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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2


Trent
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We warm back up again next week so we should still have an open western basin the next time it gets cold. This winter has been a great example of cold/dry and warm/wet so far. We had a fairly close to average December in the temps/precip department but the snow just didn't work out outside of the LES jackpot areas. Still a ton of time left for snow. 

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Someone in Lake or Ashtabula could sneak in 4"...the snow isn't that organized but the heavier bursts keep training over the same areas so it may add up some. 

Pretty favorable conditions for a band to develop late tomorrow night into Friday with a light W wind and moderate instability...NAM and GFS have a W to WNW flow for several hours before backing later Friday morning, Euro doesn't ever develop a northerly component. I think there will be warning amounts tomorrow night into Friday but it'll be interesting to see if that band can get into northern Cuyahoga or Geauga before it shifts north. Wind direction will be important. 

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Rip city at the moment, 2" per our I think. We are already close 6" for the event, with the vast  majority falling from about 5pm ish till now (definitely Warning worthy out there, pretty nasty).

We are already at the low end of the forecasted Advisory amount for this event - will be interested to see what out total will be come Saturday morning.

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39 minutes ago, MAIDEsNow said:

Rip city at the moment, 2" per our I think. We are already close 6" for the event, with the vast  majority falling from about 5pm ish till now (definitely Warning worthy out there, pretty nasty).

We are already at the low end of the forecasted Advisory amount for this event - will be interested to see what out total will be come Saturday morning.

They probably need a warning for Erie County...you can tell on radar and satellite that things organize as you head through eastern Ashtabula Co into NW PA...pretty typical for a strong due W to WSW flow.

Things will shift out over the lake during the day Thursday, but Thursday night through Saturday AM will be interesting at times. The best banding may be in NE OH Thursday night into Friday morning, but Erie County should get some more chances Friday and Friday night.

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I don't have time to put together a write up, but here are some quick thoughts for Thursday evening-Saturday morning.  This map only includes snow from 7pm Thursday on and does not include anything falling before then, including the LES or light clipper snow.

A established and heavy band of snow should push off the lake mid to late Thursday evening into the primary snowbelt in NE OH and NW PA as a surface trough/wind shift pushes south.  Thinking is we get a WNW flow Thursday night behind the clipper which initially sets a band up in northern/eastern Cuyahoga into central Geauga before the winds go W to WSW Friday morning and push things into Lake/maybe extreme northern Geauga. We get another little shortwave Friday evening that may push things back south a bit (after perhaps a break for most everyone briefly Friday afternoon) and re-intensify the band for a time, before things end by early Saturday. Snow showers may linger a few hours longer in NW PA on Saturday until the winds go due SW by noon.

Instability is moderate and moisture is OK but not great. There could be some Lake MI help. Winds look light, generally 15MPH or less, which favors better banding and keeps the heaviest closer to the lake. Ratios will be high so accumulations could be quick. Banding moves some but may lock in for several hours Friday morning into the afternoon on a flow that generally favors Lake County. With some accumulating snow lingering through Friday night this turns into a fairly long duration event, and I'd be shocked if favored areas didn't see over 6". Parameters don't support super heavy 2-4" per hour rates, but any band could easily produce an inch an hour through Friday afternoon before conditions diminish further Friday evening into Friday night.  Right now I favor NE OH for a little more snow than NW PA for this leg of the event because of the surface trough pushing south into extreme NE OH and trying to focus the heaviest snow there.  The W flow favors better shoreline convergence in NE OH as well. 

Tough call for Cuyahoga.  Flow doesn't really have any northerly component by 7AM Friday on the models and is light, so any snow by that point would affect Euclid at most and that's about it.  With a light WNW flow Thursday night into very early Friday, convergence may sit over northern Cuyahoga and could drop accumulating snow even as far west as the western lakeshore before it shifts north Friday morning...amounts could be higher near the lake farther west, but I'm not extremely confident in that yet.

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Looks like another solid LES event for those from Rt.6 on northeast. NAM and WRF both have a lot of precip falling in that area. The slight shift north with the precip takes us out of the game completely around here... although we were never really in it. The consolation prize is that the bare ground will freeze so I won't have to deal with a muddy yard until the next warm up.

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25 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Looks like another solid LES event for those from Rt.6 on northeast. NAM and WRF both have a lot of precip falling in that area. The slight shift north with the precip takes us out of the game completely around here... although we were never really in it. The consolation prize is that the bare ground will freeze so I won't have to deal with a muddy yard until the next warm up.

There's still .2 or so qpf shown here.  Maybe that's not from les and more from the southern system?  

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2 hours ago, OHweather said:

Between the snow today and the little burst of les tonight with the wind shift you guys should get like 2"...but yeah the best will again be farther north. 

Haha it's been that kind of winter.......I'll take it .

Ground is whitening up, steady light snow.

Actually moderate snow with big flakes in Solon .

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2 hours ago, OHweather said:

Between the snow today and the little burst of les tonight with the wind shift you guys should get like 2"...but yeah the best will again be farther north. 

About an inch of fluff has come down... just had a nice burst of snow. Huge flakes under the heavier returns on radar.

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38 minutes ago, NEOH said:

About an inch of fluff has come down... just had a nice burst of snow. Huge flakes under the heavier returns on radar.

These little bursts don't last long but they're certainly nice. I've gotten so used to SE Ohio that a 50" winter would knock my socks off at this point :lol:

but a good spread the wealth event or storm would be nice at some point 

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58 minutes ago, OHweather said:

These little bursts don't last long but they're certainly nice. I've gotten so used to SE Ohio that a 50" winter would knock my socks off at this point :lol:

but a good spread the wealth event or storm would be nice at some point 

Forgot that this is your first winter back up "north". If this pattern keeps up you may have to wait for a 50" winter ;)

We'll get our synoptic system one of these days... its just a matter of time.

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35 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Forgot that this is your first winter back up "north". If this pattern keeps up you may have to wait for a 50" winter ;)

We'll get our synoptic system one of these days... its just a matter of time.

Today will put me over 20" so I still like my chances. Average out my way is probably 70-75", which will be tough. 50" not as hard. 

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4 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Today will put me over 20" so I still like my chances. Average out my way is probably 70-75", which will be tough. 50" not as hard. 

We average around 90"-100" in this area... which doesn't seem feasible at this point. But who knows, maybe February and March will be rockin.

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2 hours ago, NEOH said:

We average around 90"-100" in this area... which doesn't seem feasible at this point. But who knows, maybe February and March will be rockin.

We are due for a rockin March.    

2" here, still snowing. 

The bands off shore look good, someone will do well tonight.   

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Lol, the models are now bringing another surface trough through Saturday morning and turning the winds WNW instead of letting a high build in.  I can't imagine the snow being extremely intense by then, but maybe it sneaks far enough SW for Trent to pick up a couple of inches.  Us inland folk may never do great with such light winds.  Arctic front moves through Saturday night probably with another burst of snow that could be a couple or few inches.  It'll all add up a little bit.

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8 hours ago, OHweather said:

Lol, the models are now bringing another surface trough through Saturday morning and turning the winds WNW instead of letting a high build in.  I can't imagine the snow being extremely intense by then, but maybe it sneaks far enough SW for Trent to pick up a couple of inches.  Us inland folk may never do great with such light winds.  Arctic front moves through Saturday night probably with another burst of snow that could be a couple or few inches.  It'll all add up a little bit.

So is that a situation of a decent flow for us, but not enough inland penetration?  

Wonder how lake county did last night?  That band hung out in that area for most of the night, but don't think it was that intense.  

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31 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

So is that a situation of a decent flow for us, but not enough inland penetration?  

Wonder how lake county did last night?  That band hung out in that area for most of the night, but don't think it was that intense.  

The flow is too weak for locations well inland yes.

3SW Willoughby had 7" as of 5am and Euclid got 4" between 7pm and 11pm...so that narrow corridor did well.  Everywhere else the band moved a bit too much and kept amounts to 2-3" it looks like.  Parts of Erie County in NW PA saw upwards of a foot overnight.

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3 hours ago, OHweather said:

The flow is too weak for locations well inland yes.

3SW Willoughby had 7" as of 5am and Euclid got 4" between 7pm and 11pm...so that narrow corridor did well.  Everywhere else the band moved a bit too much and kept amounts to 2-3" it looks like.  Parts of Erie County in NW PA saw upwards of a foot overnight.

Isn't that amazing... the flow will finally become favorable but we will lack the wind strength to push the band inland. High res models are showing a good amount of snow near the lakeshore. Took a peak at the visible satellite and there is a lot of ice out west. I'd imagine with temps near 0 tonight the western basin will be closed off.

For laughs... take a look at the long range GFS. The overrunning event it depicts for next weekend would be crazy.

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9 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Isn't that amazing... the flow will finally become favorable but we will lack the wind strength to push the band inland. High res models are showing a good amount of snow near the lakeshore. Took a peak at the visible satellite and there is a lot of ice out west. I'd imagine with temps near 0 tonight the western basin will be closed off.

For laughs... take a look at the long range GFS. The overrunning event it depicts for next weekend would be crazy.

Next weekend could be interesting, but it's still 8 days out.  Can't ignore a 1050mb high just to our north if you can throw a lot of moisture up our way.  I'm more worried about not getting the moisture far enough north than not being cold enough at this point, so it'll probably just rain :lol:

There's still enough heat flux through thinner ice that with some above freezing temps/rain/wind this week that we'll still probably get some juice from the western basin when it gets cold again...but yeah, for some spots this has been a very frustrating LES season.  Some areas have done very well, but some big "losers" as well.

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No need for a Warning for inland Erie County because it was clear last night, and sunny today inland.

But...the lakeshore should have a Warning, not an Advisory, due to a HEAVY snowband north of 90 for almost the entire shoreline of the county for a good chunk of last night and all day today. It is ripping.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, MAIDEsNow said:

No need for a Warning for inland Erie County because it was clear last night, and sunny today inland.

But...the lakeshore should have a Warning, not an Advisory, due to a HEAVY snowband north of 90 for almost the entire shoreline of the county for a good chunk of last night and all day today. It is ripping.

 

 

No radar coverage certainly doesn't help you. Should be impressive totals near the shoreline though. 

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