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December 19-21 Storm Thread


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The 00z Euro Op may be a bit over-amped, but at this range, the Ensembles are probably still playing catch-up to just how deep the storm is really going to be. 00z Euro Ens mean is notably more amped and further west than the 12z Ens as more members come aboard. I think we'll see the Euro Ens trend more towards the Op than the Op trending towards the Ens over the next couple of days.

I'm an idiot.

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Well. The GFS solution is different then it was earlier in the week. But it kept the idea of a weak, disgusting disaster of a storm through all of it's runs. The Euro, as usual, was over amped. Obviously the storm hasnt happened yet. So we wont have a decision on which one performed better for a couple of days. But it looks like its going to be another winter of useless long range model guidance. We were really spoiled in 09/10 when a model (usually the Euro) would grab onto something and it would stick  for the most part.

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Starting to look like a decent wind event for a lot of people. Snow showers don't work well with strong westerly flow and we tend to minimize cold on westerly flow too. Long ways off either way.

I agree that we don't do well with any flow over the mts or snow on the backside, but that looks like a NW flow setup to me.  And strong.  I could see us getting flurries/showers out of that.  I hate the notion of getting a big wind event.

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This is usually the start of the trend for models to start getting gradually wetter and colder. Let's see if this is the start.

You guys seem to have been nailing most systems this fall, so let's hope a new trend for this one begins in our favor!

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Anything from the rest of the run?

trying to give us some coastal love on monday.. of the wet variety. of course it's another medium pressure system so we'll see but we are a rain town so it'll probably happen. 

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