Wmsptwx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Lol, MAG wouldn't a rapidly deepening low taking that track give us very unstable weather? At least a nice squall line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 Lol, MAG wouldn't a rapidly deepening low taking that track give us very unstable weather? At least a nice squall line? greatest instability would be in the warm sector where we would be in... thunder maybe/squall line of snow doubtful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Lol, MAG wouldn't a rapidly deepening low taking that track give us very unstable weather? At least a nice squall line? We wouldn't bust into the warm sector on the 12z GFS solution, parts of our region (likely south-central/Sus Valley) probably would on the new 12z Euro's. Both solutions are a heavy rain to snow on the tail end type deal followed by the usual LES & upslope snow showers/squalls regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Nice little burst of snow here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 We wouldn't bust into the warm sector on the 12z GFS solution, parts of our region (likely south-central/Sus Valley) probably would on the new 12z Euro's. Both solutions are a heavy rain to snow on the tail end type deal followed by the usual LES & upslope snow showers/squalls regime. Dang, lol. I hate CAD when it keeps us in the high 40s and keeps us out of the fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Merry Christmas, here's a GLC and warm rainstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Lol, tbh I'd like that if it would mean we could get in on some cool weather, but like usual we get an okay soaking, while the warm sector probably has a shot at least convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Merry Christmas, here's a GLC and warm rainstorm! And of course the models will sniff that out 7-10 days in advance, not waver one bit, and it will happen verbatim...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Nice little burst of snow here right now. After being out in it its more of a graupel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 After being out in it its more of a graupel. Yeah we had some here as well. I noticed a few columns present perhaps indicating some secondary ice production with the graupel collecting supercooled water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Barring some kind of insane shift in guidance the prospect of anything big from this has waned. It just doesn't appear we are going to get the amplification necessary to bring a moderate to heavy event into our area. However, I think we still stand a chance of a lighter event (more of a 1-2" type deal) if we end up with an expansive enough precip shield and enough punch left from what currently looks to be a fading southern stream wave on the way out. Speaking of insane, the GFS has joined the Euro in losing it's mind in the period right near Christmas. If there's one thing the GFS is somewhat competent at forecasting more than 2 days in advance, it's a good old fashioned GLC. The 12z run has the deep low over PA (ala yesterdays 12z Euro) maturing into a 960mb in the northern lakes region. If the Euro is the one in the bunch that has been prone to overamping systems as of late I'd love to see what that's gonna look like in an hour. Details aside, there has been a strong signal from both the Euro and GFS of some kind of a significant amplification in the pattern in that period, and probably the return of actual cold air to the US. As far as the storm this weekend,I think it's safe to say it's almost dead. We might, and that's a big MIGHT get some snow in the southern regions of the forum, but that's about it imo at least. The ridge that was present out west earlier this week on the Euro runs is completely gone and we can thank the Pacific for that one. I just want to see some snow before we have to break out the ark on Christmas. You know that Lakes cutter is going to happen too. If there's one thing the models, especially the GFS, can pinpoint in the LR is a cutter. It could be a doozy too. I would love to be in Wisconsin and the UP for Christmas. Who's up for a forum trip to Sault Ste. Marie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Would anywhere in OV see severe from a low of that magnitude Millville or are dynamics not there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 As far as the storm this weekend,I think it's safe to say it's almost dead. We might, and that's a big MIGHT get some snow in the southern regions of the forum, but that's about it imo at least. The ridge that was present out west earlier this week on the Euro runs is completely gone and we can thank the Pacific for that one. I just want to see some snow before we have to break out the ark on Christmas. You know that Lakes cutter is going to happen too. If there's one thing the models, especially the GFS, can pinpoint in the LR is a cutter. It could be a doozy too. I would love to be in Wisconsin and the UP for Christmas. Who's up for a forum trip to Sault Ste. Marie? Hey 18z GFS says yes we can for western and central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Would anywhere in OV see severe from a low of that magnitude Millville or are dynamics not there? The way the storm is progged to track today on the 12z guidance would suggest to me a definite severe weather threat involved with this but probably mainly for the deep south and southeastern states. Dynamics are definitely there, the 850 winds progged on the Euro are insane (~50-70kts). As I said earlier the GFS would probably keep us out of the warm sector and the Euros farther west track probably opens the door for the south central and Sus Valley to get into it. A closer look at the Euro products does send CAPEs of a couple hundred j/kg into south central & eastern PA. CAPE of any value in PA is pretty uncommon in December (or any other winter month) so certainly that coupled with the tremendous dynamics could suggest a squall line with damaging winds getting into those aforementioned areas of PA with a frontal passage. I'm only talking these fine details of the models at this range just to explain to you what it showing of course. Otherwise in terms of track and details the only thing I'm looking at seriously at this juncture is the fact that the GFS and European guidance are suggesting a big time amplification of the pattern in this timeframe. Hypothetically, we could end up more progressive with the trof axis further east, or just a bit of a weaker storm in general, and then suddenly we're talking about a big snowstorm.. certainly not out of the realm of possibility since we've generally been running fairly progressive this winter. The amplification on these models right now is really pretty crazy to begin with, CTP stated on their disco that they're progging record low pressures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Would anywhere in OV see severe from a low of that magnitude Millville or are dynamics not there?Just from a quick look I don't think the OV would be the spot for it. The Tennessee Valley could have a shot though. Looks like some wicked shear across that region and the SE is always in play. Now, that's just a quick look. I'll look a little more into later on. I know Ian and Mark over in the MA sub forum would be interested. The 18z GFS sort of has my attention. Of course, it's the 18z GFS. Tempered expectations over here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The long range pattern is starting to look more favorable for colder and perhaps stormier weather. Here is a plot showing the top 10 500 mb height analogs over the NH based off of last nights Euro ensemble mean 240 h forecast. You can see that the best matches of those have three important features 1) a ridge extending poleward in the Gulf of Alaska, 2) some ridging over in the North Atlantic and 3) a stronger-than-normal meridional gradient in height over the southern tier of the US. The implied enhanced subtropical jet and improved cold-air delivery for the eastern US increases the likelihood of wintery weather around and after New Years. It does seem as if the strength of the ridging in the North Atlantic is dependent upon the transport of heat poleward through a string of synoptic eddys, the first of which is forecast to develop around Christmas Eve. The exact development of these features as depicted by the Euro ensemble mean may vary with time given the unpredictable behavior of the synoptic systems. Either way, things look to get more interesting here in the next 7-10 days and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 But... but... "Prepare for a crappy winter.", "El Busto", etc etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Tbh, this winter is kinda nice. Snowed twice at least advisory amounts here already, and when it isn't snowing its a reasonable temp outside and not that sickening 20 below windchill with no snow stuff we had last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The long range pattern is starting to look more favorable for colder and perhaps stormier weather. Here is a plot showing the top 10 500 mb height analogs over the NH based off of last nights Euro ensemble mean 240 h forecast. You can see that the best matches of those have three important features 1) a ridge extending poleward in the Gulf of Alaska, 2) some ridging over in the North Atlantic and 3) a stronger-than-normal meridional gradient in height over the southern tier of the US. The implied enhanced subtropical jet and improved cold-air delivery for the eastern US increases the likelihood of wintery weather around and after New Years. It does seem as if the strength of the ridging in the North Atlantic is dependent upon the transport of heat poleward through a string of synoptic eddys, the first of which is forecast to develop around Christmas Eve. The exact development of these features as depicted by the Euro ensemble mean may vary with time given the unpredictable behavior of the synoptic systems. Either way, things look to get more interesting here in the next 7-10 days and beyond. anPlot.png I'll take that look and run. Good find heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Wow. The sun is out. That's crazy. We might actually break 40 down here, although we only have a few hours of sunlight left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I'll take that look and run. Good find heavy Yeah let's just roll that first analog forward one month lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Wow, that may be the one analog ever where IPT had huge jackpot amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Yeah let's just roll that first analog forward one month lol. I would graciously accept that outcome haha. I love the 30+ dot for Mt. Pocono btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Not sure what the issue was, but i can post once again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Not sure what the issue was, but i can post once again! Welcome back!! We finally have some sunshine and incoming wind to talk about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Not sure what the issue was, but i can post once again! What'd they ban ya for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Tbh, this winter is kinda nice. Snowed twice at least advisory amounts here already, and when it isn't snowing its a reasonable temp outside and not that sickening 20 below windchill with no snow stuff we had last year. I would hope you'd think that haha, you and pawatch are probably leading the way in our sub forum in the snowfall department so far. I'm currently at 7.6" for the year and looking back at our previous thread you said you had 7.8" from the Nov 26th storm alone. I've certainly seen worse starts to winter around here, 06-07 comes to mind with its completely DOA start. All things considered we've actually done pretty well considering the pattern we've been given this month. The monster cut off storm that stuck around all of last week likely prevented a major warm up from getting into the northeast, all while delivering advisory snows in a good bit of the central counties with that bullseye of 6-12" in east-central PA. But yea the generally mild December has kept any bouts of snow from sticking around very long despite a few opportunities, while otherwise getting a couple of mainly rainers.. typical of an el nino pattern without the NAO/EPO support. If your going to unleash a dominant active subtropical jet, you better have the favorable pattern in place to get snow.. else you get rained on. Just ask our Mid-Atlantic friends. NAO and EPO are forecast to tank especially once we get to the new year, indicative of the over the top ridging that is shown on heavy-wx's analogs he showed as well as on the actual computer model forecasts. That would help deliver cold air that has been absent from the lower 48 and a more favorable storm track. Yeah let's just roll that first analog forward one month lol. Wow the rare storm that would make everyone in PA happy haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 So that Christmas Eve storm, let's take a road trip to SW Minnesota or the Wisconsin Dells. They're gonna get a massive blizzard. We're gonna get flash flood watches and maybe a wind headline. Ha, ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 With the 2 storms I have 11" for my total. Which is a pretty good start for the season. More snow than I had in 88-89. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 With the 2 storms I have 11" for my total. Which is a pretty good start for the season. More snow than I had in 88-89. Yeah not too bad at UNV either; 7.7" so far this season vs. the 7.4" average for Dec. 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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