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Thanksgiving Eve SECS/MECS Discussion II


gkrangers

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From the top of the Empire State Building, the snowmen being built "North and West" of NYC might be seen tomorrow.  I expect a slushy 1/2 to 1 inch on grass and car tops in NYC proper, and nothing east of the Clearview EXPY.  15 miles west and north of NYC will start the 4" plus amounts. I think the 3-4 hour 35-40 mph wind gusts will be more interesting over Suffolk Cty. Swaying traffic lights on the wire spans advisory for Suffolk.  NYC can never do the swaying lights as well, with its standardized double guy wire traffic mast arm fixtures everywhere.  This is basically NYC signal per pic below.

 

5207154148_7188954c6a_z.jpg

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The bust potential at least is for less snow and more mixed or rain and not the other way given such a warm antecedent airmass and lack of a real polar high or upsteam cold.

Upton most likely knows about this. Temp at 700mb doesn't look bad at all. Rates can overcome the boundary layer. I think many people are getting too worried about this for no reason. If someone has to worry, it should be my area and to the east.

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..for the few of us out here on E LI..still expecting all rain..

There are too many things going against the bulk of L.I.seeing any appreciable snow out of this. The warm tongue aloft combined with no antecedent cold air at the surface and no real arctic air to follow, not to mention the warm late Nov. SST's is just too much to overcome with dynamic cooling  I would look for plain rain until about sunset with some wet flakes mixing in for a few hours, then MAYBE a period of all snow to slush things up a bit before it ends

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The BL warmed up also on the soundings from yesterday. The 60 degree readings this morning

were not forecast yesterday. Check out the big NAM temperature miss from 12z yesterday.

 

CENTRAL PARK CLOUDY 61 40 45 VRB5

 

attachicon.giff24.gif

been saying this all morning, models are busting huge too warm, this starts off as rain in NYC / Long Island / and even close areas to the NW with temps in the low 40s

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There are too many things going against the bulk of L.I.seeing any appreciable snow out of this. The warm tongue aloft combined with no antecedent cold air at the surface and no real arctic air to follow, not to mention the warm late Nov. SST's is just too much to overcome with dynamic cooling I would look for plain rain until about sunset with some wet flakes mixing in for a few hours, then MAYBE a period of all snow to slush things up a bit before it ends

IMO thats a better forecast, the airmass isnt exactly ideal and depending on heavy rates is playing with fire 1" or less for me would be an accomplishment with this storm
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Its funny how most pro mets who were going low are now going much higher like Steve D and DT and some who were higher are backing off

Lol I've noticed that. Funny that once the models start showing this more as a N and W snow storm as they pick up new info, the ones saying that it would be mainly a N and W snowstorm are saying more snow to the coast

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The BL warmed up also on the soundings from yesterday. The 60 degree readings this morning

were not forecast yesterday. Check out the big NAM temperature miss from 12z yesterday.

 

CENTRAL PARK CLOUDY 61 40 45 VRB5

 

attachicon.giff24.gif

The  Euro has always been a few hours slower . Here is yesterdays 12z for the same time period.

Current temps Brooklyn 56 Colts Neck 55 . Think the Euro is close at every other station .

 

59 at the park now- winds out of the NW . Think the difference is marginal .

post-7472-0-43503700-1416920980_thumb.pn

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I think many people are having low expectations for this storm. Yes it's a warm airmass but seeing the Euro cool off with the 700mb temp is a great sign.

I still think we get 2-3" or so out of this right to the city, however it really seems that more is unlikely. The models were clearly cooler yesterday and are picking up on some additional warmer air now closer to the event. I'd be surprised if the euro doesn't show this as well, along with the 12z GFS and RGEM. It's November and although climatology doesn't always "win", it ends up usually being part of the final outcome even if it wasn't part of the model's initial thoughts. This storm is definitely not a dud, but to me it has all the makings of a "N and W quick hitting thump snowstorm"

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