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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2


Trent
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When i got back to work (right next to Presque Isle) at 3:30 pm, easily pushing 8" since I left at 9am. This is on top of the 4" or so that fell along the lake last night. I see they finally upgraded the Lakeshore to a Warning. From Presque Isle eastward past Erie up toward North East / south to Colt Station is going to get quite a bit more.

On my way to chase! :) 

 

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Should be another burst of les Saturday night as a cold front moves through. It'll be short lived, but if a band can flare up ahead of the front a corridor could see several inches. Outside of that it'll be a quick burst with the front, maybe 1-2" at most because it pushes through quickly and the air really dries out behind the front Sunday morning. 

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It will be interesting to see what happens tonight. The flow finally is favorable for those of us south of 322 but there is a lot of ice on the lake...      Although it is probably just slushy. Really bad timing on the ice formation. I wonder if a band will set up just east of the ice which looks be from Lorain on west. 

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Despite the ice, conditions become rather optimal ahead of the cold front for a few hours. I think a couple of W to E bands will develop ahead of the trough and those will be the spots that could see over 4"...especially in NW PA.  We will see where the bands develop in NE OH, may again be a little north of most of us.  Elsewhere I still think a quick inch, maybe two with the squall along the front.  Everything should diminish quickly early Sunday morning as dry air and a short fetch take over. 

More snow Tuesday morning, could be a couple inches, then we still have the weekend deal to watch. 

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Picked up about an inch with the band last night. Winds were really rocking with gusts over 40mph for a few hours. There's actually less snow in my yard than before it started snowing thanks to the wind sweeping the yard down to bare grass in spots. 

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1 hour ago, OHweather said:

After the band it was mainly just flurries. 0.8" is my best guess here. Just keep nickel and diming I guess. 

Compared to last winter, this year isn't doing too poorly until you realize most areas that didn't cash in on the LES bands in December are running 40-70% of their seasonal norms to date. If you are a snow enthusiast living in Euclid, this has certainly been your year! As a % of normal snowfall, they must be winning by a hefty margin.

I guess our attention now turns to the ice potential later in the week. Hopefully that doesn't pan out.

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2 hours ago, Trent said:

Compared to last winter, this year isn't doing too poorly until you realize most areas that didn't cash in on the LES bands in December are running 40-70% of their seasonal norms to date. If you are a snow enthusiast living in Euclid, this has certainly been your year! As a % of normal snowfall, they must be winning by a hefty margin.

I guess our attention now turns to the ice potential later in the week. Hopefully that doesn't pan out.

There haven't been many spread the wealth LES events...the couple there were (the one in November and the one last week) were not extremely impressive, so it has just been a few spots seeing the bulk of the snow.  We need some clippers or a little more synoptic snow for places that haven't seen the lake effect.  Even though some areas have missed or just been grazed by a lot of the LES events, the number of advisory or warning worthy events the last 5 weeks or so has been rather impressive...just a matter of getting some of those better events to occur a little farther south and west. 

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Talk about nickel and dime fluff at CLE! The past 4 days saw 2.6" on 0.09" liquid. That's almost 30:1 ratios. 

Oddly there has been no mention of 2016 being the warmest year on record for Cleveland by the NWS or any local media outlets. Kind of strange since even the most minor warm or cool spells elicit media articles these days. 

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Overnight has the potential to be the largest synoptic snowfall of the season (at least for the west side) depending on what time the changeover to freezing rain begins. Things look like they could be a mess for the morning commute. Sadly most areas will see their snow cover wiped out by the end of the day regardless. 

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It was nice to pick up a little more snow before the warm up. We'll be looking at much different landscape tomorrow. If anything the warmer temps, wind and rain should do a number on the ice that formed on the lake. We'll have open water when the next cold shot arrives around the end of the month (possibly).

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On 1/10/2017 at 3:11 PM, NEOH said:

It was nice to pick up a little more snow before the warm up. We'll be looking at much different landscape tomorrow. If anything the warmer temps, wind and rain should do a number on the ice that formed on the lake. We'll have open water when the next cold shot arrives around the end of the month (possibly).

50s felt great today! 

Looks like a quiet 10 days or so.  Lake will be primed for end of the month.  We're going to need a big event to end up at a decent year.  Not even 30" so far.  Kirtland to Chardon has definitely faired much better. I'd say they're probably around 60" for the year. 

We're pretty much in line with in a few inches of last year.....unfortunately. 

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14 hours ago, dta1984 said:

50s felt great today! 

Looks like a quiet 10 days or so.  Lake will be primed for end of the month.  We're going to need a big event to end up at a decent year.  Not even 30" so far.  Kirtland to Chardon has definitely faired much better. I'd say they're probably around 60" for the year. 

We're pretty much in line with in a few inches of last year.....unfortunately. 

What an awful pattern for mid-January. Woke up to thunder and heavy rain around 5am this morning with temps in the mid 50's. We will need a few significant events to get anywhere close to normal out this way. As long as there is open water on the lake we'll have a chance. Temps are in the 30's near the western basin, and that area hasn't had as much rain so this warm-up probably didn't melt all of the ice out that way.

Areas such and Euclid and Willoughby have probably exceeded their annual average snowfall already. Its pretty rare for those locations to see more snowfall than this area.

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11 hours ago, Trent said:

What a waste of 1-2" of rain in mid January. Pattern looks pretty bleak the next 10 days.

As we approach the mid point of winter, I'm starting to doubt whether snowfall will even hit average this year. 

I'll bet the under on getting to average around here... and at CLE as well. The lake should be ice free next week, but the water temps will be hovering around freezing. If we are going to get a significant LES event it would have to happen with the next cold shot as any sustained cold will form ice quickly again. When you take LES out of the equation and consider the lack of synoptic snow we receive it would take a special pattern to get to normal.

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Who would have thought that January 2017 would actually end up being more mundane than last January?!

CLE has now dipped below 50% of normal snowfall for the season and will be racking up quite the deficit in the foreseeable future.

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2 hours ago, Trent said:

Who would have thought that January 2017 would actually end up being more mundane than last January?!

CLE has now dipped below 50% of normal snowfall for the season and will be racking up quite the deficit in the foreseeable future.

On a positive note, my snow removal bill is going to be low for the second year in a row!

 

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1 hour ago, Trent said:

I had two rounds of thunderstorms today. So far this winter has had twice as many thunderstorms as 1"+ snowfalls.

Nothing like a 60 degree mid-January day! Looks like the pattern will change at the end of the month, and possibly offer storm potential.

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Some interesting figures for the first half of meteorological winter at CLE:

Since December 1st, the average temperature has been 31.98 degrees. Total precipitation has been 5.79", however only 16% (0.94") of that has fallen in the form of snow.

Perfect example of cold and dry being balanced out by warm and wet. 

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21 minutes ago, NEOH said:

CLE sums things up pretty well...


Given that it is mid January, it is remarkable that the air mass is so warm that there
is not much risk of snow. Some wet snow or a few sleet pellets may mix in Monday night
into Tuesday, probably mostly in the hills of northeast OH and northwest PA.

Ya this is an incredible mild stretch for mid winter.  Looks like the next chance of accumulating snow is at least a week away.  

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It was last below 32 on January 16th at 9am. Forecast doesn't have a below freezing temperature until at least next Wednesday the 25th. You know winter is turning into a disaster when you can't even dip below 32 degrees for a 10 day stretch in mid/late January. 

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