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Thanksgiving Eve SECS/MECS Discussion II


gkrangers

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The inflated WxBell maps have 1-2" for Brooklyn, 2-4" north of the BQE. 4-6" NW of the NJ TPK, 3-5" for the immediate NW burbs. 6-8" for the I-80 area and NE Bergen County, NJ. 9-14" for the higher elevations of northern Morris, Western Passaic, most of Rockland and Westchester Counties and then eastward into CT.

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The inflated WxBell maps have 1-2" for Brooklyn, 2-4" north of the BQE. 4-6" NW of the NJ TPK, 3-5" for the immediate NW burbs. 6-8" for the I-80 area and NE Bergen County, NJ. 9-14" for the higher elevations of northern Morris, Western Passaic, most of Rockland and Westchester Counties and then eastward into CT.

I am southern tip of Morris County, and border of somerset and union... that little piece at the bottom of morris county... I can never figure out the NWS because I am split at the bottom. I usually take a bit of each forecast.

 

Care to share what I am looking at? Thanks!

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I am southern tip of Morris County, and border of somerset and union... that little piece at the bottom of morris county... I can never figure out the NWS because I am split at the bottom. I usually take a bit of each forecast.

 

Care to share what I am looking at? Thanks!

You're in a warning yet the point and click forecast says rain all day and Mt holly maps show you 2-4 so good luck with that  :wacko:

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I'd say when they update the maps you're area's a lock for 4+. You're probably about 250-300 feet right?

Precisely. 265-270 to be exact.

 

From Rt 22, you come up all the hills to enter warren/berkely heights etc.

 

For years, rt 22 can have no snow and we have 3-4 inches, if they have 3-4 inches we have 6-8. Not everytime, but storms like this where the gradient can be crazy this is what happens. I am only about 10-12 minutes from Rt 22. But when you go up in elevation it makes a difference. When you go up any of the big hills (like Washington Rock for example). It will change to sleet/snow midway, and then be snow at the top.

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I am southern tip of Morris County, and border of somerset and union... that little piece at the bottom of morris county... I can never figure out the NWS because I am split at the bottom. I usually take a bit of each forecast.

 

Care to share what I am looking at? Thanks!

6-8", that's what I refer to as the  I-80 area.

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The Euro may be a little too warm at the surface but the sloppy inch or two it shows for eastern parts of NYC and western LI is probably right. I'd say 2-5" for most of NYC and then 6"+ starting in western Bergen, Passaic, Morris, etc. Maybe we can squeeze out a miracle down here if the mid levels stay cool and the surface drops down to 33-34, but I wouldn't count on that at all. Ratios will be awful as well, so the most I could possibly see down along the coast is 3-4". More than an inch and I'll be thrilled.

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IsentropicLift (yanksfan).....You might not have the level of meteorological knowledge compared to the mets and some of the other hobbyists on these forums, but as another said.....it is a good thing that someone does the play by plays of these models fairly consistently during storms. Some of the swaying during model interpretations quite honestly has annoyed me at times, but you do a better job than many others could, myself included. KUDOS!!

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The Euro may be a little too warm at the surface but the sloppy inch or two it shows for eastern parts of NYC and western LI is probably right. I'd say 2-5" for most of NYC and then 6"+ starting in western Bergen, Passaic, Morris, etc. Maybe we can squeeze out a miracle down here if the mid levels stay cool and the surface drops down to 33-34, but I wouldn't count on that at all. Ratios will be awful as well, so the most I could possibly see down along the coast is 3-4". More than an inch and I'll be thrilled.

The caveat will be where heavy banding sets up. It could rain/taint all day and change to heavy wet snow for only 2-3 hours and pick up a quick 4-6" especially at night. Meanwhile just west of there the snow may be lighter and amounts lower despite cooler temps

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The caveat will be where heavy banding sets up. It could rain/taint all day and change to heavy wet snow for only 2-3 hours and pick up a quick 4-6" especially at night. Meanwhile just west of there the snow may be lighter and amounts lower despite cooler temps

agree, something to watch for later tomorrow

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RGEM really shows some banding along 95. One side of the town would be snow, other side would be rain. Dynamics at play.

That happened to my buddy right off 95 by amboy area.

 

His neighbor on his northwest side of the development had snow and like 2-3 inches on the lawn and sidewalk, and the houses by the exit on the south side had rain.

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The models are doing a poor job on dewpoints.  GFS running about 7F too warm and NAM/RGEM about 10F too warm.

 

They are running about 2F too cool on current temps.

 

To me this makes their temp forecasts as the precip. begins tomorrow suspect.

Dews to high and temps a bit too warm mean????  Expecting lower temps after precip starts at the surface?

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Also, all models are too slow to deepen the sfc low in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  Based on buoy reports, the low is at 1010 mb currently.  

 

The 6z GFS and NAM had it about 1013 and 1015 mb, respectively.  I only have the Euro in 4 mb intervals, but the 0Z run had the low around 1014 mb.

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The model errors on dewpoints are a bigger issue - they're busting 7-10F too warm on dewpoints, but only ~2F too cool on temps.

 

JConsor - referring to your post about temps/dews.  What will be the biggest monkey wrench potentially - the drier than modeled air or the warmer than modeled air?  Or is it a wash?

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Yep. Hello neighbor

I lived there when it was Passaic Township.  You guys are in the "Florida" of Morris Co as I am now in the "Florida" of NJ!  My grandparents lived in Scotch Plains and i recall gradient storms where we doubled their snows in Millington.  I also remember northern Morris killing us in totals. 

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