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Winter Pattern Discussion 2014-2015 (December/January)


Carvers Gap

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Up until the last week the warming at 10mb over the pole was relegated to the Pacific side of things. In the last week there has been strong warming on the Atlantic side of things too. If you could see the loop you would likely be impressed.

10mb is just over 100k feet, so it's WAY up there, but this development on the Atlantic side of things could be the precursor to the shake up of the AO.

Time will tell, but some of the American ensemble modeling is seeing the demise if the strongly + AO as we head into the last week or so of January and this fits with a late winter weak or warm neutral El Niño.

Overall, I remain optimistic for the winter. Why not, it's not like we can change any of it.....lol.

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Up until the last week the warming at 10mb over the pole was relegated to the Pacific side of things. In the last week there has been strong warming on the Atlantic side of things too. If you could see the loop you would likely be impressed.

10mb is just over 100k feet, so it's WAY up there, but this development on the Atlantic side of things could be the precursor to the shake up of the AO.

Time will tell, but some of the American ensemble modeling is seeing the demise if the strongly + AO as we head into the last week or so of January and this fits with a late winter weak or warm neutral El Niño.

Overall, I remain optimistic for the winter. Why not, it's not like we can change any of it.....lol.

CPC agrees. Wowza. In...the...tank!

post-769-0-46941600-1420917674_thumb.jpg

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This area could be the best spot to see something wintry next week, outside the CAD regions.  I talk a bit about that, if y'all want to watch the video.. If not, no worries.  Maybe like my FB if you want as well please..

 

Update on the rest of your weekend weather, when will the rain arrive, and how cold?  PLUS, could something wintry be brewing for **PORTIONS** of the SE next week?  Watch the video for more details on YOUR forecast.  Thanks for watching and please hit the invite button on my page to invite  your Facebook friends, I really appreciate it!  Have a great day.  -Chris  

 

https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons

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At least something interesting, albeit on the light side, to follow...

 

 

FXUS64 KMRX 102003
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
303 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL KEEP
WINDS LIGHT AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM...BECOMING OVERCAST BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. DEWPOINTS WILL FINALLY RISE IN TO THE DOUBLE DIGITS AS
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED IN TO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MOST OF
SUNDAY. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND
THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN ARRIVING AFTER 7 PM SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH
THAT...TRIED TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE LATE SUNDAY PERIOD.

TONIGHT...HAVE RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO IN RESPONSE
TO TODAYS INCREASED TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL EXPECT THE
TEMPERATURES TO BE ON AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. SUNDAYS
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAN THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK...BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY.
INITIALLY...WE HAVE A PROLONGED COLD RAIN EVENT WITH LIKELY OR
CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. POPS DROP TO CHANCE-TYPE
VALUES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...COLD AIR WILL BE
ENCROACHING BACK INTO THE PICTURE FROM THE NORTH...THUS THERE WILL
BE BRIEF STRETCHES FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
WHEN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR OVER THE PLATEAU...NORTHERN
VALLEY...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST. AS A SHORTWAVE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER WED INTO THURSDAY...THE
COOLING TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALOFT MAY PERMIT CHANGE FROM ZR- TO S-.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY.
..WITH FAIR WEATHER FRI AND SAT. SATURDAY MIGHT EVEN
DARE TO BE A PRETTY DAY.

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I think after the next ten days...it's make or break time for winter.  If the models show now winter threats(as they have done so for all of December and the first half of January) by say Jan 25th, time to mail it in....I have stated and continue to state that winter probably will show the last week of January and continue through a good portion of February.  So, I still think we get winter.  The models have been insistent that the next ten days or so will be very, very vanilla.  It's after that where the AO appears to be ready to tank.  Finally, it looks like cold air is going to make it southeastward.  However, if the models are wrong like they were about the late December cold snap that never happened, the game is up.  Right now though, I would say there is roughly a 75% chance things get pretty dicey.

 

Seems like Nino climo is just due to take over.  The CPC ensembles show a potentially, very negative AO by late month.  It is my opinion with the southern stream so active that the cold will spread eastward quite quickly once it flips.  In other words, it won't stay in the west no matter what the Euro at some point will show.  Late January and February seem to be like the climo money time for Ninos in the Tennessee Valley.  I see no reason up to this point to think otherwise.  Sure, we could draw a bad card like I mentioned in the first paragraph.  However, this current cold spell should serve as a reminder that this winter can turn on a dime.  I have been bearish this winter due to the teleconnection indices.  If CPC continues to show a -AO, I will be more bullish with each passing day...no matter what the models say.  Those indices were correct in predicting last January's flip to cold.  There are some good signs out there now that things are about to get cold and stormy.  But first we need to get through the "thaw" of the next ten days.  After that, I think we will know the final hand that winter has dealt us.

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MRX has issued a SWS about possible ZR and freezing fog in some areas by Tuesday morning. 

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
317 AM EST MON JAN 12 2015

TNZ012>018-035>037-041-043>047-067-072-074-081-082-098-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-122000-
SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-
MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-
MARION-LEE-WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEIDA...LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...
SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...BRISTOL...MOUNTAIN CITY...
WARTBURG...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...MAYNARDVILLE...COSBY...
CEDAR CREEK...JOHNSON CITY...ERWIN...ELIZABETHTON...
ROAN MOUNTAIN...KINGSTON...CADES COVE...GATLINBURG...DUNLAP...
PIKEVILLE...JASPER...JONESVILLE...WISE...NORTON...GATE CITY...
LEBANON...ABINGDON
317 AM EST MON JAN 12 2015

...LIGHT ICING POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAPERING OFF LATER TONIGHT. A COLDER
AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING BY EARLY TUESDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING. WET SURFACE WILL
BEGIN TO FREEZE.

FREEZING IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON ELEVATED SURFACE SUCH A
TREES...ROOF TOPS AND POWER LINES. SOME ICING IS POSSIBLE ON
ROADWAYS AND DRIVING MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS. |

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The Euro Ens has been consistent in rebuilding the Alaskan ridge the last week of January which was also supported by the last run on the weeklies....It is going to get cold again but will we get a favorble configuration for a storm in the south....that is the part that is not clear.

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I think after the next ten days...it's make or break time for winter.  If the models show now winter threats(as they have done so for all of December and the first half of January) by say Jan 25th, time to mail it in....I have stated and continue to state that winter probably will show the last week of January and continue through a good portion of February.  So, I still think we get winter.  The models have been insistent that the next ten days or so will be very, very vanilla.  It's after that where the AO appears to be ready to tank.  Finally, it looks like cold air is going to make it southeastward.  However, if the models are wrong like they were about the late December cold snap that never happened, the game is up.  Right now though, I would say there is roughly a 75% chance things get pretty dicey.

 

Seems like Nino climo is just due to take over.  The CPC ensembles show a potentially, very negative AO by late month.  It is my opinion with the southern stream so active that the cold will spread eastward quite quickly once it flips.  In other words, it won't stay in the west no matter what the Euro at some point will show.  Late January and February seem to be like the climo money time for Ninos in the Tennessee Valley.  I see no reason up to this point to think otherwise.  Sure, we could draw a bad card like I mentioned in the first paragraph.  However, this current cold spell should serve as a reminder that this winter can turn on a dime.  I have been bearish this winter due to the teleconnection indices.  If CPC continues to show a -AO, I will be more bullish with each passing day...no matter what the models say.  Those indices were correct in predicting last January's flip to cold.  There are some good signs out there now that things are about to get cold and stormy.  But first we need to get through the "thaw" of the next ten days.  After that, I think we will know the final hand that winter has dealt us.

 

I appreciate your view point but disagree about giving up by January 25th.  The models haven't impressed me with an ability to see much beyond a week or so.  Late January to late February is prime time climo for this area.  There is no way I'd give up just when we're entering that sweet spot.  February 25th?  Maybe.  ;)

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I appreciate your view point but disagree about giving up by January 25th. The models haven't impressed me with an ability to see much beyond a week or so. Late January to late February is prime time climo for this area. There is no way I'd give up just when we're entering that sweet spot. February 25th? Maybe. ;)

I agree. I don't see why anyone would punt a whole month especially during prime climo.
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I know the models have burned us a bunch this year, but regardless of their specific details, the overall pattern is looking really promising. I consider January 15th to February 15th the heart of winter in East Tennessee. It's our coldest and snowiest 30 days of winter. The heart is looking very primed this year. We had a minor event the last 24 hours. We may have another one tomorrow. We may have another Sunday night. Then pretty much all the models currently have a big storm coming in around 7-8 days. With the GFS being pretty much perfect for us. Keep in mind too, that this is in the high resolution timeframe for the new GFS.  Exciting possibilities with potential large snow followed by extreme cold. Hopefully this solution gets reeled in and actually comes to pass.

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Still long range, yes, but the last week of January on all the major globals has my hopes up for the first time this winter. The pattern looks very wintry! Perhaps a good sign for February? :D

Good post. I see one of two things happening in days 7+ to day 40. Either we finally flip the AO and have wintry threats coming, or the pattern persists and we oscillate between periods of cold/very cold and dry, followed by brief warmups with rain.

There are good signs, but no real way to know for sure at this point.... Either way, what lies ahead of us is the best look we have gotten all winter.

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