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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2


Trent
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It will snow in March.  Hopefully a warning criteria event or two.  I've been getting a fair amount of thunder and lighting for almost the last two hours.  From what I've gathered, here is the extensive record list from Friday from Ohio and immediately surrounding areas...Wow!

The high temperature at Cleveland Hopkins reached 77 degrees.  This breaks the old daily record of 69 degrees set in 1961.  This also breaks the previous all-time February record high of 74 set on February 26, 2000.  This also ties December 3, 1982 as the highest temperature recorded in meteorological winter (the months of December, January, and February).

The high temperature at Akron-Canton reached 76 degrees.  This breaks the old daily record of 68 degrees set in 1961.  This also breaks the previous all-time February record high of 72 degrees set on February 26, 2000.  This also ties December 3, 1982 as the highest temperature recorded in meteorological winter.

The temperature at Mansfield reached 74 degrees.  This breaks the old daily record of 67 degrees set in 1961.  This also breaks the previous all-time February record high of 71 degrees set on February 26, 2000.  This also breaks the previous warmest temperature record in meteorologist winter of 73 degrees set on December 3, 1982. 

The temperature at Toledo reached 71 degrees.  This breaks the old daily record of 61 set in 2000.  This also ties the previous all-time February record of 71 set on February 11, 1999 and on February 26, 2000.  This also ties the highest temperature recorded in meteorological winter of 71 degrees which has been previously hit four times.

The temperature at Youngstown reached 75 degrees.  This breaks the old daily record of 67 degrees set in 1967.  This also breaks the previous all-time February record of 73 degrees set on February 26, 2000.  This also breaks the previous warmest temperature recorded in meteorological winter of 73 degrees set on February 26, 2000.

The temperature at Erie, PA reached 77 degrees.  This breaks the old daily record of 67 set in 1906.  This also breaks the previous all-time February record of 75 set on February 26, 2000.  This also breaks the previous warmest temperature recorded in meteorological winter of 75 degrees set on December 3, 1982 and on February 26, 2000.

The temperature at New Philadelphia reached 77 degrees.  This breaks the old daily record of 66 degrees set in 1985. 

The temperature at Zainesville reached 76 degrees.  This breaks the old daily record of 70 set in 1961.

The temperature at Columbus reached 78 degrees.  This breaks the old daily record of 72 set in 1961.  This also breaks the previous all-time February record of 75 degrees set on February 26, 2000.  This also breaks the previous warmest temperature recorded in meteorological winter of 76 degrees set on December 3, 1982.

The temperature at Dayton reached 76 degrees.  This breaks the old daily record of 67 degrees last set in 1961.  This also breaks the previous all-time February record of 73 degrees set on February 11, 1999 and February 25, 2000.  This also breaks the previous warmest temperature recorded in meteorological winter of 75 degrees set on January 21, 1906.

The temperature at Cincinnati reached 78 degrees.  This breaks the old daily record of 72 degrees set in 1930.  This also breaks the previous all-time February record of 76 set on February 10, 1932.  This also breaks the previous warmest temperature recorded in meteorological winter of 77 set on January 24, 1943.

The temperature at Parkersburg, WV reached 79 degrees.  This breaks the old daily record of 73 degrees set in 1961.  This also breaks the previous all-time February record of 77 set four times…on February 8, 1900, February 11, 1932, February 25, 2000, and February 26, 2000.  This also ties the previous warmest temperature recorded in meteorological winter of 79 degrees set on December 10, 1971.

The temperature at Huntington, WV reached 80 degrees.  This breaks the old daily record of 73 degrees set in 1930.  This ties the all-time February record of 80 degrees set on February 25, 1930.  This also ties the previous warmest temperature recorded in meteorological winter previously reached 2 times…on December 3, 1982, December 31, 1981, and February 25, 1930. 

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7 hours ago, OHweather said:

It will snow in March.  Hopefully a warning criteria event or two.  I've been getting a fair amount of thunder and lighting for almost the last two hours.  From what I've gathered, here is the extensive record list from Friday from Ohio and immediately surrounding areas...Wow!

In summary, yesterday was the warmest day in Ohio in winter since records were kept.

For comparison, since 1871, there have been 53 Fourth of July's in Cleveland that had highs of 76 and below. Yesterday was 77 degrees at both CLE and BKL!

 

Here's the running 12 month daily temperature departures for CLE. 

12month_temp.png

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Was a little too far south for the lake effect last night...it snowed but was all pretty light.  Ended up with 0.2".

There are two interesting potentials for snow between Wednesday night and Friday morning (after potentially another round of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday)...the first one is lake effect or lake enhanced snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  The GFS and Euro both are interesting looking but in different ways...the GFS drops 850mb temps down to -10 to -12C (with lake temps of around 2C) and has a little shortwave and surface trough drop through in a WNW flow early Thursday morning.  This is more of a pure lake effect look...the model despite marginal lake to 850mb temp differentials has pretty high equilibrium levels and good low-level moisture, along with a pretty well-aligned flow.  I could see how that scenario produced a quick few inches with a band of snow in the snowbelt.  The Euro is completely different and has more of a lake enhanced snow look, as it drops 850mb temps to around -10C as a band of wrap-around snow drops across the lake late Wednesday night into early Thursday with a NW flow.  This scenario could produce several hours of moderate snow, particularly in the moderate terrain, and could produce up to a few inches.  I don't really buy the Euro's scenario with that much wrap-around moisture, but either way I'd expect some accumulating snow Wednesday night into early Thursday, especially in the primary snowbelt.

The next potential is with a clipper Thursday evening followed by some lake effect into Friday.  The GFS is the most robust with this system, and the 12z run has a swath of a few inches of synoptic snow followed by a period of NNW flow lake effect later Thursday night into Friday morning.  The Euro is a little weaker and farther south with the synoptic snow and just grazes Cleveland with maybe an inch or two but would likely still be close enough for a period of lake effect.  The dynamics on the GFS are rather impressive and could support up to half a foot of synoptic snow Thursday evening in a narrow corridor followed by locally a few more inches of lake effect...my one hang up here is the pattern is rather progressive with some upper level confluence over New England trying to limit how much our clipper can amplify...basically we'd need everything to go perfectly with the clipper for something like the GFS shows, and we'll have to watch trends during the early part of the work-week.

Either way, there are two separate snow threats in close proximity after midweek, so hopefully something can work out. 

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Had 0.3" overnight. It was melted by 9:30am. It never stuck to pavement but that didn't stop the roads and sidewalks being coated in salt again!

I'm feeling optimistic for March. It would be nice to at least get a 3" synoptic storm this season. 

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February 2017 highlights for Cleveland:

Average high of over 50!

Average low was above 32!

16 days had a high of 50 or above.

9 days had a high of 60 or above. 

This was essentially the most anomalously warm month on record for Cleveland averaging 3.8 degrees warmer than the previous warmest February. 

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18 hours ago, Jonger said:

Seems that the moment you moved to Ohio, LES has been way down and warmth way up.

Yep. CLE is running close to a 100" snowfall deficit the past 5 years or so. 

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After all of that "fun" this morning a little snow is coming tonight.  It's not a great lake enhanced setup with mediocre ratios and not a really long period of good instability or lift, but we should get 1-3" tonight, especially inland...in terms of lake enhanced events nothing spectacular.

The clipper for tomorrow night is irritating because I'm still impressed with the instability and dynamics and think a band of heavy snow could set up...most models miss us to the south now.  With how robust of a system it is maybe it can come in north like the NAM shows and hit us, but I'd like to see something other than the NAM show that at this point.  There should still be some lake effect through Friday behind the clipper and that could be heavy at times with a very deep layer of instability and moisture, but it'll be a short fetch event so unless we can lock in an upstream lake connection it may be hard to even see advisory criteria snow from the lake effect...and may instead just see more disorganized bursts that drop 2-4" over the course of 18 hours. 

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15 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Yikes, I didn't realize it was that substantial. 

A chunk of that can probably be attributed to bad measuring, but you have 11-12, 12-13, last winter and this winter in there and those were all sub par from a snowfall perspective. 

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CLE sent some reports of sporadic structural damage such as a couple of roofs off of businesses and more significant tree damage but the winds at my house with the line didn't gust past 40...we had stronger winds with some rain in the middle of the night. I saw a few smaller trees snapped in Solon on Bainbridge road, otherwise it was pretty run of the mill with some small to medium sized limbs down in my area. The severe gusts must've been pretty localized. 

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I had 0.8" here. Some 2-3" reports in northern Geauga but otherwise not much. Took too long to get cold enough to stick. 

The les tonight through tomorrow evening could produce a widespread 2-4" in the Cleveland area and secondary Snowbelt and 4-6" in Geauga County. There could be a burst of very heavy snow tomorrow morning with a trough and there could be thundersnow.  There should also be a loosely organized Lake Michigan band tonight that perhaps starts on the west side early and shifts into the east side overnight that may produce some moderate to heavy snow showers...and perhaps one last gasp late tomorrow afternoon and evening as winds shift from NW back towards the west. 

Not a banner event by any stretch but could warrant some advisories given the timing of the burst tomorrow morning and everyone should get something.  With some dry air and a short fetch event totals should stay under control but with a boatload of instability any bands with upstream connections should be heavy at times. 

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CLE finally issued an advisory for Geauga County and the secondary Snowbelt.  2.5" here and still plenty more to go...some spots will hit 8" by noon Friday.  Nice overperformer

As a side note CLE currently has the advisory ending at 6am which will be an hour or two before the white out squall along the surface trough pushes through.  Hopefully they extended it.

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56 minutes ago, featherwx said:

Hoping this thing can shift south just the slightest bit--I'm probably less than a mile south of 1-2"/hour rates right now getting nothing. 

Man Oberlin is in a really tough spot.  You need a perfectly placed NW flow band to lock in to get a big total, hard to do.

CLE upgraded several counties to warnings.  Wish I went higher...I thought the snow tonight would be intense but not quite as organized. 

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Looks like 1.5" here total overnight. Best stuff was around the airport it seems. This should be CLE's largest snowstorm of the season at about 4" depending on what fell after midnight. 

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