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December 20 - 21 Coastal Storm Threat


jm1220

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The PGFS develops the trailing shortwave. It's pretty weak and most of the moisture goes towards SNE but it's 1004mb about 75 miles SE of ACY.

Again, not bad position wise imo, a system to monitor in future runs for any strengthening  and more favorable track changes for the NYC crew.

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WAS THE GFS CORRECT  THIS  TIME?

 

. Let me make an analogy. Lets say I have a Model that says I am gong to life to be 100 years old and die of old age. Lets call it model A.

 

but  Model B says I will die of a heart attack at the age 50. 

IF I die at the age of 50 of a gunshot ... Model B is STILL wrong.

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WAS THE GFS CORRECT  THIS  TIME?

 

. Let me make an analogy. Lets say I have a Model that says I am gong to life to be 100 years old and die of old age. Lets call it model A.

 

but  Model B says I will die of a heart attack at the age 50. 

IF I die at the age of 50 of a gunshot ... Model B is STILL wrong.

 

 

The PAC is sparse in it`s sampling . It`s not like you missed something . Monday at 12z the ensemble cluster at OBX 6 days on the Euro was as tight as you could have asked for .

Once the PAC got sampled better all the models decoupled . It just so happened that the GFS which is always flat got it right

as the upper air pattern went to the model and not the other way around .

 

In the face of a 3 SD above normal PNA we have seen the seen GFS shoot SWs due east .  Let them all buy it in the  upcoming NEG EPO/AO regime and see how they get burned .

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