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Winter 2014-15 Banter Thread


Stormlover74

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Wonder if that SE ridge will be a mainstay this season. It really helped mucked things up in 06/07 and it's my worst case year this season.

 

The 18z gfs shows a worst case pattern where the cold dumps too far west and the SE ridge sticks around so we continue to get cutters and it would end up being the dreaded rain to very cold to rain pattern. I would like that Xmas storm to trend west and help setup a blocking pattern otherwise the SE ridge could screw up our pattern.

 

Ensembles and indices look very good so it's very likely the operational runs still aren't detecting realistic changes.

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Ughhhh... What a sleet spell mid flight! Still had thirteen inches. Only if...lol

 

The final touch in the Long Beach West End was the tidal surge coming in at midnight and finishing off much of what

was left from the morning. I thought that I was up in the Arctic as the tide raised the snowpack into mini icebergs

that refroze in irregular small patches when the temps dropped again.

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lol its one thing to explain to me to post my thoughts in the banter thread...its another to just delete my post and then delete the post asking what i did wrong...these forums are like nazi Germany and the mods including u are why new members dont join that often and post alot and expand the community here...u guys do an absolutely horrendous job lmao 

The funny part is the complete opposite is true. If anything we need MORE moderating. And more mets..

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Still disappointed that March 93 didn't take the BM track.

I'm too young to remember but I think the models did have a benchmark track several days out, keep in mind back then the Euro I think was only run once per day and had only been around 4 years, the ETA didn't exist yet so I think the only long rangers we had were the Euro, UKMET, AVN, and GEM and I don't know if either went beyond 96-120 hours. The ukmet I think nailed it as did the LFM which was in it's final months at the time.

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The funny part is the complete opposite is true. If anything we need MORE moderating. And more mets..

The Mets in the NYC forum don't post much as a whole, some I think read but rarely post. I a hardly ever here from April to September as summer weather generally doesn't interest me, I sometimes don't log onto the board the entire summer

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And that 1 whole degree to our  Dec average . I believe 2 days later the guys on the N shore in Suffolk had like a 30 minute white out  with a squall if I am not mistaken .

 

Yes we did...snow fell at the rate of 5 inches per hour for 12 minutes...depositing a quick inch.  One of the most intense snow squalls since the February 2013 blizzard.

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I'm too young to remember but I think the models did have a benchmark track several days out, keep in mind back then the Euro I think was only run once per day and had only been around 4 years, the ETA didn't exist yet so I think the only long rangers we had were the Euro, UKMET, AVN, and GEM and I don't know if either went beyond 96-120 hours. The ukmet I think nailed it as did the LFM which was in it's final months at the time.

 

Most of the models were taking it into New Hampshire, I think...towards the end that is...which was close to right.

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Most of the models were taking it into New Hampshire, I think...towards the end that is...which was close to right.

I know it was a historic benchmark because it was the first ever major storm the models really caught 5 days out and more or less got right, it's funny how only 20 years ago a 5 day forecast was like a 12 day forecast now

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I know it was a historic benchmark because it was the first ever major storm the models really caught 5 days out and more or less got right, it's funny how only 20 years ago a 5 day forecast was like a 12 day forecast now

 

The LFM nailed the Blizzard of 78 from 4 days out, but the public was skeptical because it missed badly on the Jan 20th MECS.  There were thousands stranded trying to get home early from work because here on LI we were hit with a virtual whiteout for nearly 2 hours early that Monday afternoon  I remember measuring 7" between 1-3pm

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not even close city had one foot between 5 a.m. And noon and. I would give up a lot to have had it continue as all snow, quite certain we would have topped 30 inches. Was amazing while it lasted but I was dying as the temperature was 21 with heavy sleet for 3 hours

 

It was very close to being mostly snow...I think an 80 mile shift east and we would have had it...some places just west of NYC never really went over to plain rain.

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It was very close to being mostly snow...I think an 80 mile shift east and we would have had it...some places just west of NYC never really went over to plain rain.

I dont remember any plain rain in Bloomfield, eleven miles west of the city. Just heavy sleet that changed in morning hours and lasted a good portion of the day. If i recall correctly...

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not even close city had one foot between 5 a.m. And noon and. I would give up a lot to have had it continue as all snow, quite certain we would have topped 30 inches. Was amazing while it lasted but I was dying as the temperature was 21 with heavy sleet for 3 hours

 

The changeover on western Long Island took place around 2:00 PM...the storm produced about 10 inches of snow in that area.

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I dont remember any plain rain in Bloomfield, eleven miles west of the city. Just heavy sleet that changed in morning hours and lasted a good portion of the day. If i recall correctly...

We got rain but it was fairly light as we were mostly dry slotted by evening. Had about 2-3" of snow with the wraparound after midnight

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It was very close to being mostly snow...I think an 80 mile shift east and we would have had it...some places just west of NYC never really went over to plain rain.

I was up for every second of that storm it was a wall of snow from the start and when the switch over occurred it went from two inches an hour to equally heavy sleet and it never change to rain & ee dry slaughted for a long time and sometime around 1 to 3 a.m. Light snow started but the forecast was for another 4 to 8 inches on on the wings if t h e forsaken CCB but, of course as usual ,that didn't happen. none the less,it was a beautiful storm.
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I was up for every second of that storm it was a wall of snow from the start and when the switch over occurred it went from two inches an hour to equally heavy sleet and it never change to rain & ee dry slaughted for a long time and sometime around 1 to 3 a.m. Light snow started but the forecast was for another 4 to 8 inches on on the wings if t h e forsaken CCB but, of course as usual ,that didn't happen. none the less,it was a beautiful storm.

 

No matter how powerful the storm...it is hard to get wrap around moisture when air is sinking down a mountain chain.

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I very specifically recall my climatology professor (a great prof, btw) at the university I went to (one of them) commenting on how there was "5 inches of wrap around snow being printed out by the computers"...and me saying, "wrap around snow" * always* fails to materialize around here."  When class resumed after the storm...she noted that I had been right. 

 

Yeah, NYC cannot get wraparound, even in a classic vertically stacked system if the low track goes overheard or just west...it has to track at the very least across ERN LI and have a NE trajectory from there on out in order to ensure the wind flow behind it is more N or NNE not the downslope flow you mentioned.  The models now are good enough that inside 3-4 days they do not show wraparound snows for this area on lows taking a track overhead.  The 93 blizzard likely would not have produced good backend snows even if it tracked east because it was just moving too fast.

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I dont remember any plain rain in Bloomfield, eleven miles west of the city. Just heavy sleet that changed in morning hours and lasted a good portion of the day. If i recall correctly...

I was living in Bloomfield back in 93'. I fondly remember picking my wife up from work at noontime. It was an absolute whiteout. 12 inches fell, then turned into a heavy wind driven sleet for several hours. If it hadn't changed over, would of been an easy 2 footer.

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