EasternUSWX Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 lol... it's in and out in like 6 hours. Maybe 0.1" QPF. Next. It's an improvement, that's what we are looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Taking a peek at the 12z NAM at hr 84 (just to see what it shows in relevance to the other models, not to use as a forecast), the 50/50 low is slowly moving out and there is a 1011 L down by HOU with decent moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 12z GFS refuses to play along Not that I care really, but still kinda sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 WOW the pulls that the gfs has past 72 hrs on sooooo many is just scary... guys if you think this is a MISS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I'm seeing a lot of deleted and hidden posts. As we get closer in, we're gonna start tightening up the ship in this thread. The occasional "witty" or banter remark is ok but if you see your posts constantly hidden or deleted, that should probably be a clue to get it together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 12z PGFS at 96 1014 in SW AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Taking a peek at the 12z NAM at hr 84 (just to see what it shows in relevance to the other models, not to use as a forecast), the 50/50 low is slowly moving out and there is a 1011 L down by HOU with decent moisture using the dgex to extrapolate the NAM has been on board for an event, although a rain event since its actually over amped. Means nothing though since the nam cant get yesterday right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I have the 13km GFS to 102 hrs and you are going to be wrong Looking at panel 78 on the PGFS... I do not think we are going to be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The fact that the GFS doesn't pull it together for this storm isn't the thing that's irking me....it's the fact that other models have trended toward it (with the suppressed look). But I mean, it is only Tuesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 WOW the pulls that the gfs has past 72 hrs on sooooo many is just scary... guys if you think this is a MISS.. 144eps0z.jpg DT, I think MOST people on here know the GFS is garbage, but at the same time people do let emotions get involved a little and I think its fair to say it would be nice to have a little more support for a storm then ONLY the euro enembles. With that said, if I could only have one piece of guidance on my side at this point that is the one I would choose, but honestly it would add confidence if something else was on board, perhaps the UKMET or GGEM or even the garbage GFS... I dont think its just the GFS that is swaying people, at least I hope not. I personally am still thinking an event is possible it not likely, but still would add confidence if something else jumped on board today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 12z GFS 13km much colder .. more snow wetter big snow for shenandoah valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 120 PGFS 1013 just east of HSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I am pretty disappointed with the PGFS at 120 Could you explain in more detail, why you are so disappointed? Would be a lot more helpful to those of us who are trying to figure out what the models are showing. Posts like this, doesn't help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 get out your drizzle boots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 THe PGFS looks rather EUROish Wrapped up, but pushed off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 DT, I think MOST people on here know the GFS is garbage, but at the same time people do let emotions get involved a little and I think its fair to say it would be nice to have a little more support for a storm then ONLY the euro enembles. With that said, if I could only have one piece of guidance on my side at this point that is the one I would choose, but honestly it would add confidence if something else was on board, perhaps the UKMET or GGEM or even the garbage GFS... I dont think its just the GFS that is swaying people, at least I hope not. I personally am still thinking an event is possible it not likely, but still would add confidence if something else jumped on board today. I don't understand why so many folks think operational models can pinpoint a storm a week away. 24 hour shifts with still a few days before a storm should be expected at this point, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Solid hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 114 and 120 are nice for I-95 and West... snow is falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Weaker with the surface low and further east You are wrong. Stop posting. Run is best yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The fact that the GFS doesn't pull it together for this storm isn't the thing that's irking me....it's the fact that other models have trended toward it (with the suppressed look). But I mean, it is only Tuesday... agree for the most part but I think models are struggling and mostly jumping around not really trending at this point. Either way the next few runs will settle it as the differences show up soon. Either the northern jet dives in to phase or not and the stj is left to meander to its south. Perhaps the final details are not resolved tonight because the GFS often takes a few runs to figure it out, but if we see a well developed system coming out of the gulf with the high in place at 60 hours...I think we can figure out where its headed from there in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 .3-.4" qpf looks like for DC this run. Good improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Solid hit. too close for comfort for D.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 114 and 120 are nice for I-95 and West... snow is falling What? Interstate said he was very disappointed in HR 120? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 12z GFS 13km much colder .. more snow wetter big snow for shenandoah valley 0GFS-PARA_MSLPThickQPF_ma_f120.png Looks like rain for a lot of people... no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Pretty cool the surface sucks even at night. Solid hit... let's not degrade our expectations that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Pretty cool the surface sucks even at night. Solid hit... let's not degrade our expectations that much. Model can't even get the track right, why would we believe the temperatures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Pretty cool the surface sucks even at night. Solid hit... let's not degrade our expectations that much. this -- its still a hit, details like surface temps can still be worked out. many here should be thankful that something is still showing a storm this weekend, instead of whining about it being rain/snow or "disappointing" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Thank you stormtracker for cleaning this thread up, a few users make it unreadable at times..........like the look of the Para GFS, especially because I will be in Leesburg this weekend rather than Fredericksburg. Looking like about .4 qpf so a good bit different than its older cousin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Looks like rain for a lot of people... no? Where is a lot of people? Don't see a location for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Looks like rain for a lot of people... no? Uh no... its snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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