MJO812 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I wonder if this run is overamped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I like the GFS look the best right now. Especially with the NAM still over Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 WX BELL will prob only going to work 30 miles N and W where there is true 10 to 1 . It has as more snow at KNYC and EWR than at 0z and that`s wrong . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Would not be surprised to see some subtle variations in track, but becoming clearer about a big storm taking shape. Impressive to see the moisture feed and precipitable water it will have to work with. Agree with the concerns about the blocking not being there. Will be key to see where the baroclinic zone sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Is the 12z Parallel GFS still OTS? If so, have to wonder if the "new" GFS is going to suck big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Sv snow maps have 2-4 for I-80 north and 4-8 from high point nj - north Nothing for eastern Pa/nj south of 80/NYC metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The high resolution Euro shows exactly what I'm talking about. If not a paste-bomb west of EWR, it's very close to being one. At 84 hours in Northeast NJ (using the sw to ne trajectory from Union to Bergen counties as an example) the 925mb temperatures at -2, 850mb temperatures are -2, and 700mb temperatures have just risen from -4 to +2. So there is mid level taint occurring above cold air that is rooted nearer to the surface. That can be overcome with heavy, dynamic precipitation in some areas which is what the Euro is showing. Closer to the coast, that is not possible because the warm layer is more expansive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I like the GFS look the best right now. Especially with the NAM still over Bermuda.What a horrible post, using the long range NAM to back your agenda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I wonder if this run is overamped Why ? Tom prob right . The pattern gona favor a tucked in solution . Doesn't mean acc snow will not fall at EWR and KNYC . Its just a snowstorm well NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 WX BELL will prob only going to work 30 miles N and W where there is true 10 to 1 . It has as more snow at KNYC and EWR than at 0z and that`s wrong . Look at dynamic cooling on high resolution Euro maps. Very impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 This run looks terrible for us coast people that want some snow out of this. It figures, just when we think the Euro will trend east, it trends even further west. Remember folks, last year models were terrible to look at 48 hours out, so this solution could obviously change in either way. Wouldn't be shocked to see a trend east or west by the time the 18z models come in. Also, I wonder if this solution (west of the benchmark) is actually right. That might be telling to how the models work the rest of the winter. Also, as many of you mentioned, this is the first test of the new Parallel GFS. If we don't get anything out of this and models trend east the rest of the way, the parallel will look great. Otherwise, the Parallel will look terrible. But so far, at least for us coastal people, the GFS looks the best so far. For the very interior people, I'd say the Euro looks the best. Just my insight. But I think tonight's 0z models and tomorrow's models will be very telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The high resolution Euro shows exactly what I'm talking about. If not a paste-bomb west of EWR, it's very close to being one. At 84 hours in Northeast NJ (using the sw to ne trajectory from Union to Bergen counties as an example) the 925mb temperatures at -2, 850mb temperatures are -2, and 700mb temperatures have just risen from -4 to +2. So there is mid level taint occurring above cold air that is rooted nearer to the surface. That can be overcome with heavy, dynamic precipitation in some areas which is what the Euro is showing. Closer to the coast, that is not possible because the warm layer is more expansive. A lot of people are talking about the western suburbs, but how does this look on Mt Zucker? Snow to rain for Westchester? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I wonder if this run is overampedIt may not be done, it's all contingent on the trailing shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 With a not so good synoptic setup, I do fear that some models may trend NW as we get closer to the event, but the EURO stands alone thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 If that run verified the whining on here would reach unbearable proportions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Lol coming from you...We know what the Nams Biases are/have been. There is no way it phases like the Euro has it. The ridge is too strong.I guess you know nothing then, it has nothing to do with the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The high resolution Euro shows exactly what I'm talking about. If not a paste-bomb west of EWR, it's very close to being one. At 84 hours in Northeast NJ (using the sw to ne trajectory from Union to Bergen counties as an example) the 925mb temperatures at -2, 850mb temperatures are -2, and 700mb temperatures have just risen from -4 to +2. So there is mid level taint occurring above cold air that is rooted nearer to the surface. That can be overcome with heavy, dynamic precipitation in some areas which is what the Euro is showing. Closer to the coast, that is not possible because the warm layer is more expansive. 78 AND 84 are snow at KNYC and EWR . Anyone east of JFK and the GSP it`s really going to be hard to see much more than some snow past hr 78 The surface never gets above 34 at the park and falls after hr 84 . Reminds me of Feb 2010 once to the Hudson it`s snow . ( not to those totals ) . This storm has it`s foot on the gas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The high resolution Euro shows exactly what I'm talking about. If not a paste-bomb west of EWR, it's very close to being one. At 84 hours in Northeast NJ (using the sw to ne trajectory from Union to Bergen counties as an example) the 925mb temperatures at -2, 850mb temperatures are -2, and 700mb temperatures have just risen from -4 to +2. So there is mid level taint occurring above cold air that is rooted nearer to the surface. That can be overcome with heavy, dynamic precipitation in some areas which is what the Euro is showing. Closer to the coast, that is not possible because the warm layer is more expansive. Thanks for the insight and that will be a key to watch in the next few runs. Sitting in central Union County here I fear I might be on the battle lines for this one in regards to the warm layer/surface (win some/lose some). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 With a not so good synoptic setup, I do fear that some models may trend NW as we get closer to the event, but the EURO stands alone thus far Agreed. I think that we will end up with a track between the 12z GFS and 0z EURO, but we still have a lot of time here, and a 50 mile shift west or east will have huge implications for the I-95 crew. Strength of the system will also be important as that will make the difference in how quickly we could get a changeover to back end snow (as shown by the crazy dynamics on the 12z EURO). Very tricky system, but agreeing with your point that the synoptic setup does not favor a snowier solution for our immediate area, I know it's a vastly overused term in this forum but we really do have to thread the needle with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobscott Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Earthlight, Do you think the amplification is done or will we see this trend more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 78 AND 84 are snow at KNYC and EWR . Anyone east of JFK and the GSP it`s really going to be hard to see much more than some snow past hr 78 The surface never gets above 34 at the park and falls after hr 84 . Reminds me of Feb 2010 once to the Hudson it`s snow . ( not to those totals ) . This storm has it`s foot on the gas Yup. It's a razor's edge type of storm (which we see often here). Will need a quick thump combined with dynamic cooling. That's still definitely in play. Any more amplified than this solution though, we will be in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I am in nyc and truly being this early in the season I am just happy to track something even if it is slop at the coast its early in the season no need to worry congrats interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I wonder if someone hears thunder with that kind of deepening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 If that run verified the whining on here would reach unbearable proportions. In November? Doubtful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 That fact that you toss a model instead of adding it to your equation show you are just playing to your backyard like you always do.It's easy to toss the NAM. Nobody is tossing the GFS. You can easily see how the GFS is trending towards the Euro. Use your brain instead of your heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 If that run verified the whining on here would reach unbearable proportions. It really shouldn't it's still November after all. Exactly how many times have we seen significant snows in November? I hope people realize this. Also were also assuming the euro is correct which given the storm is still over 3 days away bears further watching especially considering all the other models are a good deal further east. It's quite a storm though despite what happens and i think it's only a positive heading into winter even with a coastal hugher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I wonder if someone hears thunder with that kind of deepening Yea I wouldn't be surprised Paul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Can we move/delete these banter posts please? This is exactly what everyone is talking about with regards to posts that clog the thread, particularly during a model play by play. edit I see they're gone now Back to the storm, I'd say this type of track should not be dismissed. We haven't had as many coastal huggers in recent years but they used to be the norm particularly from 92-94 when the interior got blasted and the coast had snow at the start or the end but mostly a mixed bag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Stronger resistance along the East Coast makes sense given both a muted PNA and +NAO signal correlated to enhanced mid level ridging off the SE Coast. The PNA will be right around neutral for this event. If we had a stronger PNA pulse with some blocking, we'd have ourselves a snowstorm, but that's not the case. I see no reason to dismiss the ECMWF, and in fact, this solution is more reasonable meteorologically due to the weaker western PNA. It allows the Mid-west energy to feed into the short wave without being forced offshore / SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The 12z Euro has a 70kt+ southerly 700mb jet and 700mb temps +3C to +5C from Newark SE during the height of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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