Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

[WHEATCENT]

prob will change as the models do but both the canadian and Euro have us dropping from near 50 to  0 in like 6-12 hours 22nd/23rd LOL

[dta1984]

Right at 2" here overnight and this morning.   Nice to get an overachiever after the slow start to winter.  

[OHweather]

Most models had light QPF last night and soundings suggested some convective snow showers with the trough passage, but for some reason it wasn't forecast particularly well. Close to an inch here, and the snow showers last evening were decent. It seems like a rain to wrap around snow/wind/cold situation and the end of the week...just something to get a good plowable snow in the whole area would be nice. 

[NEOH]

6 hours ago, OHweather said:

Most models had light QPF last night and soundings suggested some convective snow showers with the trough passage, but for some reason it wasn't forecast particularly well. Close to an inch here, and the snow showers last evening were decent. It seems like a rain to wrap around snow/wind/cold situation and the end of the week...just something to get a good plowable snow in the whole area would be nice. 

Well the worries of a late phase are gone . Just a WAG but a track from PIT to ROC wouldn’t surprise me… less amped than was is currently shown.

[WHEATCENT]

sweet gfs run tonight

[WHEATCENT]

well model trends no so good. congrats michigan and indiana  typical 40s and rain then 10 degrees and no snow

[NEOH]

1 hour ago, WHEATCENT said:

well model trends no so good. congrats michigan and indiana  typical 40s and rain then 10 degrees and no snow

Typical model windshield wiper effect this far out. Didn't the 00z GFS you posted have 15"+ across Northern Ohio ?  We always ride a fine line in OH with storms so this is no different. The lake enhanced snow on the backside should be great regardless. 

[WHEATCENT]

i was a bit negative this morning  my bad. shouldn't get worked up over the models. been a bad week

[NEOH]

Will there be full sampling today? Pretty much worst case scenario currently on the models. -- low cuts well west, winds behind the storm stay WSW'erly so any lake effect/enhanced snow would be along the immediate lakeshore up to WNY. Fits seasonal trends I guess  . 

[dta1984]

3 hours ago, NEOH said:

Will there be full sampling today? Pretty much worst case scenario currently on the models. -- low cuts well west, winds behind the storm stay WSW'erly so any lake effect/enhanced snow would be along the immediate lakeshore up to WNY. Fits seasonal trends I guess  . 

Lol let's hope not. 

Seems 12z runs bringing things a bit back east.   Let's hope the trend continues with more sampling.  

Going to be windy, that's for sure!

[NEOH]

15 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Lol let's hope not. 

Seems 12z runs bringing things a bit back east.   Let's hope the trend continues with more sampling.  

Going to be windy, that's for sure!

The CMC was a small step in the right direction. A tightly wound low due North would not be good. We need the low to move more easterly to bring the winds around to a more favorable direction. 

 

[OHweather]

I'm setting my local expectations to rain changing to a couple-few inches of wrap-around snow, with 50-60mph wind gusts and a dramatic temperature drop. I feel like that's a safe floor and is still quite a storm, though with fairly modest snow amounts. There's some potential it trends a bit less wrapped-up and east which could up the snowfall some, but given current depictions I would keep snowfall expectations somewhat in check unless we start seeing a solid east trend. My guess is the lake effect quickly becomes a southwest NY thing, as with a very deep low just to our NNE I feel winds would quickly go rather southwesterly as it pulls away. 

[NEOH]

38 minutes ago, OHweather said:

I'm setting my local expectations to rain changing to a couple-few inches of wrap-around snow, with 50-60mph wind gusts and a dramatic temperature drop. I feel like that's a safe floor and is still quite a storm, though with fairly modest snow amounts. There's some potential it trends a bit less wrapped-up and east which could up the snowfall some, but given current depictions I would keep snowfall expectations somewhat in check unless we start seeing a solid east trend. My guess is the lake effect quickly becomes a southwest NY thing, as with a very deep low just to our NNE I feel winds would quickly go rather southwesterly as it pulls away. 

Hey, I was hoping for better news from you !  What a LES season for WNY... really couldn't draw it up and better for that area this year. Its going to be a little frustrating when we will finally get a favorable set-up and a NW wind direction when the lake has ice. 

[Floydbuster]

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
403 PM EST Mon Dec 19 2022

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-202115-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-
Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-
Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
403 PM EST Mon Dec 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Active weather is expected Friday through the weekend. Widespread
cold temperatures and strong winds are expected, with wind chills
below zero likely. Accumulating snow is also possible. Stay tuned to
the latest forecast as this wintry situation unfolds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

 

 

 

Cleveland NWS doesn't seem enthusiastic about accumulated snowfall.

[vpbob21]

11 hours ago, OHweather said:

I'm setting my local expectations to rain changing to a couple-few inches of wrap-around snow, with 50-60mph wind gusts and a dramatic temperature drop. I feel like that's a safe floor and is still quite a storm, though with fairly modest snow amounts. There's some potential it trends a bit less wrapped-up and east which could up the snowfall some, but given current depictions I would keep snowfall expectations somewhat in check unless we start seeing a solid east trend. My guess is the lake effect quickly becomes a southwest NY thing, as with a very deep low just to our NNE I feel winds would quickly go rather southwesterly as it pulls away. 

I have to laugh a bit when I read the main storm thread and watch posters going apoplectic over every 20 mile shift in the models.  The important thing is that this system is going to be, unless things change dramatically, an absolute monster producing an enormous footprint over the Lakes and northern Ohio Valley.  This is a setup where the oft used sentence from the NHC applies - "do not focus on the actual path of the storm, as effects will be felt far away from the center".  It will probably not matter much whether we get 3 inches or 15 as the winds (which may well be underforecast) will be lifting a tremendous amount of snow.

This afternoon's LOT discussion said it best.  It is for the Chicago CWA but could apply anywhere in the Lakes:

It is also worth stressing that the amount of snow that falls is
a secondary or tertiary concern among the hazards. The expected
temperatures will leave this snow extremely susceptible to blowing
around and even if only a couple inches of snow falls, a blizzard
would still be likely given the nature of the snow and magnitude
of the strong winds.

I would expect a blizzard warning to be needed at least over the northern couple rows of counties (where the combination of wind and snow looks to be most severe) and possibly for the entire CWA.  I hope you guys at CLE continue to hit it hard.  This is looking like a truly life threatening storm.

 

 

 

[OHweather]

1 hour ago, vpbob21 said:

I have to laugh a bit when I read the main storm thread and watch posters going apoplectic over every 20 mile shift in the models.  The important thing is that this system is going to be, unless things change dramatically, an absolute monster producing an enormous footprint over the Lakes and northern Ohio Valley.  This is a setup where the oft used sentence from the NHC applies - "do not focus on the actual path of the storm, as effects will be felt far away from the center".  It will probably not matter much whether we get 3 inches or 15 as the winds (which may well be underforecast) will be lifting a tremendous amount of snow.

This afternoon's LOT discussion said it best.  It is for the Chicago CWA but could apply anywhere in the Lakes:

It is also worth stressing that the amount of snow that falls is
a secondary or tertiary concern among the hazards. The expected
temperatures will leave this snow extremely susceptible to blowing
around and even if only a couple inches of snow falls, a blizzard
would still be likely given the nature of the snow and magnitude
of the strong winds.

I would expect a blizzard warning to be needed at least over the northern couple rows of counties (where the combination of wind and snow looks to be most severe) and possibly for the entire CWA.  I hope you guys at CLE continue to hit it hard.  This is looking like a truly life threatening storm.

 

 

 

Yeah, I agree with your overall sentiments and concerns...though, still time for trends which can impact the overall severity of the storm in our area (and everyone else's). The overall evolution is pretty locked in, wholesale changes are not coming and this will be a significant event for a very large area. The very cold temperatures and strong, possibly damaging winds are locked in and any amount of snow will be a problem given those two factors. Now, I do think snow amount matters...I think there's still ceiling for a 4-8/6-10" type snow event in northern Ohio. It's probably less than likely, I feel like 3-6" is more likely, but there will be a lot of forcing and some embedded heavier bands of snow on the west/southwest side of this low pressure as it dramatically deepens Thursday night through Friday night and many models continue to flirt with that impacting northern Ohio which is how those higher amounts could come into play. Amounts will gradually drop off to the south, but it seems like the whole state gets at least a couple inches. However, while I agree that 2" of snow will be made much worse by the cold and wind, 6"+ is just that much more to blow around and makes it substantially worse. 

My "baseline expectations" remain similar to above...by baseline, I have relatively high confidence that things will be AT LEAST this bad:

-A couple to a few inches of snow seems like a likely low end. Perhaps a brief burst of accumulation right behind the Arctic front early in the day Friday. Likely a dry slot behind the front, then wrap-around snow returning later Friday into Friday night, transitioning to SW flow lake effect on Saturday. 

-50 to 60 mph wind gusts seem quite likely, and they may be stronger. Strongest winds generally Friday afternoon and Friday night as the pressure gradient really cranks, but probably a brief surge to 50+ mph gusts immediately behind the front early Friday given the extreme pressure rise and dramatic temperature drop. 

-Temperatures drop from the upper 30s/lower 40s to the single digits in about 6 hours Friday morning behind the front. Temperatures stay in the single digits or teens all weekend, and may dip below 0 Friday evening, especially in western Ohio. Wind chills of -15 to -25 seem likely Friday afternoon through Saturday night, and there's some potential for -30 or colder Friday afternoon into Friday night if winds are on the higher side and temperatures are at least as cold as expected

This is a notable storm with very difficult to impossible travel Friday through Saturday morning due to a flash freeze, accumulating snow, and substantial blowing and drifting snow to go along with scattered tree/power-line damage and some power-outages from the wind. Northwestern Ohio, due to its openness, and the lakeshore, due to higher gusts, will probably see the most significant issues from the blowing and drifting, though everyone will see significant blowing and drifting of whatever snow falls. In addition, it'll be dangerously cold outside. This is kind of like a "realistic floor", unless wholesale changes occur (unlikely) we can expect it to be at least that bad.

Now, it could be even more significant too. I already mentioned the snow. The subtle trend east on the 0z guidance showed all models depicting 4-8" or so type snow amounts in most of northern Ohio. That's not a slam dunk yet, but is possible. Temperatures may be a bit colder than modeled given the origins of the airmass, though that could be somewhat dependent on getting a good, deep snowpack so is not a given. Winds could also be stronger than the 50-60 MPH I mentioned, especially in western Ohio and then in the northern couple tiers of counties points east. This system checks a lot of boxes for high wind potential...very strong cold air advection, a very tight pressure gradient, an unusually deep low that's still intensifying when we see our strong winds, and also a large tropopause fold accompanying this system. When winds overperform, some or all of these factors are in place. Given the 850mb winds progged to reach at least 65-75 knots somewhere on the backside of the low pressure Friday into Friday night, with some models showing 80+ knots, the other very favorable factors suggest that gusts could be into the 60-70 MPH range, locally stronger where the strongest 850mb winds occur. Will that occur over northern Ohio? Not sure yet, but again many models show gusts of that magnitude here or nearby so it's within the realm of possibility. If some or all of these factors trend more significant, it ups the potential for more widespread power outages along with true, significant blizzard conditions for parts of western and northern Ohio. 

So to sum up, very high confidence in a widespread significant impact from bitter cold, strong winds, and some snow accumulation. Some potential for more extreme, life-threatening impacts if snow or wind trend higher, which some guidance suggests is possible. With the amount of people planning to travel ahead of the holiday, this is a big deal. We have had internal discussions on potential headlines, timing of them, and messaging. Headlines will be done with extensive collaboration with all surrounding offices and WPC...there's already been a concerted effort to help steer the message and headlines. Given the scope of the system and overall confidence in impacts, expect headlines to be issued on the early side of normal. We still have a couple of days to watch trends and see if it's just a widespread high-impact event, or if locally more extreme impacts end up playing out closer to our area. 

My forecast duty for this storm may be minimal...I've been on evening shifts over the weekend and to start this week. The ill-fated LES Warning for Erie County was mine. I start midnight shifts Thursday night...it is possible I stay at the office on Friday, as I may not be able to get back Friday night if I drive all the way home as it looks now. However, I will be on the long term forecast desk so may not get to touch the grids for this storm. That said, it's a team effort with messaging to our partners and social media so I will still be dealing with the storm. 

Overall, an interesting next several days around these parts, first with some more tracking and forecasting and then we see what the storm manages to bring to our area. We look to trend milder towards the New Year, and I think we'll be ready for that to come. 

[WHEATCENT]

gfs consistent with at least giving the lakeshore of lake and ashtabula significant accumulations but don't have much faith in that actually verifying, and it seems without it inch or two  from the main storm now. 

[WHEATCENT]

hahaha if only 

[Floydbuster]

What's the trend for NE Ohio? Less snow? More snow? If those winds are gusting as strong as they say, the wind chills are going to be brutal.

[NEOH]

2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

What's the trend for NE Ohio? Less snow? More snow? If those winds are gusting as strong as they say, the wind chills are going to be brutal.

Ha. Who knows at this point. What a tough storm to forecast. Sounds like the models will have full sampling later today. Hopefully the eastern trends continue. I think the trajectory of the low as it passes by will have a big impact on lake enhancement snowfall behind the low. 

[Floydbuster]

21 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Ha. Who knows at this point. What a tough storm to forecast. Sounds like the models will have full sampling later today. Hopefully the eastern trends continue. I think the trajectory of the low as it passes by will have a big impact on lake enhancement snowfall behind the low. 

This is why I stick to hurricanes. Winter weather is much more confusing and touchy.

[NEOH]

Really have no idea what to expect from this storm. A couple of inches of snow with extremely windy conditions isn't all that interesting. Hoping for a more eastward trajectory as the storm exits to maintain a flow off of the lake for as long as possible before winds turn southwesterly. 

[dta1984]

4 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Really have no idea what to expect from this storm. A couple of inches of snow with extremely windy conditions isn't all that interesting. Hoping for a more eastward trajectory as the storm exits to maintain a flow off of the lake for as long as possible before winds turn southwesterly. 

Same here.  Interested to see when more short range models get into better range. The fv3 looks interesting, but it's only one model.  

[NEOH]

1 hour ago, dta1984 said:

Same here.  Interested to see when more short range models get into better range. The fv3 looks interesting, but it's only one model.  

Euro attempts to throw us a bone. A low east of Lake Ontario is usually a good spot. But everything is elongated from west to east which keeps the winds southwesterly on the backside. Probably very little chance of the orientation changing. 

 

 

[OHweather]

This is not the most exciting storm if you're simply going for big snow amounts/rates (though, rates will briefly rip pre-dawn Friday behind the front). I'm guessing public perception will be super mixed...people who have been hearing about a huge storm for days but stay inside on Friday will be underwhelmed when/if we only get a few inches of snow. But, those who hear we're only getting a few inches of snow and venture out on Friday will probably be caught off guard by how brutal the conditions are. Roads really will not be fun Friday through early Saturday with the flash freeze/quick snow accum early Friday followed by intermittent snow and extensive blowing/drifting snow.

As for my expectations, I still think a 3-6" type snow (more up the eastern lakeshore from LES, but I'm also not optimistic in much of a lake boost into NE Ohio...maybe north of I-90 from Lake County points east gets some more help) with 50-60 MPH wind gusts and brutal wind chills (-20 to -30F seems quite likely Friday through early Saturday) is a lock. I think we all get a quick 1-3"/2-4" burst behind the Arctic front...it won't last long, but the upper dynamics are briefly very supportive early Friday before we dry slot.

The GFS continually deepens the low a bit quicker and slows it down, giving us more wrap-around later Friday into Friday night, and would support probably a 6-10" type snow (the front, plus several more inches of wrap-around). My impression is it's overdone, but it's insistent and given how closed off/deep the trough aloft is, perhaps there's room for the system to intensify and slow down slightly quicker. The Euro is not THAT different than the GFS but deepens the low a bit slower and lifts it northeast slightly quicker, so we get less QPF with the wrap-around. However, the Euro still suggests deep saturation through the low and mid-levels through early Saturday and has mid-level warm air advection/isentropic lift late Friday into Friday night, as the low occludes and warm air aloft starts wrapping back in from the north, so I think the Euro would still bring some wrap-around snow...but, it's much less dramatic than the GFS. 

The GFS solution still casts doubt on the winds. All models suggest we have no problem mixing to about 850mb Friday afternoon into Friday night, and all models suggest at least 50 knots of flow at that level. So, I think 50-60 MPH gusts (lakeshore and NW Ohio more 60, interior NE Ohio more 50) are still likely across the board. The GFS (and the FV3 WRF) have 850mb winds of 60-70 knots in that window, and soundings from the GFS and FV3 suggest widespread 60mph gusts, even inland, with potential for 70+ right against the lake is possible. That's probably the difference between a typical amount of power outages and something more widespread. With how cold it is until early next week, more than isolated power outages could quickly become an issue with homes getting cold and potential damage to infrastructure. A general rule of thumb given the setup being quite favorable for strong winds is that the wind speed in knots at 850mb Friday afternoon through Saturday roughly correlates to surface gust potential in MPH (i.e. 60 knots at 850mb probably supports 60 mph gusts...the lakeshore may do even better). 

Still another day to watch trends. I've largely punted LES potential for most of us but do think there's room for trends with the wrap-around snow and what the peak wind gusts end up being, which still is the difference between an impressive/impactful storm and something more life-threatening. Will the GFS trend weaker/faster, or will other models trend stronger/slower? That's the question... 

[Floydbuster]

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
947 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

OHZ009>011-013-019>023-PAZ003-221100-
/O.CON.KCLE.WS.W.0007.221223T0600Z-221224T1500Z/
Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Geauga-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-
Crawford-
Including the cities of Sandusky, Huron, Lorain, Elyria,
North Ridgeville, Avon Lake, Cleveland, Chardon, South Russell,
Bainbridge, Chesterland, Middlefield, Burton, Norwalk, Willard,
Brunswick, Medina, Wadsworth, Akron, Kent, Aurora, Streetsboro,
Ravenna, Warren, Niles, Meadville, and Titusville
947 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO
10 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Multi-hazard winter storm with a combination of strong
  winds, very cold temperatures, snow, and blowing snow
  expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. Winds
  gusting as high as 60 mph. Wind chills values could be as low
  as 20 below zero.

* WHERE...Erie, Lorain and Huron counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
  conditions could severely impact the Friday morning commute
  and any holiday travel. Strong winds could cause tree damage.
  The cold wind chills as low as 25 below zero could cause
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A window of brief intense snowfall is
  expected with a cold front Thursday night. This front will
  bring a sharp temperature drop over a matter of a few hours,
  where temperatures above freezing will drop to the single
  digits by Friday afternoon. A flash freeze is possible with
  this occurrence. Winds will increase across the area early
  Friday, especially Friday night, and be the main hazard for
  the area with blowing snow also potentially causing hazardous
  travel. Strong winds could cause damage to trees, bring down
  power lines, and blow around unsecured objects. From Friday
  through Sunday, a period of almost 48 hours where temperatures
  remain in the single digits is possible. This combined with
  the strong winds would allow for a long period of wind chills
  well below zero and increase exposure risk and infrastructure
  concerns across the area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

[WHEATCENT]

HRRR quite aggressive with temps afternoon Friday around -5...

 

[Floydbuster]

 

00Z GFS aggressive with snow totals in NE Ohio. Probably overdoing it, but still.

[Floydbuster]

Does anyone have a time estimate for the exact temperature drop throughout Eastern Ohio? I almost want to stand outside to experience it, if indeed it happens within just a few minutes. The GFS shows it around 12-5am Friday morning.

[WHEATCENT]

Nws is seeing 12-15 but uh....well ill hope