Blizz Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Thats last nights 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Thats last nights 00z. Ooops...Still eye candy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Ooops...Still eye candy though. 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Euro buries southern PA, northern PA not so much this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Euro buries southern PA, northern PA not so much this run. There's a nice blocky type setup on the Euro that would cause a sharp cutoff on the northern fringe. This was brutal for those north of Dauphin county, but a monster hit for those in Lancaster, York, Adams and Franklin. Edit: Not so much monster for Lancaster and York per say, but Adams and Franklin, no doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Yep 0z Euro is another big hit..this time primarily for all of PA under I-80 (includes the western PA gang). Tracks a lot flatter than 12z. 850 temps are pretty marginal, would need to see some more details here in a bit to see if there's any mixing issues anywhere. This pretty much would continue our theme of very marginal temp events so far this winter. GFS has it too, but a good bit weaker and actually warmer thermally than the Euro. At any rate, the Euro solution is pretty December '09-ish. I like that December '09 analog but I think if any eventual southern stream system does come out of this in that fashion it will be a warmer version of that event. Still generally a +NAO/AO forecast going forward (though trending toward neutral near storm time frame) limiting cold air availability and probably limiting how far south this thing will actually stay if it gets wound up the way the Euro has it. I'd be wary of the trend back north later this week with this one, but at the same time.. I like the chances that some portion of our region gets a good event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 There's a nice blocky type setup on the Euro that would cause a sharp cutoff on the northern fringe. This was brutal for those north of Dauphin county, but a monster hit for those in Lancaster, York, Adams and Franklin. Edit: Not so much monster for Lancaster and York per say, but Adams and Franklin, no doubt Eh everyone in the southern tier get railed good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 nothing for certain, obviously. but glad euro still holds onto a big storm. none of the other models do though. But at this point, I really dont give a damn about any of them. Euro is KING. I too will wait until a few more runs before caring much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Eh everyone in the southern tier get railed good. Oh I agree, but when I say "monster" totals, I mean anything over 15". York and Lancaster not quite there even assuming a 10:1 ratio, which with a quick look at this run shows a marginal boundary setup along a portion of the southern tier. Overall, the H5 setup is beautiful for many here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Oh I agree, but when I say "monster" totals, I mean anything over 15". York and Lancaster not quite there even assuming a 10:1 ratio, which with a quick look at this run shows a marginal boundary setup along a portion of the southern tier. Overall, the H5 setup is beautiful for many here. Just waiting for the run where it says got ya, and we all get nothing. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Shouldn't have taken that nap now I am wide awake. But this looks similar to feb 5 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Just waiting for the run where it says got ya, and we all get nothing. lol. Me too actually. I'm starting to think this is just a dream haha Btw, if this actually happens out in the Shenandoah, I might go chase this even though where I'm at could get a foot. I love it out in that area anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Me too actually. I'm starting to think this is just a dream haha Btw, if this actually happens out in the Shenandoah, I might go chase this even though where I'm at could get a foot. I love it out in that area anyway. Chasing is fun, but there is nothing better than watching it from your own backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Chasing is fun, but there is nothing better than watching it from your own backyard. True, unless you did what I did and travel 500 miles to Waltham, Mass in February 9-10th of 2013. That chase was beyond epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 True, unless you did what I did and travel 500 miles to Waltham, Mass in February 9-10th of 2013. That chase was beyond epic If that is the storm I am thinking of, i went to CT and got smoked. You have a FB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Oh boy. I remeber the storms of 09-10. That was one of the most frustrating winters for me. I know it's early, and much will change, but this map is not what I want to see. Thankfully, it's still a number of days away... Shouldn't have taken that nap now I am wide awake. But this looks similar to feb 5 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 gonna be a looooooooooooong week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 gonna be a looooooooooooong week agreed! celebrating the kiddos 2nd (!!!) bday saturday. But, I would love it to snow, who gets to celebrate their 5-year wedding anniversary, almost to the day they got married in the snow Euro looks good down my way, at or below freezing the entire event. sharp cut off since heaviest precip is west. but id take it in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 FWIW, the UKMET is in the EURO camp now. Shows a sub-1000 mb low. At this time period, having the UKMET and EURO on your side is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 A comparison of the 06z GFS and the 00z Euro suggests that the main sensitivity to the track and strength of this potential system comes from the initial amplitude of the southern stream wave (at 500 mb). The Euro has this feature more amplified with a stronger meridional flow upstream of the maximum vorticity. This allows for the wave to extend farther south and closer to the natural baroclinic zone of the Gulf coast. As a result, the surface wave deepens and amplifies the 500 mb wave, as that feature becomes negatively tilted. The surface low redevelops in the Carolinas, tapping into the available potential energy found along the coast and further amplifying the surface and mid-levels. The 06z GFS has an initially less-amplified 500 mb wave and thus develops a weaker surface low, farther north of where the baroclinic zone would be enhanced along the Gulf coast. This causes a weaker surface low to track farther north, deamplifying the 500 mb trough as some northern stream energy destructively interferes with this system. I think we'll have to wait at least a few days to see how amplified this southern stream disturbance is as it gets sampled by the sounding network and its evolution becomes more apparent in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 For an extremely deamplified southern stream, check out the 00z CMC. It has several low-amplitude shortwaves coming into California's central coast region around the time the Euro has single 500 mb trough. These disturbances never consolidate and remain out of phase with the weak surface low the model develops over Gulf region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 A comparison of the 06z GFS and the 00z Euro suggests that the main sensitivity to the track and strength of this potential system comes from the initial amplitude of the southern stream wave (at 500 mb). The Euro has this feature more amplified with a stronger meridional flow upstream of the maximum vorticity. This allows for the wave to extend farther south and closer to the natural baroclinic zone of the Gulf coast. As a result, the surface wave deepens and amplifies the 500 mb wave, as that feature becomes negatively tilted. The surface low redevelops in the Carolinas, tapping into the available potential energy found along the coast and further amplifying the surface and mid-levels. The 06z GFS has an initially less-amplified 500 mb wave and thus develops a weaker surface low, farther north of where the baroclinic zone would be enhanced along the Gulf coast. This causes a weaker surface low to track farther north, deamplifying the 500 mb trough as some northern stream energy destructively interferes with this system. I think we'll have to wait at least a few days to see how amplified this southern stream disturbance is as it gets sampled by the sounding network and its evolution becomes more apparent in time. GFS has really struggled with the northern vs southern stream energy so far with events this past month. Euro has been too strong in the 3-7 day range (QPF way over done) but when it has locked in on an event occurring there has been a system in the general area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Looking through the members and precip panel there's also a camp of solutions that look similar to the para and 6z gfs that have the bulk slide south of us. If the 50/50 really asserts itself it's viable solution. Pretty mixed between the 3 solutions (tucked sketchy / near perfect / slider). There are some west solutions too but outliers now. Not a lot of support for that it's pretty unanimous that we get precip and 28 members have .75+ for the event through much of the area. Overall a pretty wet signal at this lead. The mslp + low location panels don't really show which is favored even though the mean looks good. Good # of inside the coast tracks. ll0zsun.JPG ll6zsun.JPG ll12zsun.JPG H8, H7, H5 lows all south and east of the area now. Warm nose is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Why do I have a feeling the ECM verbatim will be right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Why do I have a feeling the ECM verbatim will be right... LOL I wonder. That map is our nightmares, but hard to take seriously this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 This will change that's one thing we can count on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 LOL I wonder. That map is our nightmares, but hard to take seriously this far out. actually its easy to take seriously as the "king" has a great way of sniffing em out....how it evolves....another story. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 LOL I wonder. That map is our nightmares, but hard to take seriously this far out. Heh nothing like being on the wrong end of a tight precip gradient with marginal temperatures. I feel like since I've been in central PA it often comes down to us just not getting enough precip in a lot of events--lots of 2-4" type deals, but I still don't think I've seen rates equal to the best I've seen back in the South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Euro does have a habit of sniffing out the big ones pretty far in advance. Lots to fine-tune but I have a pretty solid feeling, here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 There is the run of the Euro I was waiting for, bye bye storm. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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