PennMan Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Are you working in clearfield? Yeah, soil sampling. Very fine flakes at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Coming enough to start sticking to the roads again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Around 0.5" of snow from the band down here the past hour. I thought I was going to get shut out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 This was as of 8:00am this morning from a co-op observer here. I didn't measure as I just got home from work after starting at 3:15am. Looks like we came close to a half foot of snow out of this thing. TAMAQUA 5.5 800 AM 12/11 CO-OP OBSERVER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 So it DOES precipitate in Tamaqua? Haha. I was wondering how you were doing, I-81 from the I-78 junction all the way up through WB-Scranton has looked like a pretty rough drive on the 511 cameras all evening. Just got home from work...see post above...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Snowglobe again in Harrisburg. Pushing 3.5" I'd guess today, compaction between 8 am and now makes it a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 I assume the winds aloft are breaking up the flakes? They're pretty craptastic although it's coming down pretty nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I assume the winds aloft are breaking up the flakes? They're pretty craptastic although it's coming down pretty nicely. No its the dry air...there is nearly a 10 degree dew point depression in some locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I heard a snow plow this morning before I got up. but all we had was a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Looks like this upcoming week will be pretty quiet storm wise and even precip wise in general. Average to maybe slightly above average for the region. The main focus will turn toward the December 21st time frame where long range guidance is hinting at an amplified troughing feature for the east coast. The GFS and Euro both have a southern wave that makes things a little interesting for the time as there seems to be a storm potential for the east. The new 12z European phases the southern energy with a northern stream vort and sharpens the trough axis allowing a surface low to come up the Atlantic seaboard and wallop the southern region of the subforum. Now, this is still 7 days out and it will probably change, but the cards are on the table I believe as the overall long wave pattern is becoming more favorable for cyclogenesis providing a winter type precip over a broader area. Now, the particular setup is appealing, but a lot can go wrong. Without an established block in the North Atlantic, the progression of high pressures that slide along in Canada have to be perfectly timed and in a good position. We haven't really had that at all, and these systems keep attacking stale air masses which leads us to transition precip types from frozen to liquid. I don't think at this point we can lock in anything, even when it's close due to how marginal the pattern has been. Too much can go wrong in this sort of pattern. I'm not saying the Euro can't be correct, but it's not likely at this juncture. Hopefully the ensembles agree with the OP because that's always a good sign if they do and maybe the Euro sees something the American models might not catch up on (Wouldn't that be a shocker...). Anyway, the LR outlook looks great and I'm confident in a period after Xmas for a greater opportunity to get a favorable setup for every here with more robust cold air masses than the weaker polar shots we've been receiving. Game on I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 small question here for folks. given the temperature profiles projected to be over this region over the next several days, I'm personally seeing a bit of an air quality risk developing, especially in deeper valleys, due to the inversion aloft setting up between 3000-5000ft asl. I know it won't be a perfect air stagnation hazard given that the air will synopticly moving at least a little bit. but if some of the deeper valleys can have the boundary layer cut off from the main flow above the inversion like some of the model soundings say is possible, you think air quality advisories might have to be issued for Sunday and/or Monday, due to trapping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 The 12z and now the 0z Euro bring a low up the coast for next Sunday the 21st. The 0z run brings the low from the Carolina's up to the DelMarVA coast where it strengthens and then it starts to head east once it reaches the south Jersey coast. It brings over 1 inch of liquid precip to most of the eastern half of PA. Snow map shows near 1 foot for most folks between Harrisburg and State College. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 The 12z and now the 0z Euro bring a low up the coast for next Sunday the 21st. The 0z run brings the low from the Carolina's up to the DelMarVA coast where it strengthens and then it starts to head east once it reaches the south Jersey coast. It brings over 1 inch of liquid precip to most of the eastern half of PA. Snow map shows near 1 foot for most folks between Harrisburg and State College. Wow that 0z run was a thing of beauty for basically everyone in PA. But like all things at 180 hours, we must take specifics with a grain of salt. With that said, the Euro has consistently had a system in this December 20-22 timeframe pretty much since that timeframe has gotten in range. Can't really argue too much about the Euro's track record so far this season either, as it has been fairly decent at sniffing things out first. The GFS also has this system as well but weaker than the Euro.. but it's there (for now). I like the look of the pattern once the weak low on Tuesday washes out across the lower Lakes and brings back generally seasonal air. There still won't be a lot of cold back in the pattern yet, but there should be enough available that if we get a well tracked system from what should be an active southern branch.. it could deliver a sizable winter weather event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 CPC analog...20091220 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Didn't that storm screw the majority of us in favor of I-95? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lte5000 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Didn't that storm screw the majority of us in favor of I-95? I'm not hoping for an exact repeat of that storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Didn't that storm screw the majority of us in favor of I-95? that storm was the begining of what would be a season of very tight snow gradients. I ended up with 18" for that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 That wasn't the storm I was thinking of, I think. I remember that year being a series of very sharp cutoffs but I thought there was one that basically screwed everybody north of the line. That may have been later in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Apparently the new 12z Euro is a massive hit next weekend...anyone got maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Apparently the new 12z Euro is a massive hit next weekend...anyone got maps? It's a bomb. 6"+ for all PA except far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 My euro map isnt updating. Hows South west PA look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 My euro map isnt updating. Hows South west PA look? Snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Upgraded GFS shows the storm going out to sea, apparently. But at least it shows something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 EURO tends to over amplify east coast lows, plus there's really no 50/50 low so I'd expect this thing to trend towards a warmer solution in a few days. Plus the OP EURO is on it's own so far with such a dynamic presentation so it should be taken with a grain of salt. EDIT: Sat 12Z thru Sunday 12Z every 6 hours at BWI.....warm layer at 800/700mb. Sleet for I-81 S&E and rain for I-95. PRESSURE LEVELS SFC 1000 950 925 900 850 800 700 600 500SAT 12Z 20-DEC 0 -1 -3 -4 -4 -2 -2 -5 -10 -18SAT 18Z 20-DEC -1 -1 -5 -5 -4 -1 0 -4 -10 -17SUN 00Z 21-DEC -1 -1 -3 -3 -2 -1 1 -2 -10 -19SUN 06Z 21-DEC 0 0 -3 -4 -3 -1 1 -4 -12 -23SUN 12Z 21-DEC 0 0 -3 -5 -5 -4 -5 -9 -12 -22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Will be interested in this Thurs night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Will be interested in this Thurs night. But you know you wont, your interest started now. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Hate being close to the bullseye this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 EURO tends to over amplify east coast lows, plus there's really no 50/50 low so I'd expect this thing to trend towards a warmer solution in a few days. Plus the OP EURO is on it's own so far with such a dynamic presentation so it should be taken with a grain of salt. EDIT: Sat 12Z thru Sunday 12Z every 6 hours at BWI.....warm layer at 800/700mb. Sleet for I-81 S&E and rain for I-95. PRESSURE LEVELS SFC 1000 950 925 900 850 800 700 600 500 SAT 12Z 20-DEC 0 -1 -3 -4 -4 -2 -2 -5 -10 -18 SAT 18Z 20-DEC -1 -1 -5 -5 -4 -1 0 -4 -10 -17 SUN 00Z 21-DEC -1 -1 -3 -3 -2 -1 1 -2 -10 -19 SUN 06Z 21-DEC 0 0 -3 -4 -3 -1 1 -4 -12 -23 SUN 12Z 21-DEC 0 0 -3 -5 -5 -4 -5 -9 -12 -22 CTP seems to have the same thinking. THE GFS HAS A WEAKER AND WARMER CYCLONE MOVING OFF JUST TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF /AS IT OFTEN DOES/ IS FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER CYCLONE THAT WOULD CREATE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM THREAT FOR MOST OF THE AREA...SHOULD IT COME TO FRUITION. I was planning on heading down to Atlanta for break Saturday, but it looks like I'll be sticking around an extra day or two--if this event pans out. Hopefully we get more of a model consensus earlier than this last event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Euro ens in strong agreement with OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 from DT's facebook page https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/photos/pcb.788493791197881/788493434531250/?type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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