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powderfreak

NNE Winter Thread

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Am I reading that correctly?  -35 850s?  How would that translate to the surface?

Probalby a lot of lows of -15F to -25F. I'd assume the top of Mansfield is close to H85. Those who go calm have a shot at -30F. MEX right now is -26F at SLK, -24F at BML, and -22F at MVL...and we're still at d4.

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Probalby a lot of lows of -15F to -25F. I'd assume the top of Mansfield is close to H85. Those who go calm have a shot at -30F. MEX right now is -26F at SLK, -24F at BML, and -22F at MVL...and we're still at d4.

Brrrrr. That's almost wake up at 2am and run the car battery for a while territory.

And yeah, Mansfield usually falls close to 850mb to 875mb range.

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Brrrrr. That's almost wake up at 2am and run the car battery for a while territory.

And yeah, Mansfield usually falls close to 850mb to 875mb range.

 

 

I've never really seen Mansfield Summit reaching the coldest readings ...-35F at 850 prob. verifies to -20F or so at the max.  Sounds fun. 

Prob. will go skinning and see it. 

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We lost the battle here. Ahh well. Hopefully a snow shower will give us a quick dusting overnight :weenie:

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I've never really seen Mansfield Summit reaching the coldest readings ...-35F at 850 prob. verifies to -20F or so at the max.  Sounds fun. 

Prob. will go skinning and see it. 

 

I bet if H85 verifies at -35C (-31F), the summit will be close... -25F to -30F.

 

I've seen -30F ambient with wind on the summit before... these real brutal cold shots tend to max out briefly around -22F to -26F, but then hold in the negative teens, sort of what you alluded too.  But it also doesn't quite hit the modeled extreme of -35C at H85.

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Skiing was really good this morning...didn't see a crust like Borderwx did. It was just a light zipper crust but was broken up with ease and in the trees there was no crust.

 

5-6" on the hill, though now it's rain at the summit (40F) and freezing rain at the base (28F).

 

We headed up to Bolton this morning for some turns, and indeed the new snow made for some really good skiing as PF said.  With the uncertainty of precipitation types in this part of the system, we didn't get up to the mountain until around mid morning, but I'm sure an even earlier start would have been better with respect to getting the driest powder.  Similar to Stowe, we didn’t find any notable crust to contend with; the main thing to watch for in terms of snow quality was rising temperatures as the morning went on.  I did a check on the new accumulation at the top of the Vista Quad at around 3,150' and found 5-6" right there, and that's right in line with their snow report.  There were some spits of rain here and there while we were on the hill, but for the most part it was just cloudy, so it was good to have the bulk of the precipitation on the frozen end of the storm.  The best situation would have been to have temperatures stay below freezing all day of course, but it's another storm in the books, another shot of liquid equivalent into the base, and there was some decent skiing to be had:

 

04JAN15A.jpg

 

Going forward, it looks like the pattern will be pretty active with various disturbances and chances for snow.  I grabbed some text from the BTV NWS forecast discussion talking about some of the additional opportunities for snow this week, starting overnight with the back end of this system:

 

AS COLDER AIR IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS...WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOCALIZED SQUALLS OVERNIGHT.

 

A Clipper system on Tuesday:

 

CLOUDS RETURN QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA....BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF INCHES EXPECTED.

 

An arctic front on Tuesday night:

 

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE REGION LATE. POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS WITH THE FRONT.

 

Another Clipper on Wednesday:

 

WEDNESDAY: FIRST CLIPPER LOW SKIRTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OPTED TO GO WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW-LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME, THOUGH ANTECEDENT AIR MASS IS RATHER DRY. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE LOW, LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH LAYER (WHICH IS NEAR THE GROUND) WILL CAP SNOW AMOUNTS TO A COUPLE OF INCHES OR LESS.

 

And then another Clipper on Thursday Night/Friday:

 

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS PERIOD.

 

The discussion also talks about lake-effect snows into the weekend, but that may not have much effect here in the Northern Greens based on a quick look at the wind flow on the models.

 

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND: GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS WILL AGAIN AFFECT THE TYPICAL LAKE-EFFECT AREAS INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES DO INCREASE SOME BUT WILL STILL GENERALLY AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.

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Event totals: 4.1” Snow/0.60" L.E.

 

There was an additional 0.04" of liquid here at our location during the day today, but the additional precipitation after the snow in this area has been pretty minimal, and the storm has been >90% frozen.

 

The regional radar shows that precipitation is changing over to snow just across the lake to the west, and there's more precipitation upstream, presumably in association with the arctic front pushing into the area:

 

04JAN15A.gif

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The upcoming pattern is looking favorable for arctic waterspout activity on Lake Champlain. It appears conditions will be best with arctic air and light NW-N winds in place early Tuesday morning and again later Wednesday afternoon and early Thursday morning (with the coldest air in place). The best location is typically toward the southern end of the lake (Whallon Bay, between Charlotte, VT and Essex, NY). Convective cloud depths and associated updrafts are stronger with the longer lake fetch, so those factors are maximized in that area with a northerly wind component. These waterspouts are caused by extreme instability over the relatively warm water (42F at Diamond Island as of Sunday, 1/4/15) and vertical stretching with the convective updrafts. While such whirls are relatively weak, they are interesting anomalies and potentially photogenic. Here is a past example: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/events/15Jan2009/images.shtml

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We are back to bare ground now. No gain from this one. As I said I hate front end systems.

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Looks like MPV topped out at 47F last hour, down to 44F. My home thermometer got up to 43F and is back down to 40F. Usually if there is a difference, I'm a bit warmer. MPV's location is pretty exposed though and they can torch in situations like this one. My thermo is also a cheap, off the shelf one that's not sited particularly well either. Anyway, it seems as if the worst is over and this area will end up with net, albeit small, gain in snow pack.

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Event totals: 4.2” Snow/0.61" L.E.

 

We picked up a tenth of an inch of graupel last night around midnight as the temperatures came down and those winds started blowing through.  I'm keeping that precipitation as part of the back end of the most recent system since it cleared out after that.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 28.9 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 3.0"

 

I just checked on the seasonal snowfall progress after this most recent storm; the additional snow at least helped to hold pace somewhat, so the numbers stand at around half a foot below average.

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Ginxy windblown snow special out there this morning.  Looks like we picked up about 1/4" of snow overnight though I couldn't really measure with the wind.  Are there specific parameters for WINDEX events or is that something specific to this board like SWFE?

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Well we may have been punched in the gut with no net gain here out of this storm, but the winds are pretty impressive this morning with many 40 mph gusts (probably some higher). Bare ground and cold to start this week.

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Ginxy windblown snow special out there this morning. Looks like we picked up about 1/4" of snow overnight though I couldn't really measure with the wind. Are there specific parameters for WINDEX events or is that something specific to this board like SWFE?

WINDEX is not an event itself, it's a index made of parameters that make snow squalls more likely. It's used for forecasting snow squalls. So there isn't any real verification of it. We can just look and see if WINDEX parameters were high to see if it fit the typical criteria or if the snow squalls were from like les streamers and upslope or something.

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Ginxy windblown snow special out there this morning.  Looks like we picked up about 1/4" of snow overnight though I couldn't really measure with the wind.  Are there specific parameters for WINDEX events or is that something specific to this board like SWFE?

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ssd/erps/ta/ta93-11a.1.pdf

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WINDEX is not an event itself, it's a index made of parameters that make snow squalls more likely. It's used for forecasting snow squalls. So there isn't any real verification of it. We can just look and see if WINDEX parameters were high to see if it fit the typical criteria or if the snow squalls were from like les streamers and upslope or something.

 

 

Thank you both.

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Brrrrr. That's almost wake up at 2am and run the car battery for a while territory.

And yeah, Mansfield usually falls close to 850mb to 875mb range.

 

Pop the battery out of your car and bring it inside for the night. 

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