OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Hey at least the new and improved dumpster fire GFS has snow falling in BOS. Still east of the current op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Nice hit for most of you, looks like we can cover the grass maybe. 8-12" Blizz, ORH, Dendrite, Dryslot axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Hey at least the new and improved dumpster fire GFS has snow falling in BOS. Still east of the current op. I think its 5 miles west of 06z........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Hey at least the new and improved dumpster fire GFS has snow falling in BOS. Still east of the current op. What link are you using to view it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 What link are you using to view it? WeatherBell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 GGEM finally came west a bit, a more robust scraper I should call it. Still pretty far east, but it at least now gives advisory snows back to about ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 WeatherBell. Ah okay haha, the site I'm using doesn't have the 12Z up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I like a Euro Ensemble/GFS type solution here. Kicker is fast enough and Western US ridging is flat enough that this probably won't be west of 0z Euro solution, and likely east. Also, really having a hard time imagining the coastal plain seeing more than slop here. Any easterly component, plus a weak 1024mb high to the north with an initially "meh" antecedent air mass smells like trouble to me. Hudson Valley into SW ME may do well though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Baby steps from the baby GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Nice hit for most of you, looks like we can cover the grass maybe. 8-12" Blizz, ORH, Dendrite, Dryslot axis. Seems to be a good starting point..hopefully we can spread those amounts to the coastal plain too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 I like a Euro Ensemble/GFS type solution here. Kicker is fast enough and Western US ridging is flat enough that this probably won't be west of 0z Euro solution, and likely east. Also, really having a hard time imagining the coastal plain seeing more than slop here. Any easterly component, plus a weak 1024mb high to the north with an initially "meh" antecedent air mass smells like trouble to me. Hudson Valley into SW ME may do well though. I think the coastal plain will do just fine away from the immediate coastline given the caveat that the mid-levels are plenty cold enough. There will be a CF on the CP of SNE...to the west of that will snow. Prob like anything N&W of 128 would be fine. Of course, a more amped solution would make it moot with more mid-level intrusion and a further inland CF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I think the coastal plain will do just fine away from the immediate coastline given the caveat that the mid-levels are plenty cold enough. There will be a CF on the CP of SNE...to the west of that will snow. Prob like anything N&W of 128 would be fine. Of course, a more amped solution would make it moot with more mid-level intrusion and a further inland CF. I guess my "coastal plain" is rather vague. I think outside of 128 down to Foxborough and northern Rhode Island would do just fine in this set up. Climo never fails to define that BOS-TAN-HVN coastal front in early season, (relatively) marginal events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I think the coastal plain will do just fine away from the immediate coastline given the caveat that the mid-levels are plenty cold enough. There will be a CF on the CP of SNE...to the west of that will snow. Prob like anything N&W of 128 would be fine. Of course, a more amped solution would make it moot with more mid-level intrusion and a further inland CF. Do you think we are fine down here in Westchester/NYC northern burbs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Too bad this will be an 'in-and-outta here' system. Accumulations would really get a shot in the arm if it could linger a bit. One thing I'll say is it's timed well for those who are traveling on Thanksgiving. A quick shoveling and you're on your way. Great timing for plow drivers, too. They'll be out early clearing driveways and parking lots and will be back home in time for turkey. No fuss, no muss. storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 On the 12z GFS, the CF really would be more right around BOS area to maybe near 128 briefly. As the low develops and moves rapidly NE, that front will move SE. I can envision this as like a 35F start to snow maybe for Ray and 128 area.perhaps even a mix and then drop to near 32 as the heavier stuff moves in. The CF will push SE top near BOS at 00z I think. The CF will pretty much be the rain/snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 1-3 or 2-4 in lower valley at best. Antecedent air mass is nothing to write home about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 12z NAM be like, "What?........ Snowstorm Wednesday?..... Ha?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Too bad this will be an 'in-and-outta here' system. Accumulations would really get a shot in the arm if it could linger a bit. One thing I'll say is it's timed well for those who are traveling on Thanksgiving. A quick shoveling and you're on your way. Great timing for plow drivers, too. They'll be out early clearing driveways and parking lots and will be back home in time for turkey. No fuss, no muss. storm. if you are driving sure! But I'm sure there will be some flight delays.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 1-3 or 2-4 in lower valley at best. Antecedent air mass is nothing to write home about. Boy are you a Debbie downer. You're worse than I am. I just locked in .75" for my hood. What a torch out there today--already 51.3/37. Time to deal with Christmas lights on a spring-like day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 12z NAM be like, "What?........ Snowstorm Wednesday?..... Ha?". That was so 90 minutes ago Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Philly to NYC timing? Seems late morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Boy are you a Debbie downer. You're worse than I am. I just locked in .75" for my hood. What a torch out there today--already 51.3/37. Time to deal with Christmas lights on a spring-like day. Hope your right but you've got latitude and elevation on me. Not an insignificant amount either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 People aren't ready for snow....and having to shop for turkeys and shovels will cause mass hysteria in stores. Get your birds early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I think the coastal plain will do just fine away from the immediate coastline given the caveat that the mid-levels are plenty cold enough. There will be a CF on the CP of SNE...to the west of that will snow. Prob like anything N&W of 128 would be fine. Of course, a more amped solution would make it moot with more mid-level intrusion and a further inland CF. What are your thoughts for this area? Looks like it may be close but I feel like we still do pretty good with a gfs solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The new GFS looks like it's not worth much for coastals at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 T-blizz your longitude may help. You may be a mix or some rain, but you guys could do fairly well if the GFS is right after 00z. Pasty stuff there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 T-blizz your longitude may help. You may be a mix or some rain, but you guys could do fairly well if the GFS is right after 00z. Pasty stuff there too.Thanks. I appreciate it. That's kind of what I thought, looks like high impact stuff on this area. Hopefully euro turns east soonThe CF sometimes tends to set up right around taunton or through it during this early season events. Being west helps for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It's not the most coherent pattern, but there is what appears to be an interesting signal from the ensemble sensitivity stuff coming out of SUNY Stony Brook. If I'm interpreting things correctly (which may not be the case), one of the SLP patterns that explains 20% of the ensemble variance is a deeper, western solution. If you trace back where this uncertainty arises from there seems to a be a good, continuous relationship with the trough south of the Aleutians in the NoPac right now. Unfortunately, we have no hard data to verify if the models are initializing too high or low with heights ahead of that wave. What the uncertainty suggests, is that we want to see higher than modeled heights translate ahead of this wave into BC, then eventually downstream into higher heights over the Southeast (which makes sense for a more westerly track), then higher heights to our north (again makes sense). Initialization: [attachment=139080:SEN_2_NCEP+CMC_Z500_0.0day.gif Four days from now: SEN_2_NCEP+CMC_Z500_4.0day.gif You have a link for that? Pretty cool site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Thanks. I appreciate it. That's kind of what I thought, looks like high impact stuff on this area. Hopefully euro turns east soon It's pretty marginal for awhile, but you will have a 33F paste job for a few hours I think before it cools off. Your longitude early in the season helps. You and I might not be too different. Edge to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Timing couldn't be worse for traveling. Personally I'm probably going to have to drop off the dog now Tuesday and get up really early Wednesday and hope to be on the road such that I could be over the GW before noon. And maybe ensconced in the beautiful surroundings in Princeton before things get out of hand. I'm worried actually. My folks live in Baltimore. I have done the Wed TG drive thing before. 7 hour trip took 13 and that was a good weather Wed. Media could hype this Mon/Tues and tell everyone to get going early. One of those epic things that happened in Atlanta or even Boston a few times. Don't envy your decisions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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