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powderfreak

NNE Winter Thread

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32.0F light freezing rain.  Just hit 32F for the first time since precip began. Nice glaze on the trees.  Now the melting will start.  I can never underestimate CAD here.  Like Brian has noted many times my high will come after fropa.  Can't believe how dark it was today.  What makes it seem darker is that we usually have snowcover by early Dec through January so there is some reflectivity off the ground.  These later November days don't have that.

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Slop storm number one of the season...raining steadily but still mixing with sleet from time to time. Mansfield shows 28F at summit and 33F at base, so there's enough of a freezing layer in there to result in some IP mixing with the rain.

Hoping we can hold this little snow for the cold shot this week. Not melting quick but just water-logged. Maybe we can salvage some white coating this week.

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Slop storm number one of the season...raining steadily but still mixing with sleet from time to time. Mansfield shows 28F at summit and 33F at base, so there's enough of a freezing layer in there to result in some IP mixing with the rain.

Hoping we can hold this little snow for the cold shot this week. Not melting quick but just water-logged. Maybe we can salvage some white coating this week.

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PF, I definately think you will hold on to that snow.  Once it goes below freezing waterlogged snow becomes that grandular cement that is hard to melt.  Very different than 2" of powder that goes away with a bit of sun.

 

Im up to 32.2F with lots of dripping branches and cold rain. Still thin snowcover.  Probably will stay coated in the shade and woods but my cover is so thin any sun will take care of it.

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Enjoy whatever you get this week because the torch cometh next week (briefly anyway). The Euro has a 970's bomb over WI next Mon morning.

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PF, I definately think you will hold on to that snow. Once it goes below freezing waterlogged snow becomes that grandular cement that is hard to melt. Very different than 2" of powder that goes away with a bit of sun.

Im up to 32.2F with lots of dripping branches and cold rain. Still thin snowcover. Probably will stay coated in the shade and woods but my cover is so thin any sun will take care of it.

Haha it is different than powder. That 2" of good snow growth stuff we got on Thursday night came out to 20:1 ratio snow and that burned off sunny areas quickly. Today we get 1.4" and it's been pouring rain and not much has melted at all. You walk through it and you've got a puddle in your foot-print, but hopefully we can lock this up. Still slush in driveways and parking lots, like that translucent slush puppy consistency, but if that freezes could be slick in spots.

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As of now I am scheduled to be off Thursday and I am considering chasing round 2 of the Lake Effect in NY off Ontario.

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As of now I am scheduled to be off Thursday and I am considering chasing round 2 of the Lake Effect in NY off Ontario.

Nice!

 

My daughter just got stationed at Fort Drum, I am so jealous of her.  Funny part is she does not like the snow at all....LOL.  I am def going to try and plan a trip out there during one of these events.

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0.8" when I measured this morning at 6am.  No accumulation today.

 

You didn't have any additional accumulation after 6am?

 

Anyway, seems to be pouring out there now, at least by the sounds of the water rattling through the gutters right now.

 

Nov_17_zpscd7abnca.gif

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7:50pm  32.3F cloudy.  Rain just ended.  Total storm   .82" rain and melted snow.  Got about 1/2" of snow, still some on the ground.

 

Highest temp during storm was 32.4F.  We would had significant ice if it were a degree or two colder.

Unfortunately this is how it usually works out with not much of a high in place to feed some low level CAA/dry air. We all just climb to and hover around 31-33F due to latent heating.

 

We should both climb higher a bit later once the front goes through.

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Event totals: 1.3” Snow/0.35" L.E.

 

I cored today's snow accumulation at 6:00 P.M., and it was of course slushy and dense with the addition of the sleet and rain today.  There was a good shot of additional liquid in the rain gauge as well, bringing the total liquid equivalent for the event to about a third of an inch.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.07 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 7.1

Snow Density: 14.0% H2O

Temperature: 35.8 F

Sky: Light Rain

Snow at the stake: Trace

 

There aren't any major storms expected in the area this week, but the forecast certainly suggests plenty of opportunities for snow with the lakes firing up and some short waves passing through later in the week:

 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 420 PM EST MONDAY...AGAIN THE BIG TICKET ITEM IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE COLD AIR THAT WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES THAT PASS THROUGH AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY EVENING EARLY THURSDAY AND THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA QUITE QUICKLY THAT EVENING ON THURSDAY. AS THAT FINAL ARTIC SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY RUNNING 12-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

 

We'll just have to see how much moisture makes it over this way from the lakes, but the temperatures would certainly argue for precipitation be on the snowy side, and our graphical point forecast shows some of the chances:

 

17NOV14B.jpg

 

The Mansfield point forecast even notes accumulations over the next couple of days, and you can see the moisture hitting Northern Vermont on some of the forecast models.  We'll just have to see how it goes, but as of this evening's report, the snow at the Mt. Mansfield Stake had increased by two inches, and I suspect that wasn't just fluff based on the way this current system behaved with respect to mixed precipitation - the liquid data say that the ratio on that new snow was denser than 10 to 1 for what that's site's collections are worth.

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You didn't have any additional accumulation after 6am?

 

Anyway, seems to be pouring out there now, at least by the sounds of the water rattling through the gutters right now.

 

I might have but it was long gone by the time I got home from work

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We've cleared out, but haven't mixed out at the sfc yet. We're slowly radiationally cooling...32.5F. Big time black ice right now too.

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Black ice this morning for a miserable commute. I saw quite a few accidents. One particular nasty one in Bath near the New Meadow River on Route 1. Car on its side down in a ravine.

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Froude numbers must be high.

 

Oh yeah, local WRF has them at 2.2 at 9z, 1.7 at 12z, and then outrageously high by afternoon.

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3/4" at home with plenty of black ice down in the valley.  Plows made several passes early this morning.  

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From our friends at CAR ...

 

2 INCHES OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED AT CARIBOU YESTERDAY
BRINGING THE MONTHLY TOTAL TO 17.9 INCHES...WHICH IS 13.6 INCHES
ABOVE NORMAL. IT NOW RANKS AS THE 13TH SNOWIEST NOVEMBER ON
RECORD. ONLY 1.9 INCHES OF SNOW IS NEEDED THE REMAINDER OF THE
MONTH TO MOVE INTO THE TOP 10 SNOWIEST NOVEMBERS ON RECORD.
 

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Black ice this morning for a miserable commute. I saw quite a few accidents. One particular nasty one in Bath near the New Meadow River on Route 1. Car on its side down in a ravine.

 

Only saw one, SUV parked (right side up) in the ditch about 5 miles from home.  Yesterday was classic "November-y" wx, gloomy and dark, 32/29 with 0.39" LE, mostly RA/ZR (with temps a fraction either side of 32) after 1/2" snow.

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Event totals: 0.8” Snow/0.31" L.E.

 

It felt a bit like the twilight zone at the house this morning, at least in the "weather" way that makes you wonder if you forgot to clear the snowboards and rain gauge the previous day.  I got up to find that we'd received a decent shot of snow, and it was quite obvious because any areas in the yard that had melted out yesterday were once again covered in white.  I'm used to unexpected snow accumulations in our area along the spine of the Greens, but they're generally fluffy upslope snow, not what I found out there today.  There was 0.8" of new snow on the snowboard this morning, and not only was it not fluff, it was the antithesis of fluff.  I could see that it was very dense, and there was even a bit of liquid present in the lowest layers, so being unsure of exactly what went on last night, I also thawed the contents of the rain gauge to cover all my bases.  Indeed the newly accumulated snow was dense, with that 0.8" containing 0.22" of liquid.  And, there was even more that must have fallen in liquid form before it fully changed over to snow, because the rain gauge caught almost a third of an inch of new liquid since I emptied it yesterday evening.  I was a bit flummoxed by how much was in there, worrying that I hadn’t emptied the gauge last night, but I know I did because I'd documented it all at 6:00 P.M.  It was just strange because I hadn’t seen any signs of precipitation when I headed off to bed at midnight, and there were just a few stray flakes around when I got up this morning, but somehow in the intervening period, a covert third of an inch of precipitation came down.  I don’t even know exactly when it happened, but it was probably coming down rather vigorously there for a bit.  My best guess is that we got into one of the lake-effect bands from Lake Ontario, since the flow has been pointed this way.  We did pick up another couple of tenths of an inch of snow before I headed out this morning, and indeed that was very fluffy, but that's the only addition I've seen so far.  I'm considering this as the start of a new event, since it appears to be LES derived, and the previous system finished off yesterday.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.8 inches

New Liquid: 0.22 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 3.6

Snow Density: 27.5% H2O

Temperature: 29.7 F

Sky: Occasional snowflakes

Snow at the stake: 1.0"

 

On my drive westward this morning, any snow on the ground had tapered off by Jonesville, and from there all the way to Burlington it's mostly green grass with the occasional dusting in spots.

 

Our point forecast does call for 1-2 inches today, and another 1-3 inches tonight.  Those number are likely going to be very hit or miss with the nature of this precipitation, but we did already hit the low end of today's forecast.  The Mansfield point forecast actually sums to 3-7 inches today into tonight, but I'm sure it's just the computers spitting out numbers that are likely very dependent on if they get into the LES flow.  It actually looks like the bands may have been hitting this area earlier, but they've moved north and right now they appear to be hitting more up toward Jay Peak:

 

18NOV14A.gif

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Few snow squalls this AM briefly whitened the ground again.  Snow on ground remained today above 1200 feet.  Ice level trees on mountains is around 1500 feet.  Had to go down to Concord.  Looked like they plowed Rt 93 down to the hill just south of Exit 22.  The Sanborton parking lot north of Exit 20 is plowed but I could not see any remaining snow in the woods once I got to Dendrite Land around Exit 20.

 

Very windy up on the hill today.  My SW/W exposure gave me the full gusts.  40mph was the peak gust on the Davis.

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