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powderfreak

NNE Winter Thread

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The latest BTV NWS maps related to the upcoming storm are below – the Winter Weather Advisory has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning, and advisories have been put in place for the rest of the area.  An excerpt from the latest BTV NWS forecast discussion mentions the changes:

 

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA, BUT HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. NEW WARNING AREA INCLUDES ALL OF EASTERN VERMONT, INCLUDING EASTERN ADDISON/RUTLAND COUNTIES AS WELL AS ESSEX COUNTY OF NEW YORK WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WE`LL SEE NEAR WARNING CRITERIA SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-7" AND 1-2 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION. ELSEWHERE THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR A GENERAL 3-5" OF SNOW AND UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE...MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

 

03JAN15A.jpg

 

In terms of projected snowfall accumulations, the notable changes in the latest map are the expansion of that 6-8" shading east of the Greens in Lamoille County and stretching off toward the Northeast Kingdom.

 

03JAN15B.jpg

 

For our location, the point forecast for accumulation was bumped a couple of inches to roughly the 4-8" range for the front end of the system, with 5.4" showing up on the hourly weather graph.

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So is mixing imminent in the mountains too?

 

Yes, the mixed precipitation from this storm isn't because the lower elevations are going to get warm, it's because the higher elevations (even above our mountain elevations here in VT) are going to get warm.  That's what gives the sleet and freezing rain (warm air above cold air).  Storms where the mountains may not mix are when just the valleys are warm, and in those storms the precipitation types will be just snow and rain.  But if you see any sleet/freezing rain in the forecast, that's typically going to be an issue at all elevations.

 

Even though all elevations are susceptible to mixed precipitation in these systems, a decent outcome is often possible if most of the precipitation falls as snow, and then the precipitation is essentially done by the time the warm air arrives in the higher elevations.

 

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Thanks for the report J.Spin on Bolton! Good to see some improvement on the Wilderness side (at least a little). That exit off the chair was quite fun when it was mostly ice up there LOL.

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I'm all good to ski some some soft dense snow tomorrow. My concern is whether there will be a crust in the morning. Don't like crust, except on pizza and pie.

This one of those systems where I'm just rooting for a net gain. And my completely unscientific take is we have ahold shot. Need something on top of the old base anyway.

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I'm all good to ski some some soft dense snow tomorrow. My concern is whether there will be a crust in the morning. Don't like crust, except on pizza and pie.

This one of those systems where I'm just rooting for a net gain. And my completely unscientific take is we have ahold shot. Need something on top of the old base anyway.

I'm anticipating crust in the morning...late grooming on main routes, natural snow trails could be good or awful depending on how stout the crust is. But it does warm up during the day so that may help.

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Took a hike up Saddleback Mountain near Rangeley this morning in advance of the storm. First time hiking up and down ski trails (feels like cheating). Beautiful day with wind under 5mph, skies becoming cloudy and temp of -1F. I would have liked to head over to The Horn, but my toes were tingling. Putting this one on my summer to-do list :)

20150103_105306_zps5xfvhzj9.jpg

20150103_105922_20150103123825210_zpsz8o

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Are we going to get above freezing in the usual CAD places tomorrow?  Looks like lots of ice.  Hopefully we can mix out and get everything up before the refreeze!

We'll easily get above freezing. You and I should get into the 40s at some point.

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Flurries falling now...we'll see what happens.

 

I just looked out and realized that we've got snow falling here as well – not sure what time it first started though.

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Snow started at my brother-in-law's in Moretown around 2:30. Just got home and nothing here yet. I'll echo Hitman, just looking for a net gain.

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Snowing here. 15f. Don't want to believ we'll warm 25 degrees in the next 12 hours but the atmosphere will do, what it will do. Would be nice to have a powder day tomorrow after what we've been dealing with since the grinch came to town. You know, like, a little something for the effort, lama.

2 football games to watch with snow falling so I won't complain.

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Snowing at a good rate here now. Overall it has been more of a sugar consistency so far.

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Snowing at a good rate here now. Overall it has been more of a sugar consistency so far.

 

Yeah the obs from BTV seem decent with 1/2sm Moderate Snow.  Nothing impressive over here, just a steady light snow.  Flakes are quite small.

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Finally looking like winter again on the mountain after the Christmas Thaw.  Hopefully tomorrow we can keep some snow/ice on the trees for the aesthetics.  Here's a photo from today, with 9" in the last 7 days of nickle and dime stuff, and cold temps around 0F, it finally had that deep winter feel.

 

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Impressive cold coming later this week, as noted by others. BTV used "unseasonably" to describe the cold. Why do they (and others, as I saw this term used by Los Angeles forecasters during the recent cold and snowy weather in the Southland) use this term, when there's no other season that cold of this magnitude can occur?

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Impressive cold coming later this week, as noted by others. BTV used "unseasonably" to describe the cold. Why do they (and others, as I saw this term used by Los Angeles forecasters during the recent cold and snowy weather in the Southland) use this term, when there's no other season that cold of this magnitude can occur?

Agreed. Typical media. I expect it to be cold in January. Nothing extraordinary coming

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C'mon guys...it's a long used term to indicate well above or below normal temps. -30C 850s in NNE is not typical January weather.

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Impressive cold coming later this week, as noted by others. BTV used "unseasonably" to describe the cold. Why do they (and others, as I saw this term used by Los Angeles forecasters during the recent cold and snowy weather in the Southland) use this term, when there's no other season that cold of this magnitude can occur?

 

Agreed. Typical media. I expect it to be cold in January. Nothing extraordinary coming

 

It means "not normal" with respect to climate averages... its used all the time in forecasts as a way to describe temperatures relative to what they should be in the given season.  This cold will be below normal, possibly well below normal, thus its not seasonable (not average), or unseasonable.

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C'mon guys...it's a long used term to indicate well above or below normal temps. -30C 850s in NNE is not typical January weather.

I know that it's long used, and not saying it's media hype. Just wondering why they don't use 'unusually' when the cold is occurring within the winter months. If it was dropping below freezing in July or reaching 65F in late February, then I'd understand the use of the word.

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2" even here now...snowing really nicely.  These events are fun as they are just a wall of warm air advection over the arctic air at the surface.  Even though it'll change to rain and even torch briefly, the front ends of these southwest flow events are fun to watch come in.  Some solid liquid equivalent in this snow.

 

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