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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2


Trent
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Greetings everyone. Haven't posted in some time due to a combination of starting a new job in the Fall working as the lead meteorologist for Mars Inc. (a very sweet job you could say), as well as there not being too much local weather to talk about so far this winter. It finally looks like there is some excitement going around in the sub leading up to this storm. No matter what happens, definitely happy to at least be able to track something again. With that said, 18z Euro looks great for us with over an inch of QPF for downtown CLE, but I am still concerned that we will be just a touch too far west here in Cuyahoga county. Nonetheless, I do think at least Winter Weather Advisories are now needed here based on all the guidance I've seen today. I would argue winter storm warnings may be in order too. But there is time to see what the 0z guidance shows tonight. Would want headlines out by tomorrow afternoon before the snow starts falling. Hoping everyone is able to cash in with this storm. Worried that once we get to February, assuming dynamical models are to be trusted and La Nina continues to dominate, we may torch rest of met winter.

Was surprised by the icy roads last night. Saw a tow truck sliding backwards down a hill on the way back home from the gym. Yikes!

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This is gettin close to being a memorable storm for CLE and CAK on east in Northeast Ohio. Feeing good about the YNG area and better about the Snowbelt. CLE still seems slightly in the outside looking in but the 0z NAM wasn’t a bad start. Will be curious to see the rest of the 0z models! Lake enhancement may add a fair bit east of CLE too. Banding May nuke on the northwest side of the storm, definitely will hit NW PA I think but may edge into NE Ohio, with a sharp cutoff to the west. 

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1 hour ago, amt5626 said:

Greetings everyone. Haven't posted in some time due to a combination of starting a new job in the Fall working as the lead meteorologist for Mars Inc. (a very sweet job you could say), as well as there not being too much local weather to talk about so far this winter. It finally looks like there is some excitement going around in the sub leading up to this storm. No matter what happens, definitely happy to at least be able to track something again. With that said, 18z Euro looks great for us with over an inch of QPF for downtown CLE, but I am still concerned that we will be just a touch too far west here in Cuyahoga county. Nonetheless, I do think at least Winter Weather Advisories are now needed here based on all the guidance I've seen today. I would argue winter storm warnings may be in order too. But there is time to see what the 0z guidance shows tonight. Would want headlines out by tomorrow afternoon before the snow starts falling. Hoping everyone is able to cash in with this storm. Worried that once we get to February, assuming dynamical models are to be trusted and La Nina continues to dominate, we may torch rest of met winter.

Was surprised by the icy roads last night. Saw a tow truck sliding backwards down a hill on the way back home from the gym. Yikes!

Ha, Mars is based in Hackettstown, NJ where I was living the last few years. Small world! Congrats!
 

While a last second nudge east is still possible with a low track east of the spine of the Apps, which causes me to want to lean a little low for the Cuyahoga and Summit County area, advisories at least seem like a fair bet for the eastern half of those counties, and if we see a nudge west warning amounts could get to Cleveland and Akron. Given some potential for less than advisory I can see issuing watches as a compromise, and then decide on nothing vs advisory vs warning tomorrow morning. Am nervous having nothing out when a small west shift brings warning amounts in with snow starting in 24 hours. 
 

Here’s what I’d do 

35151883-2D91-4801-9045-BC81B8800E6C.jpeg.a7a39a08432f3b448e8ceae173d998c7.jpeg

I put W’s in the CLE counties I’d have in a warning and W’s in the counties I’d have in a watch. 
 

Ok j/k I’d have warning where we have it and watch where we have advisory or nothing. I’d be very close to warning on Stark, Portage, Lake and Geauga too. I don’t really qualm with our current storm total snow forecast but precarious situation on the western fringe and having no headline makes me nervous. 
 

Curious to see the rest of the 0z models, expect a band of 1-2” per hour snow on the NW side of it’s a sharp gradient to much lighter amounts. Feel it’s likely the band at least gets into the easternmost tier of NE Ohio counties but if it gets west it would drop warning criteria snow. Feel like anyone east of 77 is in play but again feel best about the PA boarder counties and into PA. Where it pivots, perhaps somewhere near Erie or Buffalo, 18”+ of fairly wet dense snow is likely. 

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Some pretty fun runs last night…the models that were west largely held, and the hi-res stuff that was east came west, though still has the Cleveland and Akron area on the fringe of heavier snow. 12z runs shall be interesting. This is shaping up to be decent in Cleveland and fairly memorable farther east. 
 

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The 6z NAM and RGEM were pretty far west. The hi-res stuff was well east yesterday and came way west. Feel like the 0z hi-res/HREF mean (the last image in my previous post) is a good starting point for the western cutoff (and it could be slightly too far east still IMO), and also max amounts where the heavy band pivots and where lake enhancement occurs. Will be curious to see the 12z run of that (and everything else) 

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12z HREF pretty wet along and east of 77...maybe shave a little off due to low ratios to start, but a good idea IMO. The hi-res stuff is now west closer to the globals and may handle amounts and the cut-off with the very heavy band better. Someone may really get crushed in W PA or SW NY, and that could clip far eastern OH. 6z NAM probably too far west but this is a nice compromise.

861693443_snowfall_024h_pmm_ne.f03600(1).thumb.png.cdc3b751fec3bc0286d1f476ffe6c6b9.png

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17 minutes ago, OHweather said:

12z HREF pretty wet along and east of 77...maybe shave a little off due to low ratios to start, but a good idea IMO. The hi-res stuff is now west closer to the globals and may handle amounts and the cut-off with the very heavy band better. Someone may really get crushed in W PA or SW NY, and that could clip far eastern OH. 6z NAM probably too far west but this is a nice compromise.

861693443_snowfall_024h_pmm_ne.f03600(1).thumb.png.cdc3b751fec3bc0286d1f476ffe6c6b9.png

Love to see the HREF giving 6+ here. Feeling comfortable for a solid 6-8". And too funny that you used to be in HKT! I plan on moving out that way sometime in the spring/summer to start more of a hybrid work environment. Will miss the virtual work and Ohio life some, but always open to new exploring new places.

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6 hours ago, amt5626 said:

Love to see the HREF giving 6+ here. Feeling comfortable for a solid 6-8". And too funny that you used to be in HKT! I plan on moving out that way sometime in the spring/summer to start more of a hybrid work environment. Will miss the virtual work and Ohio life some, but always open to new exploring new places.

HKT itself is a nice, little town. Very wooded and hilly area so if you're into the outdoors there's some stuff to do. Even an ok little ski resort about an hour north of Hackettstown in Vernon, NJ. But, key words here are little town and wooded. If you're looking for more of a social life you may end up closer to Morristown. If you do look for an apartment in Hackettstown yourself feel free to reach out, I know people who lived in or still live in pretty much all the places in Hackettstown. 

Anyways, agree that I like where we're at. Nice little coating down here on all surfaces. Glad Summit and Cuyahoga finally are under warnings as I don't think it'll be even close to not being worth a warning, especially the eastern half of both counties. Could see them needing to add Wayne and Medina too just eyeballing the radar. 

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Radar is looking great! Frankly wouldn't shock me if most areas east of 77 have double digits by dawn with lake enhanced / effect to follow. This has turned into quite a storm. Was telling my dad, normally I'm excited for days before the snow starts. This had to trend so far to get to this point that it hasn't hit me that I will have an easy 6 or 8" by morning and quite possibly 10"+! Those of you in Geauga will get a larger lake contribution than I will. Plenty of snow to go around. 

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Copying over from the other Ohio thread...

Big snow band starting to take shape parts of southern and eastern OH, and will ramp up more over the next few hours as it slowly moves north-northeast

Multiple things contributing...THIS IS CLASSIC...you have weaker stability on the edge of the dry slot which can allow for slantwise convection (which is what typically occurs in mesoscale banded snow). You also have a TROWAL nosing in from the east (trough of warm air aloft), enhancing the mid-level temperature gradient. You already have a nice deform zone and some mid-level fgen, and that means ascent/rising air, which will cool the atmosphere further (and should gradually cause any pockets of mix to go away through the evening). This cooling will also increase the temperature gradient on the edge of the TROWAL, strengthening the fgen further and causing the band to really rip. Definitely some positive feedbacks here. The branch of the warm conveyor belt wrapping cyclonically into the deform zone is adding some deeper moisture to. Parts of eastern Ohio will absolutely rip snow this evening into the overnight. Travel will be nearly impossible, this is a high-end set-up for our region (and this will go into W PA, W NY, and eventually S Ontario too).

The very heaviest may be east of CLE and CAK but this is an outstanding synoptic snowstorm for this region. I feel silly for being timid on the west trend pulling this into CLE until today. Sort of makes up for the last 6 weeks of not snowing at all. 

311756696_COD-GOES-East-regional-eastcoast_09.20220117.001617-overmap-bars.thumb.gif.e7a5496e3c68859f346221e79ffb6bbf.gif

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1 minute ago, OHweather said:

Copying over from the other Ohio thread...

Big snow band starting to take shape parts of southern and eastern OH, and will ramp up more over the next few hours as it slowly moves north-northeast

Multiple things contributing...THIS IS CLASSIC...you have weaker stability on the edge of the dry slot which can allow for slantwise convection (which is what typically occurs in mesoscale banded snow). You also have a TROWAL nosing in from the east (trough of warm air aloft), enhancing the mid-level temperature gradient. You already have a nice deform zone and some mid-level fgen, and that means ascent/rising air, which will cool the atmosphere further (and should gradually cause any pockets of mix to go away through the evening). This cooling will also increase the temperature gradient on the edge of the TROWAL, strengthening the fgen further and causing the band to really rip. Definitely some positive feedbacks here. The branch of the warm conveyor belt wrapping cyclonically into the deform zone is adding some deeper moisture to. Parts of eastern Ohio will absolutely rip snow this evening into the overnight. Travel will be nearly impossible, this is a high-end set-up for our region (and this will go into W PA, W NY, and eventually S Ontario too).

The very heaviest may be east of CLE and CAK but this is an outstanding synoptic snowstorm for this region. I feel silly for being timid on the west trend pulling this into CLE until today. Sort of makes up for the last 6 weeks of not snowing at all. 

311756696_COD-GOES-East-regional-eastcoast_09.20220117.001617-overmap-bars.thumb.gif.e7a5496e3c68859f346221e79ffb6bbf.gif

My totals on lake county have continually risen on rap and hrrr!!

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21 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Copying over from the other Ohio thread...

Big snow band starting to take shape parts of southern and eastern OH, and will ramp up more over the next few hours as it slowly moves north-northeast

Multiple things contributing...THIS IS CLASSIC...you have weaker stability on the edge of the dry slot which can allow for slantwise convection (which is what typically occurs in mesoscale banded snow). You also have a TROWAL nosing in from the east (trough of warm air aloft), enhancing the mid-level temperature gradient. You already have a nice deform zone and some mid-level fgen, and that means ascent/rising air, which will cool the atmosphere further (and should gradually cause any pockets of mix to go away through the evening). This cooling will also increase the temperature gradient on the edge of the TROWAL, strengthening the fgen further and causing the band to really rip. Definitely some positive feedbacks here. The branch of the warm conveyor belt wrapping cyclonically into the deform zone is adding some deeper moisture to. Parts of eastern Ohio will absolutely rip snow this evening into the overnight. Travel will be nearly impossible, this is a high-end set-up for our region (and this will go into W PA, W NY, and eventually S Ontario too).

The very heaviest may be east of CLE and CAK but this is an outstanding synoptic snowstorm for this region. I feel silly for being timid on the west trend pulling this into CLE until today. Sort of makes up for the last 6 weeks of not snowing at all. 

311756696_COD-GOES-East-regional-eastcoast_09.20220117.001617-overmap-bars.thumb.gif.e7a5496e3c68859f346221e79ffb6bbf.gif

Textbook storm with a rapidly deepening low underway. Should see about a 10 mb drop over the next 6-10 hours which is going to make this thing absolutely rip. Hopefully sleet doesn’t impact snowfall totals but it’s a definitely possibility if this thing trends further west

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Already nearing 1.5” here. Did mix with sleet a bit ago but went back to snow pretty quickly as rates ramped back up. There may be a bit of sleet at times the next few hours, but feel pretty good that it won’t significantly hurt totals…but it will keep the ratios below 10:1 tonight. It will be a dense, wet snow. Seems like a fast start with radar and short term models looking good for it to continue. 

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More sleet than anything else between about 9:30 and 11:30 PM...some snow was mixed in but with the sleet it was compacting about as quick as it could accumulate. Back to mainly snow for the last 45 mins or so and coming down now, about 3" perhaps slightly more. 

As of midnight, 4.2" at KCLE, 5.0" at KYNG (they mixed too for a bit), and 7.1" (somehow) at KCAK. All 3 sites reported 1" per hour rates last hour, except for CLE, which reported 2" last hour. It's coming down! 

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28 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Yeah there’s a silly amount of snow out there, eyeballing close to a foot. Not snowing as hard as when I went to bed but it’s still coming down. Wow. 

I measured just over 14” at 6am. Looking at the radar we could push 18-20”.  Awesome storm with the winds picking up.

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