Dec 9-10 storm threat

[Damage In Tolland]

Is this similar to Feb 1983?  I remember a huge high over Ontario and Quebec.  The big warm-up started the next morning.  In SWCT the storm started in the evening...that day was in the teens with a strong NE wind.  Of course the syncopy between the storm and the high was better in 83, I think it was an Archambault with a decaying -nao.

That was  a Miller A which crushed the entire East coast

[Logan11]

Actually this area had an inch or less.  LOL   But I got 11" where I lived in in the mid HV.

That was  a Miller A which crushed the entire East coast

[SnowMan]

i hope you are joking

Of course lol

[tamarack]

That was  a Miller A which crushed the entire East coast

 

Except NNE.  Same for 12/92, lots of wind, little/no snow, while 125 miles SW folks were buried.  Not Buffalo-LES sharp cutoff, but still pretty abrupt.  But neither 83 nor 92 had been forecast to impact NNE, and so far this one is different.

[dryslot]

Verifications scores are one thing but when it comes to east coast cyclogenesis, I know what model to rely more on.

 

And it begins with E not G

[dryslot]

Last winter the Euro was not stellar

 

Its like a good hitter in BB going thru a slump, But when he comes out of it, Its the same good hitter

[Logan11]

1983  1"or less in ALB, 6" 25 miles south, 12" 45 miles south, 20" 90 miles south.. ...  That kind of cutoff. Aligned WSW to ENE.

Except NNE.  Same for 12/92, lots of wind, little/no snow, while 125 miles SW folks were buried.  Not Buffalo-LES sharp cutoff, but still pretty abrupt.  But neither 83 nor 92 had been forecast to impact NNE, and so far this one is different.

[jamesnichols89]

I think questions still remain with the overall involvement of the arctic jet stream, which remains bottled up over Canada.  The GFS and most models still want to phase the northern stream energy with the arctic jet energy that dives out of central Canada within the domain of the Polar Vortex, not associated with the Polar Vortex.  As well all know there is energy that rides around the various jet streams within the overall North American flow.  One is the Sub-tropical jet which infuses the moisture and energy from the Gulf of Mexico and Southwestern Atlantic Ocean into the overall system.  Second we have the northern stream which carries with it the overall polar/pacific energy which is the overall trough that ends up in the end driving through the system while the arctic jet energy that gets involved dives into the trough with the very cold air in the mid levels turning the initial rain event into a backside snow event which could pile up if given the right setup ie: the February 8/9th 2013 blizzard where Cape Cod got roughly 6-12" of snow after the initial changeover to rain in the middle of the storm.  I'm not saying this will be anywhere close to the magnitude of that blizzard, but the backside snows could be similar in nature.  Therefore we need to see the polar and arctic jet energies phase further southwest over the OH Valley, rather than over LK Ontario.

[It's Always Sunny]

I think questions still remain with the overall involvement of the arctic jet stream, which remains bottled up over Canada.  The GFS and most models still want to phase the northern stream energy with the arctic jet energy that dives out of central Canada within the domain of the Polar Vortex, not associated with the Polar Vortex.  As well all know there is energy that rides around the various jet streams within the overall North American flow.  One is the Sub-tropical jet which infuses the moisture and energy from the Gulf of Mexico and Southwestern Atlantic Ocean into the overall system.  Second we have the northern stream which carries with it the overall polar/pacific energy which is the overall trough that ends up in the end driving through the system while the arctic jet energy that gets involved dives into the trough with the very cold air in the mid levels turning the initial rain event into a backside snow event which could pile up if given the right setup ie: the February 8/9th 2013 blizzard where Cape Cod got roughly 6-12" of snow after the initial changeover to rain in the middle of the storm.  I'm not saying this will be anywhere close to the magnitude of that blizzard, but the backside snows could be similar in nature.  Therefore we need to see the polar and arctic jet energies phase further southwest over the OH Valley, rather than over LK Ontario.

Not at all. There was far more moisture on the backside of the blizzard which doesn't make these comparable. The vorticity was far more impressive as well during the blizzard.

[Ginx snewx]

Brett loves bananas

[jamesnichols89]

Not at all. The blizzard and this aren't even comparable. 

 

I'm not predicting 6-12" for the area, I'm just saying that is what the models are potentially showing especially if they are too far west with the surface low track.

[dryslot]

0z GFS looks like its going to dig the the northern stream s/w further south then 18z

[jamesnichols89]

Northern stream shortwave is rotating west of WA.

[jamesnichols89]

0z GFS looks like its going to dig the the northern stream s/w further south then 18z

 

I would seem to agree with you on that.

[It's Always Sunny]

I'm not predicting 6-12" for the area, I'm just saying that is what the models are potentially showing especially if they are too far west with the surface low track.

I didn't say you were calling 6-12 b/c we both know that won't happen but it's still apples to oranges imo.

[jamesnichols89]

I didn't say you were calling 6-12 b/c we both know that won't happen but it's still apples to oranges imo.

 

Not if the models were further east with the track of the surface low, it would be a colder solution, I don't think the coastal plain will escape without some rainfall, but maybe it could be a lot less than currently modeled.

[dendrite]

Not if the models were further east with the track of the surface low, it would be a colder solution, I don't think the coastal plain will escape without some rainfall, but maybe it could be a lot less than currently modeled.

Yeah...maybe you'll dryslot.

[jamesnichols89]

12z GFS will have the northern stream shortwave sampled enough to know its strength.

[jamesnichols89]

Yeah...maybe you'll dryslot.

 

Yeah maybe that's a possibility.

[dryslot]

Yeah...maybe you'll dryslot.

lol

[dendrite]

Congrats PF.

[jamesnichols89]

00z GFS digs the shortwave even further south than the 18z GFS over OH Valley.

[dryslot]

PF will be doing keg stands at the picnic table

[Jack66]

0z GFS at 90h looks like it is at the Benchmark or just inside

[dryslot]

00z GFS digs the shortwave even further south than the 18z GFS over OH Valley.

Wow

[jamesnichols89]

GFS is a bomb, not sure about winds at 925 or 850mb, but it seems like a warm track still.

[Ginx snewx]

So we get a BM to GOM run on the GFS and it's primarily rain from Dendrite SSE, nice

[SR Airglow]

Canadian lost the SNE front end idea from 12z, still much quicker though with light precip up to CNH at hour 78. Looks like it'll be another warm hugger.

[Logan11]

Th GFS is likely still trending toward the better models ....so probably not much point in analyzing the minutia of this run.

[SR Airglow]

Congrats Whiteface on the GGEM with 2', rest of NNE does well as well. Will post maps when ones I can post are out if I'm still up.