Minnesota Meso Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Diso time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 I meant to add the time frame of Nov 9th to the 11th and include the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. Sorry, that did not come out like I intended it to. If a mod wants to edit the title of the thread please do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 Lets see what the rest of the model suite looks like, but the 11/08 0z run of the Nam has shifted the axis of the heaviest snow well north. I would agree with this solution based on Climo. At this time of the year it's hard to get heavy snow into Northern IA as some of the models have been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 0Z GFS has shifted north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 I meant to add the time frame of Nov 9th to the 11th and include the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. Sorry, that did not come out like I intended it to. If a mod wants to edit the title of the thread please do. You can edit the title yourself. Just open your original post and edit it...it allows you to edit the title as well as the content of your post. I hope this storm works out for you guys. Could be subzero lows if you get a decent snow cover! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 so far in the 12z suite, the NAM is moving a bit further north, the GFS seems almost happy where it is, and the canadian models yet to come out. but whatever the result, it's looking like monday will not be a pleasant day for travelling to/from work in the MSP and STC metros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 so far in the 12z suite, the NAM is moving a bit further north, the GFS seems almost happy where it is, and the canadian models yet to come out. but whatever the result, it's looking like monday will not be a pleasant day for travelling to/from work in the MSP and STC metros. 12Z euro back with the 10-12" snow totals to include Willmar, Twin Cities and into n WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 so the models are generally split, with Canadian furthest south, then GFS, then Euro, then NAM furthest north, if I am interpreting this correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 243 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2014 ...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT... .A POTENT AUTUMN STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A LARGE SWATH OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA...FROM THE MORRIS AND GRANITE FALLS AREAS IN WESTERN MINNESOTA...THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES METRO...TO MUCH OF WESTERN WISCONSIN CAN EXPECT 8 TO 12 INCHES OF WET SNOW FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY... MOST OF WHICH WILL FALL FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE DAY MONDAY...INCLUDING BOTH THE MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTES. FURTHER INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...LESSER AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...AND THIS INCLUDES THE NEW ULM...MANKATO AND OWATONNA AREAS. IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH MAY CREATE BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE WITH THIS BEING THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM OF THE SEASON. EXPECT TRAVEL ON MONDAY TO BE HEAVILY IMPACTED...AND TRAVEL MAY BE IMPACTED LONGER AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGING IN BEHIND THIS STORM MAY KEEP ICY PATCHES OF COMPACTED SNOW ON THE ROADS. MNZ044-045-047>070-WIZ014>016-023>028-090500- /O.NEW.KMPX.WS.A.0007.141110T0300Z-141111T1800Z/ MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI- CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT- HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD- SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN- PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PRINCETON...MORA...MORRIS...GLENWOOD... ST. CLOUD...FOLEY...ELK RIVER...CAMBRIDGE...CENTER CITY... MADISON...BENSON...MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR...LITCHFIELD... MONTICELLO...MINNEAPOLIS...BLAINE...ST. PAUL...STILLWATER... GRANITE FALLS...OLIVIA...HUTCHINSON...GAYLORD...CHASKA... SHAKOPEE...BURNSVILLE...AMERY...BALSAM LAKE...RICE LAKE... BARRON...LADYSMITH...HUDSON...NEW RICHMOND...RIVER FALLS... PRESCOTT...MENOMONIE...BOYCEVILLE...DURAND...PEPIN... CHIPPEWA FALLS...BLOOMER...EAU CLAIRE...ALTOONA 243 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * TIMING...SNOW WILL START LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TAPERING OFF TUESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. * SNOW ACCUMULATION...8 TO 12 INCHES. * OTHER IMPACTS...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH MAY PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW. TRAVEL MAY BE HAZARDOUS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY THE MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTES. THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW WHICH MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SHOVEL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 so the models are generally split, with Canadian furthest south, then GFS, then Euro, then NAM furthest north, if I am interpreting this correctly. 18Z RGEM has shifted north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 18Z RGEM has shifted north. just saw that. i am starting to think that somewhere near the current GFS solution may be where things start to converge to as it seems to be the mid-way point in the models. and with the better sampling of the system starting up tonight and becoming certain in the morning, the tracks should start converging. but I am not buying the furthest north solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 issued by MPX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 just got bumped up to a winter storm warning from Canby to Eau Clare, and Ladysmith to Morris, including St Cloud, Willmar, Redwood Falls, and the entire Twin Cities Metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Obvious trend in the GFS to make the initial s/w dig deeper, and pull back forward the start time and a slight N trend. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014110900/gfs_z500_vort_us_comp36.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 This could end up being quite the "spread the wealth" type storm. I don't buy the NAM depiction of all the banded precip falling over the same location. The ECMWF seems more reasonable with upper level frontogenesis dominating ahead of the leading wave followed by stronger low level forcing as the shortwave digs in...which would shift where the heavier precip would fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 First winter storm of the season...4" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Just a front down here, but the impending temperature drop is up to 60F tonight in some places. Figured this was the most relevant thread. Plains weather never ceases to amaze me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Man, you guys take your busts in stride. If what happened yesterday at MSP happened in the NYC Metro, all hell would have broken loose. Sorry about the dryslot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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