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Historic Lake Effect Snowstorm


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I think early next week might be the most impressive lake-effect period

 

I saw that as well, but didn't want to mention it as it seemed far to early. You and your short put pointed posts are the best. ^_^

 

60 and sunny today. Felt absolutely incredible after a long stretch of cloudy days. Went for a nice run today as I had off of work. Tomorrow I also have off and looking forward to going Frisbee golfing. Supposed to be 65-68 and sunny!! Then reality sets in.

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Looks like about Monday night is the chance for Buffalo Metro for get lake snows. GFS has been fairly consistent on that. Still 160 hrs away though, so not getting too hopeful. In my paltry LES obsessive experience, NAM/WRF verifies the best by far.

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Leelee, on 11 Nov 2014 - 01:24 AM, said:

Looks like about Monday night is the chance for Buffalo Metro for get lake snows. GFS has been fairly consistent on that. Still 160 hrs away though, so not getting too hopeful. In my paltry LES obsessive experience, NAM/WRF verifies the best by far.

Fingers crossed haha :snowing:

 

 

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN BRING A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH

THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD

LIGHT SNOW. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM A FRESH BATCH OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR

AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALL LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE

EFFECT THAN THIS WEEK. THE POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ALSO

SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG FETCH WEST OR EVEN SOUTHWEST FLOW.

STAY TUNED.

 

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I'm not trying to bring anyone down. There's positives to Buffalo, partly why I returned here from Arizona, especially for weather enthusiasts like this guy.

And I grew up in the city... well, I'll just stop now, this won't go well lol.

 

Snow on Monday!

 

GEM is still going bonkers, GFS is on-board as well. Will be interesting to watch this one unfold. Hoping OSU talks about this possible event soon.

 

gem_asnow_neus_40.png

 

gem_apcpn_neus_40.png

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BuffaloWeather, on 12 Nov 2014 - 12:29 AM, said:

Euro is on board as well but seems like a south-town/south event. Where most of the others seem like most of Erie county gets hit.

 

IF THE SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM MATERIALIZES LIKE WE BELIEVE IT

MAY...IT SHOULD PRODUCE A QUICK 3-6 HOUR BURST OF MODERATE SNOW OFF

LAKE ERIE FOCUSED ON THURSDAY MORNING. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS

BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO WSW DURING THIS TIME FRAME...SO EXPECT

THIS TO IMPACT SOUTHERN ERIE AND WESTERN WYOMING COUNTIES SOUTHWARD

INTO PORTIONS OF CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. SOME OF THIS

MAY GET INTO THE MORE DISTANT BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS FROM HAMBURG TO

EAST AURORA FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD STAY JUST

SOUTH OF THE CITY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR

MUCH ACCUMULATION AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...SO EXPECT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS

TO BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS

ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM THE LAKE. WITH THIS IN MIND WE

WILL HOIST A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE AREAS OUTLINED ABOVE.

DURING THE AFTERNOON LAKE EFFECT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH AND OUT OF

SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS THE DEEPER

SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE MOVES OFF.

 

FWIW the 6z nam bufkit data has the winds start out at 248..

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MONDAY...THE GULF LOW WILL MOVE UP THE COAST WITH WEAK LIFT

THROUGHOUT WESTERN NY...BUT ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW LIKELY

ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY.

THEN THINGS START TO GET INTERESTING.

COLD AIR BEGINS TO SURGE INTO THE REGION AS A NEAR CROSS POLAR FLOW

ALOFT DEVELOPS...WITH ANTICIPATED LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT ON A

ROUGHLY 260 FLOW SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

ENSEMBLE/CLIMATIC CHARTS SHOW THIS TO BE AN UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED

PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG

MESOSCALE/LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IF THIS PANS

OUT...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WOULD FALL SQUARELY ON SOUTHERN ERIE AND

MOST OF WYOMING COUNTY. WITH MODELS OFTEN SHOWING A SLIGHT SOUTHERN

BIAS...THIS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS AND SOME

LOCALES FURTHER NORTH...BUT THIS IS STILL FOUR DAYS OUT AND DETAILS

ARE STILL VAGUE. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE SNOWS MAY GET STARTED

OVER THE TUG HILL BY TUESDAY MORNING.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
A POTENTIALLY STRONG...LONG-LIVED LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY BE UNDERWAY

EAST OF BOTH LAKES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH FEET OF SNOW

POSSIBLE UNDER THE LAKE BANDS. ALL THE ELEMENTS ARE IN PLACE...AT

LEAST FROM A LOWER RESOLUTION MODEL AND PATTERN RECOGNITION

PERSPECTIVE.

THIS EVENT...SHOULD IT PAN OUT AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...MAY LAST WELL

INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH BACKING FLOW/NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE

BANDS...FOCUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO METRO BUFFALO/WATERTOWN AS

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

AT SOME POINT...THIS EVENT SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME...WITH WEAK

RIDGING EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW TOPPED LOCALIZED LAKE

EFFECT MAY BE ONGOING THROUGH THIS PERIOD THOUGH AS IS OFTEN THE

CASE...AT LEAST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SNOW IN

THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH LESS IF ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER

ELSEWHERE.

:pimp:

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260 flow is the best for me. Looks like meandering bands most of the week. Tomorrows event looks meh. 1-2 inches here at most.

Never really liked the setup IMO, I'm keeping my eye on Monday night to Tuesday things look to get interesting at that time frame. Hopefully models won't back off on those 850 temps..

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THEN THINGS START TO GET INTERESTING.

COLD AIR BEGINS TO SURGE INTO THE REGION AS A NEAR CROSS POLAR FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS...WITH ANTICIPATED LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT ON A
ROUGHLY 260 FLOW SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLE/CLIMATIC CHARTS SHOW THIS TO BE AN UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
MESOSCALE/LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IF THIS PANS
OUT...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WOULD FALL SQUARELY ON SOUTHERN ERIE AND
MOST OF WYOMING COUNTY. WITH MODELS OFTEN SHOWING A SLIGHT SOUTHERN
BIAS...THIS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS AND SOME
LOCALES FURTHER NORTH...BUT THIS IS STILL DAYS OUT AND DETAILS ARE
STILL VAGUE. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE SNOWS MAY GET STARTED OVER
THE TUG HILL BY TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A POTENTIALLY STRONG...LONG-LIVED LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY BE UNDERWAY
EAST OF BOTH LAKES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH FEET OF SNOW
POSSIBLE UNDER THE LAKE BANDS. ALL THE ELEMENTS ARE IN PLACE...AT
LEAST FROM A LOWER RESOLUTION MODEL AND PATTERN RECOGNITION
PERSPECTIVE.

THIS EVENT...SHOULD IT PAN OUT AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...MAY LAST WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH BACKING FLOW/NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
BANDS...FOCUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO METRO BUFFALO/WATERTOWN AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

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THEN THINGS START TO GET INTERESTING.

COLD AIR BEGINS TO SURGE INTO THE REGION AS A NEAR CROSS POLAR FLOW

ALOFT DEVELOPS...WITH ANTICIPATED LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT ON A

ROUGHLY 260 FLOW SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

ENSEMBLE/CLIMATIC CHARTS SHOW THIS TO BE AN UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED

PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG

MESOSCALE/LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IF THIS PANS

OUT...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WOULD FALL SQUARELY ON SOUTHERN ERIE AND

MOST OF WYOMING COUNTY. WITH MODELS OFTEN SHOWING A SLIGHT SOUTHERN

BIAS...THIS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS AND SOME

LOCALES FURTHER NORTH...BUT THIS IS STILL DAYS OUT AND DETAILS ARE

STILL VAGUE. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE SNOWS MAY GET STARTED OVER

THE TUG HILL BY TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

A POTENTIALLY STRONG...LONG-LIVED LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY BE UNDERWAY

EAST OF BOTH LAKES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH FEET OF SNOW

POSSIBLE UNDER THE LAKE BANDS. ALL THE ELEMENTS ARE IN PLACE...AT

LEAST FROM A LOWER RESOLUTION MODEL AND PATTERN RECOGNITION

PERSPECTIVE.

THIS EVENT...SHOULD IT PAN OUT AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...MAY LAST WELL

INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH BACKING FLOW/NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE

BANDS...FOCUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO METRO BUFFALO/WATERTOWN AS

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

That's the same AFD as yesterday afternoon, i guess they never updated it?

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From Tom Niziol that used to work at the Buf NWS:

 

If I wasn't excited before, Tom has gotten my attention. I will be chasing this if it ends up south of me. (After work) But based on model guidance I should be in a good spot.

 

1402878_662637943849566_7621849650521842

It looks like you'll be right on the jackpot, very close call for the city.. let's see what the latest AFD says :snowing:

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Hot off the press

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY338 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2014NYZ010>012-021-160445-/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0008.141117T2300Z-141119T1700Z/NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-ALLEGANY-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...WELLSVILLE338 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2014...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGHWEDNESDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECTSNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGHWEDNESDAY MORNING.* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE...GENESEE...WYOMING...AND ALLEGANY  COUNTIES.* TIMING...EARLY MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING ONE TO TWO FEET OR  MORE IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.* IMPACTS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT  TRAVEL AT TIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK.* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH  RESPECT TO THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT  SNOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ISPOSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OFWEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILSCAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.&&$$HITCHCOCK/JJR
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY338 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2014NYZ006-008-160445-/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0008.141117T2300Z-141119T1700Z//O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-141115T2300Z/OSWEGO-LEWIS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...LOWVILLE338 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2014...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM ESTTHIS EVENING......LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGHWEDNESDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECTSNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGHWEDNESDAY MORNING.* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO AND LEWIS COUNTIES. GREATEST AMOUNTS FOR THE  ADVISORY FROM NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY TO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR THE ADVISORY. MONDAY  EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE WATCH.* ACCUMULATIONS...ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH EARLY THIS  EVENING. SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING ONE FOOT OR MORE IN THE  MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY  MORNING.* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES THIS EVENING.* IMPACTS...OCCASIONAL MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL RESULT IN  SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THIS INCLUDES  INTERSTATE 81 FROM PARISH TO THE JEFFERSON COUNTY LINE. HEAVY  LAKE EFFECT SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT  TRAVEL AT TIMES.* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH  RESPECT TO THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT  SNOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWIN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILLBE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES INROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INBUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO [email protected] THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAGBUFWXA LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ISPOSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OFWEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILSCAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.&&
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