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Didn't we transition to a -PDO regime around the turn of the 21st century?  That would be a somewhat short -PDO regime, if I recall correctly, they usually last 20-30 years.  I think the next several months will be telling if we are transitioning into a +PDO regime.  Could this be like the late 50s?  That was an overall -PDO regime, but had a 2 year period of +PDO values.  

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Didn't we transition to a -PDO regime around the turn of the 21st century?  That would be a somewhat short -PDO regime, if I recall correctly, they usually last 20-30 years.  I think the next several months will be telling if we are transitioning into a +PDO regime.  Could this be like the late 50s?  That was an overall -PDO regime, but had a 2 year period of +PDO values.  

 

There can be transient +PDO spikes within a long-term -PDO cycle.

 

For the sake of CA I hope the PDO can turn negative again.

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Didn't we transition to a -PDO regime around the turn of the 21st century?  That would be a somewhat short -PDO regime, if I recall correctly, they usually last 20-30 years.  I think the next several months will be telling if we are transitioning into a +PDO regime.  Could this be like the late 50s?  That was an overall -PDO regime, but had a 2 year period of +PDO values.

The consensus is that we transitioned, I believe,in 2007, though some use the end of the Super Niño of 1998 as the switchover date. My own evolving view is that the PDO periods were less drastic prior to the 1917 witch to PDO positive and that we may be headed to a less pronounced oscillation.
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I like that you mentioned 1917-18 there. That was a very extreme case but has been on my mind since August. The early frosts in the north and the overall description of that autumn to date are uncannily similar. Didn't actually know about the PDO flip that year but I don't think it to be mere coincidence.

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I like that you mentioned 1917-18 there. That was a very extreme case but has been on my mind since August. The early frosts in the north and the overall description of that autumn to date are uncannily similar. Didn't actually know about the PDO flip that year but I don't think it to be mere coincidence.

Similar time to 1977-9. I don't know that the flip was exactly that year but I believe it was 30 years or so before 1947, the time of the flip in the other direction, towards cold phase.
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