly to mail it end.

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I think this afternoon's and tonight's runs are an inflection point.  If you look back 2 days when the Euro was alone in producing a significant storm up into New England, you can see the Euro slowly backing off and making this a storm for the Mid Atlantic maybe scraping SNE while the other models are starting to show a storm, but not one for most of New England.  Give the Euro Ens the edge here so far as it is the only one showing a significant coastal storm from 2-3 days ago...other models have come towards it while it has gone a bit SE and a bit weaker.

 

Sometimes the models lose a storm and then it comes back stronger inside 4 days, looking somewhat closer to what was portrayed in earlier model runs.  This doesn't look like one of those scenarios in general, but it could be, especially given a pattern that has been prone to amplification and trends to the NW (i.e. last week).  I think 24 hours from now we will have an idea of which direction this is heading in.  I think there will be a storm just off the Middle Atlantic coast but probably not 4+ for CNE or NNE.

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The EC ensembles are still relatively wet. GGEM ensembles are nice too and the 6z gives some decent precip. While anything can happen 6 days out, silly to mail it end.

Are you talking about all of NE or SNE?

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The EC ensembles are still relatively wet. GGEM ensembles are nice too and the 6z gives some decent precip. While anything can happen 6 days out, silly to mail it end.

Some people will never learn. This is actually about where we typically see all our snowstorms at this point. Folks should be mailing it in if SNE was getting crushed now..because it would end up in NNE

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Well the euro ensembles still aren't bad. I would rather a whiff be on the table than a Rainer.

Not me. Keep the storms coming. Eventually we'll hit pay dirt.

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6 days out guys, really anything can happen. Silly to send it in.

Well it will be Sat nite and Sunday so really 4.5-5 days..but how many times have we seen this over the years... Tomorrow's 12z runs will bring the goods

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6 days out guys, really anything can happen. Silly to send it in.

by wed should be clear , we told everyone ... Some people never learn, we keep trying but that's how it goes.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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A couple notes from the 0z suite that I saw during my shift.

 

1. Ridging in the west was definitely dampened this run. Game ender? Absolutely not. 

 

2. That high in the Great Lakes was noticeably stronger versus previous runs (Euro ENS in particular).

 

3. Euro ENS members are still literally all over the place. By Sunday morning, members range from Harrisburg, PA to 250 miles east of Hatteras. 

 

Writing this thing off 120 hours out is just silly. Give it time.

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yes I totally agree I posted that last night's trend was not our friend but there was too much time left in the game. The 6Z GFS still gives us a decent swath of precipitation in the northern stream even with a disjointed low structure. Because the overall pattern has not evolved into a more classic favorable winter set up ,I can understand the cynicism and doubting because a lot has to go right when we don't have good true textbook blocking and a nice supply of arctic air leading to potential boundary layer issues if the storm is not in the correct positionwith the appropriate amount of strength to dynamically cool things

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Anyway, looking at the individual EURO ens, a decent cluster(Maybe 15 of the 50 lows) run inland over NJ and then up through SNE onto the maine coastline, and as a result, bring all rain for NYCmetro/SNE with snows further inland. The rest of the members are mainly west of or close to the mean, with maybe 12 of them east of the mean. Pretty big difference there vs the op, not sure which one to believe. Leaning towards ens guidance as we've seen this happen before with op runs losing an idea only to bring it back inside 72-96 hours, but at the same time, there is a distinct trend on op guidance towards a weaker ridge. We'll see...

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Well it will be Sat nite and Sunday so really 4.5-5 days..but how many times have we seen this over the years... Tomorrow's 12z runs will bring the goods

It's slow. 6 says almost

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6 days out guys, really anything can happen. Silly to send it in.

All I had to see was last night's runs to know we were going to get these storm cancel post, Why anyone this far out would take any op run as gospel and cancel a storm is beyond me

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Well, I guess if there's no real storm that gets formed, the notion of an inevitable north trend doesn't need to be discussed.  EC/GFS op runs all duds.  EC ens still show a weaker system, but it's nudged southeast.  There's always s the GGEM which still shows a weaker storm but is now tracking it just outside the benchmark

 

It was fun watching this for a run or two.  Probably time to focus on the possibility of Christmas instead of this.

 

Post like this are just ludicrous at this timeframe.It's still 5-6 days out.  :facepalm:

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Taken literally the euro slides the hp east flooding much of the region with mid and low level warmth. If we could get a big wrapped up system we have a better chance IMHO instead of what's modeled.

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12z GFS advertises a weak system passing SE of BM with advisory type snows for most.  Marginal in southern areas.

It actually looks like a pretty wide precip shield.

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12z GFS advertises a weak system passing SE of BM with advisory type snows for most.  Marginal in southern areas.

I don't think anyone south of the pike is seeing advisory type snows on the GFS, BL is like mid 30s inland to lower 40s coastline.

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