Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 6

[bubba hotep]

I'm feeling pretty good about the second half of February.  The first two weeks will have some torchy days with the occasional glancing blows of cold and then the last two weeks will be brutal cold.  Will we get a system at the right time or will it be wasted cold like the first two weeks of January?  I like the way things are evolving across the Pacific and I'm all in with the 2003 analog.  The biggest thing that gives me pause is the crazy negative QBO.  Bring it on!   

[bubba hotep]

Oh look, another cutoff that shears out into the base of the never dying East Coast trough... at least New Mexico looks to cash in again. 

[bubba hotep]

30 with freezing drizzle here in Collin County. Roads seem fine with ice only on cars, garbage cans, etc.

[aggiegeog]

34 with drizzle at my place this morning. Temps across the area are running colder than predicted so watch out for icing though it does not sound like there are major issues out there as of this time.

[Quixotic1]

28 with freezing drizzle here in NW Frisco. 

[Srain]

Reports of a lot of accidents this morning in Sherman due to the freezing drizzle.

[bubba hotep]

Down to 29 up at the house with freezing drizzle. Unfortunately, I was able to make it to downtown Dallas

[DFWWeather]

Looks like the NWS should at least issue a Special Weather Statement. This is going on for far too long to be ignored. It is still below freezing at DFW Airport with reports of freezing drizzle across the area. Another nice forecast bust on the cold just like earlier this week.

[bubba hotep]

I'll take a blend of the 00z Euro EPS control, e50, e46, e32, and e9... desperate times call for maximum

[Wxradar 30623]

Well the temperatures for Dallas Tx are rising a little this week.

[bubba hotep]

What a freaking bore this pattern is!

[1900hurricane]

What a freaking bore this pattern is!

 

No kidding, I kinda hit at that back in post 530. NW flow like this and during this time of the year is super dull, and longer range guidance shows it sticking around for a while. At least the WPac is interesting right now because otherwise I might go insane.

[Srain]

Jeep finally washed and waxed--check

 

Weeds pulled out of the front beds---check

 

First rake of the large Oak tree in the front yard that will be dropping its leaves for the next two months---check

 

Pool cleaned and ready for some extended warm weather--check

 

Koi pond filters cleaned and pond plants prepped for transplanting---check

 

Sunshine---check

 

It was a good day...

[bubba hotep]

No kidding, I kinda hit at that back in post 530. NW flow like this and during this time of the year is super dull, and longer range guidance shows it sticking around for a while. At least the WPac is interesting right now because otherwise I might go insane.

Yeah, it seems like only the bad patterns show in the LR and stick The 1st two weeks of February being a toss for us was the LR lock of the year. Things look to improve past mid month but who knows, that call has been a bust most of the winter.

[bubba hotep]

I wonder if we are going to waste the last two weeks of February like we wasted the first two weeks of January? I'm still feeling good about the last two weeks being colder than normal, so maybe we finally cash in on a properly timed system.  I know lots of seasonal forecasters could save some face with a deep south snow storm or just they can just spin the record Boston snow 

 

[Roy]

Frustrating pattern, and frankly, doubt any of the more optimistic long-range guidance.

[bubba hotep]

Frustrating pattern, and frankly, doubt any of the more optimistic long-range guidance.

Yep, GFS says another 10 days of dry weather with the occasional cool front. It's getting pretty close to the point of no return.

ETA: The CFS 2 is all about a cold end to February and March.... #graspingatstraws

[Wxradar 30623]

Temperatures starting to rise again! what a roller coaster. Could get in the lowers 80s in some places and upper 70s.

 

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[bubba hotep]

12z Euro says, "Don't give up the dream!"

[bubba hotep]

It looks like two glancing blows of cold before the pattern starts to shift and allows a dump straight down the spine of the Rockies.

[Srain]

The 12Z GFS is suggesting a fairly strong shot of colder air arriving next Tuesday night. Temperatures in the 30's for lows with shortwave pushing SE out of the Southern Rockies may spell a round of wintry mischief across the Panhandle, West Texas and possibly into the Hill Country if the GFS is correct. We will see.

 

[vwgrrc]

12z Euro says, "Don't give up the dream!"

Still there today?

[Portastorm]

12z CMC and GFS both showing snow into central Texas next week.  Let's hope that's a trend which continues!

[Portastorm]

Gotta love the overnight model trend from the Euro and CMC. Also like how that 6z GFS Op run came out ... and just a week away.

[Srain]

The WPC Extended Range Discussion does mention the potential issues with the sensible weather pattern possible for early to mid next week across our Region. It is still a week out, but the overnight Euro and GFS are suggesting a disturbance near the Baja begins to slide NE after a strong shot of 'colder air' arrives with over running moisture and the approach of an shortwave moving SE from the Southern Rockies. While the 'coldest' air should be off to our E, the models are beginning to suggest some wintry mischief could be possible mid next week and may be worth monitoring after our extended quiet weather pattern and mild temperatures.

 

 

 

 

[bubba hotep]

Gotta love the overnight model trend from the Euro and CMC. Also like how that 6z GFS Op run came out ... and just a week away.

 

It is certainly intriguing but the models are really struggling right now and there seems to a lot of run-to-run variability.  However, the 06z GFS and 00z CMC both get winter weather into Texas but they do it in different ways and the 00z Euro is another version of the story.  The one thing that seems pretty locked in is a westward expansion of the colder air over the next couple of weeks.  I'll gladly take that and hope that we can get a system to workout for us while the colder air is in place.  Southwest / Baja cutoff lows are always tricky for the models and how and when that energy interacts with the northern stream S/W is pretty much a guess at this point.  Maybe the 12z runs will start to lock in on something   

[aggiegeog]

It is certainly intriguing but the models are really struggling right now and there seems to a lot of run-to-run variability.  However, the 06z GFS and 00z CMC both get winter weather into Texas but they do it in different ways and the 00z Euro is another version of the story.  The one thing that seems pretty locked in is a westward expansion of the colder air over the next couple of weeks.  I'll gladly take that and hope that we can get a system to workout for us while the colder air is in place.  Southwest / Baja cutoff lows are always tricky for the models and how and when that energy interacts with the northern stream S/W is pretty much a guess at this point.  Maybe the 12z runs will start to lock in on something   

If nothing else we finally have something interesting to watch. We have all been expecting the pattern to retrograde west and it looks like that will begin next week. Without the pattern retrogression we have nothing but dry warmth so this is a good trend. I am not sure I am ready to go all in and forecast a significant winter storm just yet, but the potential is there for the second half of Feb. 

[Srain]

The 12Z GFS looks rather cold with a 1048+mb Arctic High dropping S into the Plains. The upper ridge that has been anchored across the West does retrograde and a stout PNA Ridge builds into Eastern Alaska/Western Canada. Tropical forcing from the Tropical Depression Higos may be creating some modeling issues, but the trends do favor a return to a colder regime across the Inter Mountain West and the Plains. The fly in the ointment will be the evolution of the Baja disturbance and just how quickly it moves E as the cold air arrives. 

 

[bubba hotep]

Pretty big swing from 06z to 12z on the GFS with 12z trending towards the 00z Euro with the Baja low, it actually even kicks it out a tad faster.  That limits the winter weather potential across Texas but things will obviously change b/w now and next week. 

[DFWWeather]

The 12Z GFS looks rather cold with a 1048+mb Arctic High dropping S into the Plains. The upper ridge that has been anchored across the West does retrograde and a stout PNA Ridge builds into Eastern Alaska/Western Canada. Tropical forcing from the Tropical Depression Higos may be creating some modeling issues, but the trends do favor a return to a colder regime across the Inter Mountain West and the Plains. The fly in the ointment will be the evolution of the Baja disturbance and just how quickly it moves E as the cold air arrives. 

 

A -13.9°C at DFW, per today's 12z GFS, for next Wednesday would be some serious cold for so late in the month of February. That would push surface temps well down in the teens with highs probably not getting out of the 20s (of course all dependent on cloud cover). Maybe winter is back? I'm taking this very cautiously.

 

Coincidentally, tomorrow marks the 115 anniversary of our coldest ever recorded temperature of -8°F set in 1899 in one of the worst Arctic air outbreaks in United States history (that we know about).