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12/20 Pre Grinch Mood Snows


40/70 Benchmark

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00z EPS spit out 0.50" for PWM, so I can't imagine this is going to be worse. I'm fine with higher half of chance PoP at this point.

 

Hard to tell but doing the subtracting and adding of changes of QPF, it seems to be like somewhere in the vicinity of 0.75" for most of SNE up through your area...dropping back to about 0.2-0.3" from here to your northern zones.

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Maybe I will eat these words, but throw the GFS op out. For now, I would start with a blend of all three ensembles which give some measurable to the region. I side with the euro ensemble, but there is room for error this far out so you can role with the other ensembles too. Weighted more towards EC ensemble.

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Maybe I will eat these words, but throw the GFS op out. For now, I would start with a blend of all three ensembles which give some measurable to the region. I side with the euro ensemble, but there is room for error this far out so you can role with the other ensembles too. Weighted more towards EC ensemble.

 

This all seems pretty classic to me. ECMWF and CMC are both riding a more robust system, GFS flat and east. Ensembles all have spread NW, and appreciable QPF into SNE.

 

Can't really hate the look.

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This all seems pretty classic to me. ECMWF and CMC are both riding a more robust system, GFS flat and east. Ensembles all have spread NW, and appreciable QPF into SNE.

 

Can't really hate the look.

 

And still have at least 5 days to go, so us NNE'ers have something to watch too as we can still get some jumping around this far out.

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Believe me I like the look of the day 6 Euro ensembles, my post was in reference to posting the weather Bell images I didn't think that was allowed.

Yeah I usually assume if it's posted elsewhere, it's good to go. Like social media or something. But then again if someone breaks the rules to post it on social media, does that make it ok to re-post on here? That's usually the only way I'd post Euro stuff though is to lift it off some FB/twitter post.

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