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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

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Let's see if our streak of rain within 48 hours of a snowfall continues this winter... Looks like it might at this point. Once again the heaviest snow went north of us last night. Only about 1.5" IMBY. Lake effect seems to picking now surprisingly. Have a had a couple of decent bursts at home.

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19 hours ago, NEOH said:

Let's see if our streak of rain within 48 hours of a snowfall continues this winter... Looks like it might at this point. Once again the heaviest snow went north of us last night. Only about 1.5" IMBY. Lake effect seems to picking now surprisingly. Have a had a couple of decent bursts at home.

We may set a record for fastest rain after accumulating snow tomorrow morning lol.  Not really sure what to expect. Nam is trending north with the snow.  Could be a few inches or nothing. 

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48 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

We may set a record for fastest rain after accumulating snow tomorrow morning lol.  Not really sure what to expect. Nam is trending north with the snow.  Could be a few inches or nothing. 

Yeah... the theme of this awful winter continues. Not sure how much snow we will see... I think 2" is a safe bet. But we've been burned many times underestimating WAA. 

It got down to 3 imby this morning. I wasn't expecting temps that cold. CLE only got down to 12 last night. We are consistently 5-10 degrees colder with overnight lows than CLE.  

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This should be a half decent thump of snow tomorrow morning (thinking 2-3" for Cleveland and increasing quickly to the south) as it keeps trending north/beefier...but as you guys brought up, it warms up and rains by tomorrow afternoon.  Hopefully it's a scenic wet snow when it comes down at least. 

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12 hours ago, OHweather said:

This should be a half decent thump of snow tomorrow morning (thinking 2-3" for Cleveland and increasing quickly to the south) as it keeps trending north/beefier...but as you guys brought up, it warms up and rains by tomorrow afternoon.  Hopefully it's a scenic wet snow when it comes down at least. 

Snowing light to moderately at times. Looks like the precip shield is taking a hard right turn and drying up quickly to the west. An inch might do it here. 

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3 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Snowing light to moderately at times. Looks like the precip shield is taking a hard right turn and drying up quickly to the west. An inch might do it here. 

Yeah, the northern cutoff ended up being a bit abrupt.  CLE reported a 1"/hr rate in the 7-8am hour but the radar has been more paltry for Lake/Geauga on east.  Not a great northeast OH winter... 

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19 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Yeah, the northern cutoff ended up being a bit abrupt.  CLE reported a 1"/hr rate in the 7-8am hour but the radar has been more paltry for Lake/Geauga on east.  Not a great northeast OH winter... 

Once of the worst in recent memory. This will probably be the lowest snowfall I've received since moving out to South Russell 6 years ago. I've moved on to Spring. Hoping the weather breaks mid-March with warm and dry weather. 

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Just now, NEOH said:

Once of the worst in recent memory. This will probably be the lowest snowfall I've received since moving out to South Russell 6 years ago. I've moved on to Spring. Hoping the weather breaks mid-March with warm and dry weather. 

Agreed, definitely ready for warmer outdoor weather.  

How much do you think fell?  I'm out of town. 

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Just now, dta1984 said:

Agreed, definitely ready for warmer outdoor weather.  

How much do you think fell?  I'm out of town. 

Less than an inch so far. The precip is just falling apart so we probably won't exceed an inch.

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Just now, NEOH said:

Less than an inch so far. The precip is just falling apart so we probably won't exceed an inch.

Bummer.  Be lucky to cross 50" at this point.  Though there always seems to be a decent March storm or two. 

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On 2/20/2019 at 8:51 AM, dta1984 said:

Bummer.  Be lucky to cross 50" at this point.  Though there always seems to be a decent March storm or two. 

Reading through some of the recent "long range" forecasts it sounds like we have a couple of normal/cool shots coming then an abrupt shift to Spring in mid-March. 

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On 2/20/2019 at 8:45 AM, NEOH said:

Once of the worst in recent memory. This will probably be the lowest snowfall I've received since moving out to South Russell 6 years ago. I've moved on to Spring. Hoping the weather breaks mid-March with warm and dry weather. 

This winter goes to show how much NE OH's snowfall climo depends on frequent light to moderate snows with an occasional prolonged lake effect/enhanced event.  You guys pulled off your biggest synoptic storm since the 2010-11 winter, and are still way below normal.  So different here on the east coast where some areas (especially NYC to BOS still) remain pretty far in the hole, but could get a chunk of that back with one storm.  NE OH has a hard time making up ground without a rare big storm (either synoptic or LES) if they go a few weeks with little snow, which has happened several times this winter. 

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Looks like CLE will finish Feb in the +2 temp range for the month. Current snowfall departure is -22" for the season. And look what appeared on last nights euro run... just need it to hold another 4 days :lol:.

Picture1.png

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Lol I wish!   There's no saving this winter, but one last big dog would be nice.  

Had a half inch or so the past few mornings that melt quickly.  A few inches on the ground in Chardon. 

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The location of the Polar Vortex to the north will determine the outcome of this storm...if it's far enough north this storm will strengthen along the tight temp gradient and could drop a decent swath of snow across central or northern OH, though if the PV is even a little farther south it ends up quite a bit less amped.  Sensitive situation.  Northern OH in all likelihood won't rain, but how much QPF is a question.  Central/southern OH should be a bit safer for at least some precip, but would likely mix or rain with the stronger solution.  Almost all guidance including most Euro ensemble members are less amped than the op Euro right now. 

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32 minutes ago, OHweather said:

The location of the Polar Vortex to the north will determine the outcome of this storm...if it's far enough north this storm will strengthen along the tight temp gradient and could drop a decent swath of snow across central or northern OH, though if the PV is even a little farther south it ends up quite a bit less amped.  Sensitive situation.  Northern OH in all likelihood won't rain, but how much QPF is a question.  Central/southern OH should be a bit safer for at least some precip, but would likely mix or rain with the stronger solution.  Almost all guidance including most Euro ensemble members are less amped than the op Euro right now. 

Thanks for dropping in. Yeah, too bad the euro op is an outlier. The other models show more of a weak low riding the front off to the NE.  Given the way this winter has gone whatever solution is least favorable for snow in Ohio is what will likely verify. 

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21 hours ago, LakeEffectOH said:

Sad...Next winter HAS to be better...:facepalm:Pitiful_3.thumb.JPG.a770850a46fba9f9479ea0bde1210417.JPG

 

 

It has been an awful winter to say the least. Back to back ratters. And here I thought last year was bad! You would think that CLE would have to hit climo at some point. No where to go but up. One thing we can do without is a cold fall that rapidly cools the lake. November put a dagger in our LES hopes. 

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1 hour ago, NEOH said:

It has been an awful winter to say the least. Back to back ratters. And here I thought last year was bad! You would think that CLE would have to hit climo at some point. No where to go but up. One thing we can do without is a cold fall that rapidly cools the lake. November put a dagger in our LES hopes. 

Plus the negative pacific north american pattern (-PNA )set up a mostly southwesterly flow that 1) Kept much of the snow well to the north and west of us (Congrats Minneapolis-St Paul) and shunted what little LES to our north an east.  Even when temperatures are really cold, wind was out of the WSW.  -PNA patterns often cause shear and sweep high pressure too fast for any decent LES, even in WNY.

Good example of a -PNA pattern.  From http://www.wisconsinwx.com

1034722546_-PNAPattern.png.eef2571ba2a80bfeb2466197021de679.png

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1 hour ago, NEOH said:

It has been an awful winter to say the least. Back to back ratters. And here I thought last year was bad! You would think that CLE would have to hit climo at some point. No where to go but up. One thing we can do without is a cold fall that rapidly cools the lake. November put a dagger in our LES hopes. 

Actually last winter was decent..or average.  A "39 March definitely saved that winter.  I had 109" which lines up with the data from CLE https://www.weather.gov/cle/Climate_Snowfall_2017-18

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1 hour ago, dta1984 said:

Actually last winter was decent..or average.  A "39 March definitely saved that winter.  I had 109" which lines up with the data from CLE https://www.weather.gov/cle/Climate_Snowfall_2017-18

Oh yeah, definitely not bad as this year out this way (would have been bad without March). I was going by CLE's snowfall totals. CLE hasn't had an average or above year since 2013/2014. That's a pretty long stretch of below normal snowfall. 

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1 hour ago, LakeEffectOH said:

Plus the negative pacific north american pattern (-PNA )set up a mostly southwesterly flow that 1) Kept much of the snow well to the north and west of us (Congrats Minneapolis-St Paul) and shunted what little LES to our north an east.  Even when temperatures are really cold, wind was out of the WSW.  -PNA patterns often cause shear and sweep high pressure too fast for any decent LES, even in WNY.

Good example of a -PNA pattern.  From http://www.wisconsinwx.com

 

Just a bad pattern and some back luck for northeast ohio. WNY and PA have done pretty well. Erie has had average snowfall for the year, and BUF has a +32" snowfall departure. 

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Looks like a lake effect band or enhancement has developed. Surprised to see a wwa for 3-5".  Just light snow here, but the band looks to be slowly sinking south.  

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31 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

3" of very fluffy snow overnight.  

Well that was a nice surprise. Must have been very intense as it didn't look like is lasted long on radar. 

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3 hours ago, dta1984 said:

3" of very fluffy snow overnight.  

I had 3" of fluff too.

NWS CLE was forecasting their usual less than one inch accumulation.  I hate that term less than one inch.  The old little or no accumulation sounded better.  When "less than one inch" or "less than 1/2 inch" is used, to me that has a rubbing your nose in it feel.

End of rant...

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21 hours ago, NEOH said:

Just a bad pattern and some back luck for northeast ohio. WNY and PA have done pretty well. Erie has had average snowfall for the year, and BUF has a +32" snowfall departure. 

I checked BUF and was surprised to see they already have 113" as of yesterday.  Must've been asleep, :). 

-PNA pattern still messes things up as the beloved SE Ridge tilts the flow more ENE sending the LES away from us and to NWPA/WNY.  Because of the -PNA's persistence, what few lake effect events we've had this year are brief, in and out events before the flow returns to the ENE.  Eventually the SE Ridge is amplified by the next Cutter spiking our temps for 12-36 hours with a lot of rain to melt it all away.  During Feb., the amped SE Ridge decided to camp out for much of the month.

Also, a -PNA pattern sweeps high pressure into the area as we are in an upper level pattern dominated by flat ridging (SE Ridge), even when it is really cold, thus drying the air at all levels.  During most winters, we get in at least a few upper level trough patterns that last several days and rotate little short waves once every 18-36 hours depositing a good bit of LES over much NE Ohio over the duration of said upper level trough.

You can see the 500mb height anomalies for 2/3-3/4 and 12/5/18-3/4/19.  The 2/3-3/4 heights are pretty telling.1739960494_2-19H500Anomaly.JPG.01875755394a1cf5802be2ac5da52ad4.JPG1531352578_Winter18-19H500Anomaly.JPG.4585a6ed90cd11dabf9590231c6c5c19.JPG

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1 hour ago, LakeEffectOH said:

Well, CLE broke the 30" mark for the season...

 

I was kind of hoping CLE would break into the top ten least snowiest. Hard to say but CLE will probably finish in the 35" range I'd imagine. Here's a look at the past few years snowfall at CLE - 

2017/2018 - 53.1"

2016/2017 - 37.3"

2015/2016 - 32.8"

2014/2015  - 67.1" (almost normal)

2013/2014 - 86.1" (the last time CLE was above normal)

Obviously we've had much more snow out here in the snowbelt... but 5 straight seasons of below normal snowfall at CLE is a bad stretch. 

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