Central PA & Fringes - December-January 2014-15

[djr5001]

so who wanted that complete miss on a run of the Euro?....

[Wmsptwx]

Wow, what a jump.

[sauss06]

throw it out

[pasnownut]

Consider it thrown Sauss. It'll be back. Just gotta wait till wed night. Doesn't make sense as NAO is heading neutral that the 50/50 stays around long enough to squash this thing to the south. I could see that happening in a couple weeks if things evolve as modeled. JMO's

Nut.

[Eskimo Joe]

RE:  12z EURO

 

The operational EURO should not be ''thrown'' out, despite the chants from certain weenies.  This weekend's potential storm reminds me very much of 12/19/2009 in regards to the 50/50 low.  For several days, the guidance was quick to shear out the storm as it encountered the 50/50 low.  The produced an incredibly sharp northern edge in the precip shield.  It was not until just 48 - 60 hours out, when the key players got into the US upper air network, that things changed.  The southern stream energy and its potency was better sampled and the result was a progressive change towards a Mid Atlantic crush job.  The OP EURO, despite it's better accuracy rating in the medium to long term is still on its own.  The ensembles support a //storm// but not one as robust as the op.  

 

With the UKMET, GGEM and GFS now showing at least some type of surface reflection off the Hatteras coast this weekend, you could make the argument that odds for a storm have increased, and it will not be until Thursday afternoon that we can start boasting or crying of it's strength or lack there of.  Keep in mind that Central PA experiences a 10" or greater snowstorm once a decade on average.  The 09-10 season should always be fondly remembered as the exception, not the rule for this area.

[Eskimo Joe]

I should also add the 12z EURO ensembles are west of the OP and still support an amped solution.  The 12z UKMET OP is a tad less juiced than the 12z OP EURO, but still supports at least a plowable snowfall for much of C-PA.

[MillvilleWx]

RE:  12z EURO

 

The operational EURO should not be ''thrown'' out, despite the chants from certain weenies.  This weekend's potential storm reminds me very much of 12/19/2009 in regards to the 50/50 low.  For several days, the guidance was quick to shear out the storm as it encountered the 50/50 low.  The produced an incredibly sharp northern edge in the precip shield.  It was not until just 48 - 60 hours out, when the key players got into the US upper air network, that things changed.  The southern stream energy and its potency was better sampled and the result was a progressive change towards a Mid Atlantic crush job.  The OP EURO, despite it's better accuracy rating in the medium to long term is still on its own.  The ensembles support a //storm// but not one as robust as the op.  

 

With the UKMET, GGEM and GFS now showing at least some type of surface reflection off the Hatteras coast this weekend, you could make the argument that odds for a storm have increased, and it will not be until Thursday afternoon that we can start boasting or crying of it's strength or lack there of.  Keep in mind that Central PA experiences a 10" or greater snowstorm once a decade on average.  The 09-10 season should always be fondly remembered as the exception, not the rule for this area.

 

This is a point that my boss (Eric Horst) emphasizes all the time. There is very little sampling in the western Pacific and it becomes very easy for the models to swing solutions one way or the other due to the lack of data available from the pieces of energy that would be involved in a storm. That's why it makes me laugh to see people swing from model run to model run when something changes. There has always been a lack of consistency at this time period before an event and very rarely does one model hold a particular solution for more than 5 days. 

 

This is a very complex setup that can deliver if everything works perfectly in harmony or ultimately fall short of expectations on most occasions. This is a split flow regime which is something the models have a great deal of trouble on. There's also a region of confluence due to a developing 50/50 low in the North Atlantic to throw into the mix and that could end up being what saves or hurts many peoples chances in here on the prospects of a SECS or MECS. The 50/50 low if too far west and too strong will shunt the storm off to the south and have it blow up out with the fish. If it's too far east or weak, it cuts over land, so you can see how delicate the setup is. It's going to take some serious patience with something of this magnitude. Looking back at the models, it seems to be around 12z Wednesday we'll see more upper air data from the 2 shortwaves sampled as they enter the western US. By 0z Thursday and forward, we should have a better range of viable solutions heading into the actual forecasted storm period.

[Fozz]

MillvilleWx, you should get a yellow Pro-Forecaster tag. Ask an admin.

[pawatch]

RE:  12z EURO

 

The operational EURO should not be ''thrown'' out, despite the chants from certain weenies.  This weekend's potential storm reminds me very much of 12/19/2009 in regards to the 50/50 low.  For several days, the guidance was quick to shear out the storm as it encountered the 50/50 low.  The produced an incredibly sharp northern edge in the precip shield.  It was not until just 48 - 60 hours out, when the key players got into the US upper air network, that things changed.  The southern stream energy and its potency was better sampled and the result was a progressive change towards a Mid Atlantic crush job.  The OP EURO, despite it's better accuracy rating in the medium to long term is still on its own.  The ensembles support a //storm// but not one as robust as the op.  

 

With the UKMET, GGEM and GFS now showing at least some type of surface reflection off the Hatteras coast this weekend, you could make the argument that odds for a storm have increased, and it will not be until Thursday afternoon that we can start boasting or crying of it's strength or lack there of.  Keep in mind that Central PA experiences a 10" or greater snowstorm once a decade on average.  The 09-10 season should always be fondly remembered as the exception, not the rule for this area.

12/19/09 I got less than an inch of snow from that storm.

[NortheastPAWx]

12/19/09 I got less than an inch of snow from that storm.

Yep, that one was brutal and the first signal of a long-term trend of screw jobs. Dry air killed us.

[MillvilleWx]

MillvilleWx, you should get a yellow Pro-Forecaster tag. Ask an admin.

 

In one semester I can get a red tag    I'll wait patiently

[canderson]

The overnight model runs were so bad (ie unfavorable for a storm) that the mods were offering US dollars for posters to stop complaining/posting.

[mappy]

The overnight model runs were so bad (ie unfavorable for a storm) that the mods were offering US dollars for posters to stop complaining/posting.

 

don't think any mods were offering money...

[Fozz]

The overnight model runs were so bad (ie unfavorable for a storm) that the mods were offering US dollars for posters to stop complaining/posting.

 

Not exactly.

[pasnownut]

Actually z.w..s will PayPal us to not post in MA forum. That's a shame. Used to like him. .

[canderson]

don't think any mods were offering money...

Oh, well I read a post where someone was; I thought it was a mod. It was late as hell at night when I couldn't sleep though so go figure if I'm wrong.

[mappy]

Oh, well I read a post where someone was; I thought it was a mod. It was late as hell at night when I couldn't sleep though so go figure if I'm wrong.

 

def not a mod

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

def not a mod

Does he pay well? It's the holidays, buyouts are not a bad thing!

[Wmsptwx]

This thread livened up and died off in almost record time!!!

[pasnownut]

Sounds like the 12z euro op still shows a flatter solution but has some precip gettin north of the md/pa border. Still think tomorrow night 0z run is when this starts to come back if it's going to (operational models-as euro ens from last night still likes the storm idea) but think yesterday's wound up solution is unlikely but a light to mod event is still in play for the southern tier. Regardless I will carry this "torch" any day. This is surely my kind of warmup as we were to be in the 50's a week ago today.

Whatever happens this weekend....next week sounds like the start of what could be lots of presents for everyone

Nut.

[Wmsptwx]

I'd be okay with 50s or warmer with no snow chances.

[Rdd9108]

Figure this would make some of you laugh. Next thursday

[canderson]

Poor Nevada's gonna get its first-ever hurricane landing huh.

[pasnownut]

Thankfully that storm may be the one to finally gets things to finally start looking more favorable in the near term and not on 10 day progs. A/O NAO will be heading neg. as this has been discussed by many for some time.

Patience is no virtue for snow lovers but hope it's worth the wait.

Nut.

[MAG5035]

Holy lord the Euro loses a storm with 4-5 days to go and Mid-Atlantic looked unreadable last night.. actually after looking more closely at posts I saw a big reason why.

 

Anyways, I've seen this song and dance before with these split flow systems in the mid-range where they go flat and play possum til it gets near the short range. Not saying that it comes back every time, but there's no way I'm throwing out the storm possibility this weekend at this moment. As was mentioned yesterday, the features at play to make or break the storm are yet on the playing field in terms of being sampled well. And northern stream interaction figures to be an important part of getting this storm to be more potent and track more up along the coast.  

 

Otherwise, there has been and continues to be good model agreement on development of the southern stream wave in the Gulf, so we will have to see where things take us the next couple days. 

[MillvilleWx]

Holy lord the Euro loses a storm with 4-5 days to go and Mid-Atlantic looked unreadable last night.. actually after looking more closely at posts I saw a big reason why.

Anyways, I've seen this song and dance before with these split flow systems in the mid-range where they go flat and play possum til it gets near the short range. Not saying that it comes back every time, but there's no way I'm throwing out the storm possibility this weekend at this moment. As was mentioned yesterday, the features at play to make or break the storm are yet on the playing field in terms of being sampled well. And northern stream interaction figures to be an important part of getting this storm to be more potent and track more up along the coast.

Otherwise, there has been and continues to be good model agreement on development of the southern stream wave in the Gulf, so we will have to see where things take us the next couple days.

I mentioned this same type of post yesterday. I agree 100%. I don't think many people remember how difficult it is to predict a split flow pattern. It's tough enough at 2-3 days leads let alone 5-7. I think a system at this point is a good call, but how strong is it and how big does the precip field expand to areas impacted are no where close to being recognized. By 12z tomorrow and 0z Thursday we should have a better handle on the situation. I'm remaining patient.

[Eskimo Joe]

Punt this storm.  Get ready for a craptastic winter.

[mappy]

Punt this storm.  Get ready for a craptastic winter.

 

ahh, dont ever change

[Atomixwx]

Punt this storm. Get ready for a craptastic winter.

Welp, get ready for a brutal season, folks.

[MAG5035]

I mentioned this same type of post yesterday. I agree 100%. I don't think many people remember how difficult it is to predict a split flow pattern. It's tough enough at 2-3 days leads let alone 5-7. I think a system at this point is a good call, but how strong is it and how big does the precip field expand to areas impacted are no where close to being recognized. By 12z tomorrow and 0z Thursday we should have a better handle on the situation. I'm remaining patient.

 

 

Barring some kind of insane shift in guidance the prospect of anything big from this has waned. It just doesn't appear we are going to get the amplification necessary to bring a moderate to heavy event into our area. However, I think we still stand a chance of a lighter event (more of a 1-2" type deal) if we end up with an expansive enough precip shield and enough punch left from what currently looks to be a fading southern stream wave on the way out. 

 

Speaking of insane, the GFS has joined the Euro in losing it's mind in the period right near Christmas. If there's one thing the GFS is somewhat competent at forecasting more than 2 days in advance, it's a good old fashioned GLC. The 12z run has the deep low over PA (ala yesterdays 12z Euro) maturing into a 960mb in the northern lakes region. If the Euro is the one in the bunch that has been prone to overamping systems as of late I'd love to see what that's gonna look like in an hour. Details aside, there has been a strong signal from both the Euro and GFS of some kind of a significant amplification in the pattern in that period, and probably the return of actual cold air to the US.