dendrite Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Snow map from another forum and said to be the 12z Euro Ensembles, but I have no idea because there's no title or markings on it. Congrat's FVE though if it is, lol. Untitled.jpg That's not right. That's including another event or something. FVE has like 0.10" QPF from this event on this run of the EPS mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 That's not right. That's including another event or something. FVE has like 0.10" QPF from this event on this run of the EPS mean. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Matters none. Algorithms FTL. This. I have come to accept that the snow maps are basically useless Step 3 in the I am a recovering weenie process... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Matters none. Algorithms FTL. Yeah, I figured. Just looking at the ensembles, thats a good hit for this area. Not that it means much, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 The Euro ens snow map illustrates my thoughts perfectly. Little or nothing se of Bos, a mess nw of city, congrats Dendrite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 That's not right. That's including another event or something. FVE has like 0.10" QPF from this event on this run of the EPS mean. I figured it out... it looked like a wxbell map so I found it and it is a "cummulative" snow out at day 7. So that includes anything that falls up to that point, like the upslope after this mid-week mess, which is why it is highlighting the NW flow region in VT/NE/ME in that map. But it also includes that storm snow. The ensembles aren't all that snowy for whatever reason...they have good precip in SNE but aren't buying the snow, which is weird because wxbell seems to use just a "if any part of the column is below freezing count it as snow" type algorithm. I wish I had ENS temps to see where the issue was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Looks about right...congrats Dendrite, MPM. huh?, you might change your mind looking at the next panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 Steve, Im not complaining. I do fine, but the best is further inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 huh?, you might change your mind looking at the next panel Nothing changes in the next panel, or the next lol. But yes, it is useless at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Nothing changes in the next panel, or the next lol. But yes, it is useless at this juncture. huh?Check out @FredCampagna's Tweet: https://twitter.com/FredCampagna/status/544595362669789184?s=09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Steve, Im not complaining. I do fine, but the best is further inland.based on Ens,no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Shocker--I'm not sold. Note that ensemble run scoots it pretty much east from that point off southern NJ. Not sure what the precip shield is looking like with this, but I'd feel better with the south of the pike areas BASED ON THIS DEPICTION. 31.1/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 huh?Check out @FredCampagna's Tweet: https://twitter.com/FredCampagna/status/544595362669789184?s=09 I'm just telling you what happens on that snow map, and that is the max snow it has. I'd post it, but I think you have wxbell, too? I have no opinion on it, I'm just saying that is what it has in the end. It doesn't get any better or any worse in future panels until the Day 9-10 Grinch event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 based on Ens,no Ok, I haven't seen later images. Cool...doesn't make much diff. at this early juncture, as you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 I'm just telling you what happens on that snow map, and that is the max snow it has. I'd post it, but I think you have wxbell, too? I have no opinion on it, I'm just saying that is what it has in the end. It doesn't get any better or any worse in future panels until the Day 9-10 Grinch event. I wish that sw would just evaporate...ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 based on Ens,no But it also includes that storm snow. The ensembles aren't all that snowy for whatever reason...they have good precip in SNE but aren't buying the snow, which is weird because wxbell seems to use just a "if any part of the column is below freezing count it as snow" type algorithm. I wish I had ENS temps to see where the issue was. There's definitely a disconnect there as I mentioned earlier Ginxy. The QPF is there and the track is there but the ensemble snow map shows what was posted. Which is why I wanted to see temps because there's a disconnect. I would've assumed the overly ambitious wxbell snow maps would've gone to town over SNE. But instead its PA up through eastern NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I wish that sw would just evaporate...ugh. I'm with ya there if you are talking about the Dec 24 system. That could definitely be ugly everywhere. The day before Xmas. The Euro has like 50F dews into SNE with that one...so we just pray that's wrong as that would be a disaster up here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I will hold off any excitement and/or disappointment pending hyped up tweets such as: #majoreastcoastwinterstorm #breadandmilkaresoldout #braceyourselves or #sayitaintsnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I will hold off any excitement and/or disappointment pending hyped up tweets such as: #majoreastcoastwinterstorm #breadandmilkaresoldout #braceyourselves or #sayitaintsnow Don't hold back, go for it. I don't even follow you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I LL take my chances with a 984 mean just SE of the BM with sub 540 thickness any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I LL take my chances with a 984 mean just SE of the BM with sub 540 thickness any day. Yes, but the rule of realism when it comes to tempering expectations dictates that, at six days out, you take the solution being offered and assure yourself that this is the only scenario which is officially no longer probable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 That's not right. That's including another event or something. FVE has like 0.10" QPF from this event on this run of the EPS mean. My guess is that includes weds up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I LL take my chances with a 984 mean just SE of the BM with sub 540 thickness any day. Agreed. I wasn't trying to say differently, was just telling you what it had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 18z gfs has nothing .. zilch.. some light snow maybe..maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 18z gfs has nothing .. zilch.. some light snow maybe..maybe not.go para or go home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 It has something for NH/ME. Just looks disorganized. FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 go para or go home yes, looks much better than the unpara gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 the differences are comical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 the differences are comicallooks like the Euro Ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 looks like the Euro Ens yeah, I'll take it, plus I will be in west of Halifax, NS, so hoping for a dumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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