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weathafella

December-winter is finally here!

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Yeah, it still looks like crap. I think the chances of a white Christmas are slim at the moment

 

I would say below climo for sure. Nice to see a +PNA/-NAO pattern developing around and just after Christmas. Hopefully that delivers. 

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Both the op GFS and op Euro through D10 have no measurable snow in SNE. Not exactly a good sign.

Does that really matter? Yesterday they showed a blizzard day 10. There's some ensemble support. At this point, that's where you should be focused

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I would say below climo for sure. Nice to see a +PNA/-NAO pattern developing around and just after Christmas. Hopefully that delivers.

I agree, and climo isn't all that great to begin with in areas especially along the coast.

It may be easier to swallow if a favorable pattern is imminent around that time. Everyone wants a white Christmas, but if the pattern looks real good right after. I can live with that

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Yeah, it still looks like crap. I think the chances of a white Christmas are slim at the moment

Meanwhile some people think it's our best chance of a white christmas in years

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Nope. Just flakes for you guys up north. Just enough to keep the wintry vibe going.

 

Pretty moisture starved almost a dry FROPA, Maybe just flakes in the air

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I believe there was weenie snow Christmas Day either last year or the year before. It didn't accumulate to anything plowable, but snow in the air on Christmas Day is plenty festive IMO.

Christmas 2012. We got like a half inch of slop here anyway. Very marginal, but was nice too see.

I dont think that officially gets counted as a white Christmas, but its possible some places saw enough for it to be official.

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I think the last white Christmas was what.....2010?

 

For my area:

 

2013 - Coating (we had 0.1" the previous day)

2012 - 0.5" which rounds up to 1" for snow depth

2011 - Nothing

2010 - 1" (it snowed a little bit the previous three days)

 

Over the past 30 years 54% have had 1"+ and 72% have had a trace+.

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That's a strong s/w diving into the Plains. It looks like a cold rain Tuesday Night.

It sure is, but without any blocking there is nothing preventing it from amplifying up into the GL/NY.

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There's actually some transient confluence to help this not be a cutter, verbatim. Whether or not this holds up is to be determined. As is though, its an interior snowfall.

Still talking about day 9 op runs so grain of salt and a bag of chips.

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