jamesnichols89 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 At hour 120 the 18z GFS has a -10 to -15C airmass over Ontario, Canada. That's plenty cold enough for snowfall on the coast to combat the above normal SSTs. There has to be a period of rapid cyclogenesis for the surface low with that much H5 energy in the northern stream. Something has to give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Yeah on an inverted trough setup or an unlikely perfect sequence of phasing. Nobody is saying its impossible to snow on the coast for this threat, but just that it is extremely unlikely. The coast typically doesn't get good events like that. Sure we do, Jan 05, Feb 99, Dec 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 I know Will, cautious attitude serves best in this circumstance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Sure we do, Jan 05, Feb 99, Dec 10 Those events look nothing like the current setup. Do you realize that the airmass ahead of January 2005 produced below zero readings on the cape? Not only that, you had an extremely well-defined northern stream shortwave on an impressive amplifying western ridge plowing SE into that airmass. Feb '99 was a retro storm backing in with still a better airmass than this one. Ditto dec 20-21, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Those events look nothing like the current setup. Do you realize that the airmass ahead of January 2005 produced below zero readings on the cape? Not only that, you had an extremely well-defined northern stream shortwave on an impressive amplifying western ridge plowing SE into that airmass. Feb '99 was a retro storm backing in with still a better airmass than this one. Ditto dec 20-21, 2010 Those were extreme examples. But the airmass behind this clipper will be in the -10C to 15C at 850mb according to the GFS. THat is plenty cold enough for snowfall on the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Euro ensembles have a pretty strong signal for the 12/21 threat, but the airmass could be an issue. The ensembles are almost trying to retro the 12/18 storm back toward Nova Scotia which backs in some snow...psuedo inverted trough. I hate that word.......lol, Models hinting at maybe a little back door here saturday/saturday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Those were extreme examples. But the airmass behind this clipper will be in the -10C to 15C at 850mb according to the GFS. THat is plenty cold enough for snowfall on the Cape. A lot of storms have cold airmasses behind them. How many produce snowfall on the cape? I'm not really sure what you are trying to hype up about this threat. I mean perhaps there could be some OES on the backside if things lined up or an inverted trough. But let's not go throwing around major cape snowstorm analogs with this. They aren't comparable. Perhaps this will look more favorable in future runs but as of now, I'm not buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 january 2005 had a negative nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I hate that word.......lol, Models hinting at maybe a little back door here saturday/saturday nighthmm,that would be retro snow no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Well Hopefully the weeklies are right with a nice PV sitting NE of ME for those guys up there worried about temps. Instead they'll be dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 hmm,that would be retro snow no? No, Departing low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Well Hopefully the weeklies are right with a nice PV sitting NE of ME for those guys up there worried about temps. Instead they'll be dry. Yeah seeing they have been real stellar so far, Temps are the last worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Yeah seeing they have been real stellar so far, Temps are the last worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Which weeks? 3-4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Which weeks? 3-4? Week 4. It had split flow anyways..it wouldn't be cold and dry. Just having some fun with those close to tying a noose today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Week 4. It had split flow anyways..it wouldn't be cold and dry. Just having some fun with those close to tying a noose today. I could deal with that, But no noose tying here, I have been pretty content so far what has fallen early on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 january 2005 had a negative nao Umm no it didn't, look at the H5 setup, there was a low over the northern Hudson Bay, Canada and a ridge east of Greenland, no ridging west of Greenland or over Greenland, no -NAO, plus the statistics of the CPC has this period as all positive NAO, but there was a giant PNA positive spike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Umm no it didn't, look at the H5 setup, there was a low over the northern Hudson Bay, Canada and a ridge east of Greenland, no ridging west of Greenland or over Greenland, no -NAO, plus the statistics of the CPC has this period as all positive NAO, but there was a giant PNA positive spike The January blizzard was an Archambault event, which flipped the NAO negative. Most of the month was postive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Which weeks? 3-4?-EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 The January blizzard was an Archambault event, which flipped the NAO negative. Most of the month was postive. This is beyond my expertise, but I feel like a nice storm or two could throw enough heat flux towards Greenland to help flip it at the end of the month. You can almost see signs of it on the ensembles. It's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Really, my bad, I thought it was positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Scott the GFS has a QPF bullseye of 3.5" over the Atlantic Ocean, if the H5 low closes off sooner than modeled and goes negatively tilted first over NY state, we could see this bullseye make it further west ever so slightly, where its just offshore within 2 days time. Just something to watch carefully, as I see this solution become big time in the future given the overall energy associated with the H5 northern stream trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Sure we do, Jan 05, Feb 99, Dec 10 Three events you named over a span of 11 years? Come on. Your grasping at straws for an inverted trof several days out when modeling has trouble handling inverted trofs same day of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 The erring on the side of caution would suffice in the next 48 hours, but afterwards, the disturbances in question should be sampled well enough for a future solution to come to fruition. Err on the side of explosive with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 The erring on the side of caution would suffice in the next 48 hours, but afterwards, the disturbances in question should be sampled well enough for a future solution to come to fruition. Err on the side of explosive with this setup.You're gonna be explosively disappointed disecting runs as much as you are this early. Worry about the big picture first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I think anything before 12/25 or so is likely going inland, there is a chance for sure the timing is spot on and a previous system off Newfoundland acts as a 50/50 but I would not bet on that inside 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Just a couple of storms lined up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Just a couple of storms lined up Please let one of those give SNE a good dose of snow, minus the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nwbostonwx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Sorry, the northern stream disturbance comes ashore British Columbia near hour 30. You're obsessed man with this "potential", chill out, have a, brew and relax, We'll see something much better between Christmas and new years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Dry roads, been a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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