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December 19-21 Storm Thread


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Model can't even get the track right, why would we believe the temperatures? 

 

 

Are any models showing anything good at this point? Do we have time to create one that will show something good before the weekend?

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GFS is actually about where I would expect it at this point.  I don't have enough tape on the para yet to know its biases but from what I have seen the last month it seems slightly better then the old gfs in general but still sadly pathetic compared to the euro.  I am totally fine with the two GFS runs this morning.  Didnt expect anything more at this point. 

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You are wrong. Stop posting. Run is best yet. 

 

If you compare panel 120 on the 12z to the panel 126 6z... that is an accurate statement.  Just because the precipitation field is better does not make my statement incorrect.  The same goes for panel 126/132... however with panel 126 on the 12z... the low is a little closer to the coast... but still weaker by 4 mb.

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Are any models showing anything good at this point? Do we have time to create one that will show something good before the weekend?

I say we just take all the models and change the freezing temperature to 50 degrees then salivate over their snow maps. 

 

PS:  oh wait weatherbell already did that, never-mind. 

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Im in Ocean County, NJ.  Looks like this will be a washout for anyone within 40-50 miles of the coast from NC all the way up through MA which means rain for many people, no?

 

I would politely suggest hanging out in the Philly forum for better info for your specific area.  It doesn't mean rain for most mainly cause it is still days away

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I say we just take all the models and change the freezing temperature to 50 degrees then salivate over their snow maps. 

 

PS:  oh wait weatherbell already did that, never-mind. 

Pretty good consensus for a flat OTS track. I'll take some snow in the air but would like sfc temps below the mid-30s if it's going to be light.  

 

It could trend.. there's plenty of time.  There's a lot of peculiar ignoring of guidance and hugging of gut feelings as well. 

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I would politely suggest hanging out in the Philly forum for better info for your specific area. It doesn't mean rain for most mainly cause it is still days away

This is a very active and good forum so I don't understand why someone who wants to learn should be restricted to one forum. Now if people are asking dumb questions and making negative comments then that is a different story.

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I would politely suggest hanging out in the Philly forum for better info for your specific area.  It doesn't mean rain for most mainly cause it is still days away

I will not hang out in the Philly area.  There is no one to hang out with.  I apreciate your politeness but here on the Jesey shore, temperatures and precipitation type are more similar to your area than they are philly or NY.  I was asking a question, so why are you asking me to leave?

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Pretty good consensus for a flat OTS track. I'll take some snow in the air but would like sfc temps below the mid-30s if it's going to be light.  

 

It could trend.. there's plenty of time.  There's a lot of peculiar ignoring of guidance and hugging of gut feelings as well. 

 

Obviously precip will decide temps. Surface is likely to be marginal but not toasty at onset (assuming there is an onset). We would need the rates to overcome 35* surface temps. Being on the nw side of a miller A is always good. Even with the weaker lp solutions the track is still decent. NW qpf surprises are fairly common. I'm not going to parse anything verbatim right now. 

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Obviously precip will decide temps. Surface is likely to be marginal but not toasty at onset (assuming there is an onset). We would need the rates to overcome 35* surface temps. Being on the nw side of a miller A is always good. Even with the weaker lp solutions the track is still decent. NW qpf surprises are fairly common. I'm not going to parse anything verbatim right now. 

I'd feel a little better about a surprise if the modeled low was not a weak high. 

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This is a very active and good forum so I don't understand why someone who wants to learn should be restricted to one forum. Now if people are asking dumb questions and making negative comments then that is a different story.

 

I will not hang out in the Philly area.  There is no one to hang out with.  I apreciate your politeness but here on the Jesey shore, temperatures and precipitation type are more similar to your area than they are philly or NY.  I was asking a question, so why are you asking me to leave?

 

If you want to learn, you are welcome to read this forum and learn. We've got many knowledgable posters who add valuable insight and analysis whenever there is the threat of any meaningful storms.

 

However, coastal NJ isn't part of this subforum's region. We aren't all that familiar with their climo, which BTW isn't necessarily the same as MD or northern VA. Therefore you can't expect our discussions to cater to that area.

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 given what  there    13KM  GFS  WAS  showing  ...   well  you folks can keep  writing this off   if you want 

 

 

 

and yes   low  level  temps will  be  iffy     in some  areas  but this does occur MOSTLY at NIGHT 

 

 

post-9415-0-17146200-1418748110_thumb.pn

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    Regarding the GFSX showing the rain/snow line too close for comfort, the GFSX has been too warm in the boundary layer on the two most recent east coast storms.

Yeah.  I remember someone saying the snow/rain depiction on tropicaltidbits was certainly wrong and biased warm. 

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 given what  there    13KM  GFS  WAS  showing  ...   well  you folks can keep  writing this off   if you want 

 

 

 

and yes   low  level  temps will  be  iffy     in some  areas  but this does occur MOSTLY at NIGHT 

 

 

attachicon.gif13KMGFS SNOW.png

weren't you attacking the 13km gfs 10 hours ago?  

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Not that this isnt already known but its all about perspective on where you live...If around the I81 corridor Id be pretty excited for a minor-moderate event with the chance of it being even more significant. However, being along I95 DC-Baltimore, Im not that excited for anything than ambient snowfall at THIS point...I would really like to see this trend stronger, but its hard to see a ~1010 low do much for us in a marginal cold situation to begin with

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Not that this isnt already known but its all about perspective on where you live...If around the I81 corridor Id be pretty excited for a minor-moderate event with the chance of it being even more significant. However, being along I95 DC-Baltimore, Im not that excited for anything than ambient snowfall at THIS point...I would really like to see this trend stronger, but its hard to see a ~1010 low do much for us in a marginal cold situation to begin with

 

yeah...without a big pressure gradient, better air mass, confluence further south, we need a deeper low for most of us to get anything significant...I'd like to see an inch...

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2" isn't that high a bar.

if you live on a hill and get precip it's not terrible. these are the lows on the para though. combine with max rates of 0.2" liquid for 6 hours. color me unexcited. 

 

9AbUDmP.png

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If you want to learn, you are welcome to read this forum and learn. We've got many knowledgable posters who add valuable insight and analysis whenever there is the threat of any meaningful storms.

 

However, coastal NJ isn't part of this subforum's region. We aren't all that familiar with their climo, which BTW isn't necessarily the same as MD or northern VA. Therefore you can't expect our discussions to cater to that area.

I aksed a general question about the storm.  If you go back and read, I asked a question that would be relevant for your area as well as mine.

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